Let’s start this Statcast overview with the big news of the week — the trade of Rafael Devers from the Red Sox to the Giants.
Last week, we looked at three-year Statcast park factors for homers by batter handedness as a way to assess players who are traded. While the expected homer deficit isn’t that big for Devers in his new home, it still hurts. He goes from a park that observes 90 homers for every 100 hit in a neutral park to one that has 80. This is estimated to cost him about three homers since 2024 — not a big deal.
Advertisement
His overall hitting, however, will be hampered, as will his counting stats in a depressed environment in San Francisco. For example, there is an approximately 18% decline in runs at Oracle Park compared to the league average. Since he will play half his games there, that represents a 9% overall deficit for Devers in expected runs and RBI (this is park-adjusted and doesn’t factor in the new lineup around him).
And to put a fine point on it in a way we all readily understand, he’s going from an overall hitting park that’s rated 105 for lefties (second best — 100 is exactly average) to 96 (second worst). Devers now projects for a .804 OPS at home and .820 overall. Oracle Park is so spacious that it doesn’t have too negative of an impact on batting average, but it’s still about 5% worse for a lefty than Fenway Park. However, since he only plays half his games there, it’s a 2.5% overall decrease. So, if he had played all his home games as a Giant, his expected average would be about .268 (he’s currently at .274).
On to other noteworthy news …
Here are the best expected hitters in June based on xwOBA (.330 is about average):
Freeman is only 3% rostered but is playing nearly every day now and has an .842 OPS. He should definitely be rostered in deep leagues. Remember, these xwOBA stats are not given a boost for home park other than whatever the increase in exit velocity is in Colorado versus elsewhere.
Another Rockies player, Goodman, is now 84% rostered, but I previously recommended him here based on his expected stats when he was widely available on waivers.
While Aranda is widely rostered (70%), he’s still under-rostered. Is he just a strong-side platoon player? The lefty-hitting Aranda has a .404 OBP this year when facing a southpaw.
On the xwOBA downside, we have:
*Just for fun, William Contreras’ brother Willson is at .425 this season.
As for the supposed phenoms:
| Player | Team | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|
|
Roman Anthony |
BOS |
.254 |
|
Jac Caglianone |
KC |
.338 |
Caglianone is likely to be hurt by his home park, though that’s more of a headwind and not something that should significantly impact his overall expected value. I do think Caglianone has been fine so far, considering it’s his first exposure to the big leagues, despite the disappointing actual stats.
Advertisement
Regarding Anthony, I wouldn’t use his xwOBA to this point to fade him, and he should ultimately be helped by his park and surrounding team.
As for the pitchers, the June splits seem meager — about 20-25% of overall stats. But the best pitchers this month are who you’d expect. Let’s only focus on the surprising ones. We’re using xwOBA here, where average is again about .330, and note it’s a proxy for expected ERA (where lower is better). Rostered percentages are from Yahoo.
|
Player
|
Team
|
xwoba
|
Rostered%
|
K%
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TB |
.230 |
85 |
38.9 |
|
|
NYY |
.239 |
73 |
24.3 |
|
|
LAD |
.246 |
52 |
20.6 |
|
|
BAL |
.255 |
16 |
32.5 |
|
|
CHC |
.258 |
80 |
19.4 |
|
|
TB |
.259 |
46 |
22.5 |
|
|
MIL |
.267 |
38 |
21.5 |
|
|
SF |
.268 |
46 |
23.5 |
|
|
NYY |
.274 |
50 |
30.9 |
If any of these pitchers are available in your 12-team mixed league, they’re worth a flyer. Consider this a gentle push, given the small sample size. Fortune favors the bold in this game of ours.
Morton’s K% in the period is an outstanding 32.5%, though he’s still been wildly unlucky, and Baz is better than his June K% shows.
Do I hate backing Morton at his age (nearly 42), given his full-season stats (6.05 ERA and 1.66 WHIP)? Yes. But I have to respect the expected stats when making these calls. In June, his ERA is 2.57 with a still very unlucky 1.64 WHIP given his K% this month.
(Top photo of Rafael Devers: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Iván Jaime ruma à MLS: FC Porto empresta espanhol ao Montréal com opção de compra
Médio deixa Dragão ©IMAGO Já é oficial: Iván Jaime está de saída do FC Porto, depois de ter sido anunciado, nesta sexta-feira, como reforço do Montréal, emblema canadiano que disputa o campeonato norte-americano, a MLS.O jogador espanhol, de 24 anos, ruma ao Canadá por empréstimo dos dragões até 30 de junho de 2026 a troco de 250 mil euros, ficando outros 250 mil euros dependentes do cumprimento de objetivos.O acordo contempla ainda uma opção de compra, que se pode tornar obrigatória se Jaime jogar pelo menos 45 minutos em 60% dos jogos do Montréal, de 5 milhões de euros se for acionada até 31 de janeiro do próximo ano, que passam a ser 5,5 milhões se isso acontecer apenas entre fevereiro e maio de 2026.Jaime, recorde-se, tinha sido contratado pelo FC Porto ao Famalicão no verão de 2023 a troco […]
Milton Neves não banca classificação do Palmeiras contra o River Plate na Libertadores: “Deixa sérias dúvidas”
