Who can still win the 2025 U.S. Open? Analyzing the field at Oakmont

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OAKMONT, Pa. — Of the five men at or below par following the third round of the 2025 U.S. Open, only one has won a major championship.

That’s Adam Scott, the 2013 Masters champion who would be the second-oldest U.S. Open winner.

Besides him, there’s leader Sam Burns, a five-time PGA Tour winner who has one career top 10 in a major; Viktor Hovland, who has three previous top-five major finishes but zero wins; J.J. Spaun, who missed the cut in his only other U.S. Open appearance; and Carlos Ortiz, who hasn’t played in a major in two years and not made the cut in one in four.

So yeah, there’s a good chance Oakmont will again crown a first-time major champion on Sunday evening. But these are the golfers who have managed to tame this beast of a golf course the best they possibly could, and fought through slick conditions on Saturday afternoon to earn a late tee time on Sunday.

Who will win? Who will not win? We’re here to discuss.

Which golfer are you most confident will win?

Adam Scott. The 44-year-old simply outnumbers the rest of the leaderboard when it comes to major championship experience. Age is just a number, but in this game, the more years you have, the more opportunities you have to learn, to figure out what works for you when it comes time to hit the shots.

Scott is not only a Masters champion, but he has 20 career top 10s in majors, he’s playing in his 96th consecutive major start and this is his 24th U.S. Open. That’s more U.S. Open appearances than J.J. Spaun, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland and Carlos Ortiz combined. Scott is the only player who has not shot an over-par score at Oakmont yet this week, with scores of 70-70-67. Even when he gets out of position, Scott gives himself a chance. He scrambled like a madman on Saturday, getting up-and-down six times, including from the three greenside bunkers he found. On Friday, he called it “old-man par golf,” and at a venue where birdies are hard to come by and par feels like a relief, that style of play might just win it. — Gabby Herzig

Viktor Hovland. Because Hovland has an extra gear that I trust more than the others when he has it. Does he have it often enough? Absolutely not! But this week, his irons are dialed, and suddenly the golfer most famous for his short game bugaboo is in the top five almost entirely because of his incredible saves around the green. Give me that guy. 

Adam Scott might be playing the best overall golf. He might not have a single round over par at the toughest course in the world. So, sure, he’s my second pick, but we have too much evidence of Scott struggling to close on the biggest stages. Even if the biggest losses were a decade or more ago, we still saw it just a year ago at the Scottish Open.

When Hovland is in it, though? He stole the 2023 BMW from Scottie Scheffler with a Sunday 61. He went absolutely nuclear to win the Tour Championship a week later. He won the Memorial that year, too, and he may have been the best player at the last Ryder Cup. Even this spring, when his swing was still a mess, he won Valspar when he didn’t think he could. 

Plus, seven of the nine Oakmont major winners were first-time major winners. I’ll say that winner is Hovland. — Brody Miller

Adam Scott’s swing in 800 frames per second. pic.twitter.com/Sm0zrgXvDZ

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 13, 2025

Which golfer in the top five will not win?

After witnessing Spaun’s collapse during the Monday morning playoff at the Players Championship, it’s going to be hard to have confidence in the 34-year-old with one career victory on the PGA Tour.

The moment was too big for Spaun then, so is he ready for it now? His play this week has been nothing short of impressive — an opening-round 66 was simply not supposed to happen on this test, and he backed it up with a 72 and a 69. During the first and third rounds, Spaun picked up ground against the field with a hot putter, gaining four shots on the greens on Thursday and 2.84 on Saturday. But when he finishes his pre-round warmup, hears his name announced on the tee, and starts the biggest round of his life on Sunday, can he keep it up? This is the first time Spaun has made the weekend at a U.S. Open, let alone a potential final pairing. He might not know what’s coming. — Herzig

Aside from Ortiz, who is likely just too far back, I’ll say the 54-hole leader, Burns. He deserves immense credit for his Saturday 69, finding a way to get under par despite some of the worst driving you’ll ever see from a U.S. Open leader. So maybe this is unfair. He showed true grit with a fantastic short game and elite iron play. But I cannot get that horrible driving out of my mind as he missed seven of 14 fairways, often by a large distance.

Maybe more than that, I’m thinking of the fact that Burns hasn’t been here. He’s been super clutch in wins over the years at Valspar, Colonial and the WGC Match Play, but he’s never — ever — been in a true Sunday mix at a major. His only top 20s all came through the back door. — Miller

Scottie Scheffler is eight strokes back of the leader. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)

Is there someone down the leaderboard that could make things interesting?

If there’s anyone who can make a dreamlike run on Sunday, it’s the world No. 1 Scheffler. Obviously, at 4-over-par, there are more than a few things that need to fall into place for this to happen. Players need to falter, the conditions need to stay soft, and Scheffler needs to figure out the left miss he’s been fighting this week, as well as a shaky putter. All of that is totally possible.

At this golf course, and with this U.S. Open setup, players are constantly moving up and down the leaderboard. Burns shot a 65 on Friday, so we know a low score is out there. Scheffler has done this sort of thing before — think about the Paris Olympics, when he came from four shots behind and shot a final-round 62 to win gold. Maybe he’s too far back to win, but Scheffler can certainly give these guys a scare on Sunday. — Herzig

Tyrrell Hatton, because, man, he could be so much more in this thing. If it weren’t for that brutal double bogey on 15, Hatton would be just three back after a Saturday 66. And even that hypothetical should have been better. His iron play was unbelievable Saturday, and he was second best in the field tee to green. The strange part? Hatton is one of the better putters in the world, and it was his constant missed birdie opportunities that held him back. Especially considering he putted well Thursday and Friday.

Also, go back to ever-aggravated Hatton’s hilarious comments at last year’s U.S. Open. He’s made for this.

“It sort of brings (other players) to my level because I just lose my head every week. They can kind of experience what it’s like in my head for a week.” — Miller

What’s the winning score, and is there a playoff?

With the way the weather forecast is looking for Sunday, we’re going to continue seeing soft and potentially very scoreable conditions at Oakmont. But the USGA still does have a few tricks up its sleeve. There are nasty pin locations out there — including a back-right location on the par-3 13th that hasn’t been used yet — and those could significantly impact scoring. I’m going to say 5-under gets into a playoff, and 6-under wins it outright. — Herzig

Three-under-par. All five contenders here have played steady, reliable golf all week with one low round in the mix. None of them have gone higher than 72 yet, and Scott and Hovland haven’t shot worse than 71. So it’s quite unlikely all three of Burns, Scott and Spaun go heavily over par.

Hovland beats Scott in a playoff. Pandemonium. — Miller

(Top photo of Sam Burns: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)

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