Milton Neves é jornalista esportivo (Reprodução/YouTube)O Palmeiras confirmou ontem (21) a classificação para as quartas de final da Libertadores ao empatar com o Universitario, do Peru, por 0 a 0, no Allianz Parque – o time de Abel Ferreira havia vencido na ida por 4 a 0. Agora, na próxima fase, o time palestrino terá pela frente o River Plate e o jornalista Milton Neves não aposta suas fichas no clube brasileiro. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEEm texto publicado no UOL Esporte, o comentarista esportivo destacou o péssimo desempenho do Verdão no empate no duelo de volta contra a equipe peruana e indicou que, se esse nível de atuação seguir para as partidas diante do gigante argentino, a classificação para as semifinais estará muito ameaçada.“A vaga nas quartas de final foi confirmada sem sustos, e isso não se discute. Mas o desempenho desta […]
Marcelinho Carioca descarta São Paulo campeão da Libertadores e crava favoritos ao título: “Flamengo e Palmeiras”
Marcelinho Carioca em entrevista para podcast - Reprodução/YouTubeSão Paulo, Palmeiras e Flamengo serão os representantes do Brasil nas quartas de final da Libertadores da América. Segundo o ex-jogador Marcelinho Carioca, o time hoje comandado por Hernán Crespo já mostrou historicamente sua tradição no torneio, mas não acredita que esteja mais preparado a ponto de projetar uma disputa direta pelo título. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADENa avaliação do ‘Pé de Anjo’, o Rubro-Negro, por exemplo, tem à disposição um leque maior de atletas de altíssimo nível e chegará muito forte em busca do tetracampeonato. A mesma análise o ídolo do Corinthians faz a respeito do Verdão, que todo ano se mostra bastante competitivo com Abel Ferreira.“A gente sendo realista, o São Paulo não tem a mesma qualidade do Flamengo, Palmeiras, mas ele sabe jogar a competição. Tem um estigma ali que algumas vezes pode […]
Utkání Bohemians s Mladou Boleslaví bylo odloženo
Fenomén odložených utkání v aktuální ligové sezoně tak pokračuje. Duel mezi Baníkem a Teplicemi z 2. kola se nedohrál kvůli průtrži mračen, Ostrava i Plzeň si pak odkládaly duely kvůli náročnému programu v Evropě. U Baníku šlo o mač s Pardubicemi, který se měl hrát minulý víkend. Viktoria si nechala přesunout utkání 3. kola s Mladou Boleslaví, v úterní dohrávce zvítězila 5:0.Tentokráte je na vině virus, který dosti nevybíravě zaútočil na fotbalisty Bohemians.„Kádr Bohemians se již několik dní potýká s virovým onemocněním, které zasáhlo významnou část týmu. S klubem jsme byli v pravidelném kontaktu a situaci průběžně sledovali. Počet nakažených hráčů se ale k dnešnímu dni nepodařilo bohužel snížit, naopak dále narůstá a v tuto chvíli se s onemocněním potýká 14 hráčů, což klub doložil lékařskými zprávami. V zájmu ochrany zdraví a zachování regulérnosti soutěže jsme se proto rozhodli utkání odložit,“ uvedl výkonný ředitel LFA Tomáš Bárta.Klokani před týdnem zvítězili 2:1 v Karviné, teď si musí dát nucenou pauzu. Vzhledem k nabitému kalendáři nebude vůbec […]
Mbeumo’s running is already changing Man Utd
Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week: 🔴 Mbeumo's running power🔄 O'Riley to replace Joao Pedro? 🔍 A player to watch this weekendMbeumo's instant impactManchester United face Fulham on Super Sunday hoping to build on the positives from their narrow loss to Arsenal. Bryan Mbeumo's performance was one of them. His debut, following a strong pre-season, underlined his potential to transform their attack. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Ruben Amorim gave a cryptic answer on Man Utd goalkeeper Andre Onana It could be seen in his very first actions of the game. Inside the opening minute, Mbeumo controlled a looping clearance in his own half then drove Manchester […]
Nuno says ‘where there’s smoke, there’s fire’ as Marinakis relationship deteriorates
Nuno Espirito Santo says his relationship with Nottingham Forest co-owner Evangelos Marinakis is "not the same" and admits "where there's smoke, there's fire" in response to reports his position at the club is under threat.Nuno, who was handed a new contract in June after guiding Forest into Europe last term, was seemingly accepting that his time at the club could be over after saying his connection with Marinakis has changed. "We know each other very well, and we have all been in the industry for a while now," he said ahead of Sunday's Premier League game at Crystal Palace."And where there's smoke, there's fire, so I know how things work, but I'm here to do my job. I understand, because I'm worried. I'm the first one to be worried. I'm the first one to be concerned."When questioned about the rift […]
Related
Iván Jaime ruma à MLS: FC Porto empresta espanhol ao Montréal com opção de compra
Médio deixa Dragão ©IMAGO Já é oficial: Iván Jaime está de saída do FC Porto, depois de ter sido anunciado, nesta sexta-feira, como reforço do Montréal, emblema canadiano que disputa o campeonato norte-americano, a MLS.O jogador espanhol, de 24 anos, ruma ao Canadá por empréstimo dos dragões até 30 de junho de 2026 a troco de 250 mil euros, ficando outros 250 mil euros dependentes do cumprimento de objetivos.O acordo contempla ainda uma opção de compra, que se pode tornar obrigatória se Jaime jogar pelo menos 45 minutos em 60% dos jogos do Montréal, de 5 milhões de euros se for acionada até 31 de janeiro do próximo ano, que passam a ser 5,5 milhões se isso acontecer apenas entre fevereiro e maio de 2026.Jaime, recorde-se, tinha sido contratado pelo FC Porto ao Famalicão no verão de 2023 a troco […]
Milton Neves não banca classificação do Palmeiras contra o River Plate na Libertadores: “Deixa sérias dúvidas”
Milton Neves é jornalista esportivo (Reprodução/YouTube)O Palmeiras confirmou ontem (21) a classificação para as quartas de final da Libertadores ao empatar com o Universitario, do Peru, por 0 a 0, no Allianz Parque – o time de Abel Ferreira havia vencido na ida por 4 a 0. Agora, na próxima fase, o time palestrino terá pela frente o River Plate e o jornalista Milton Neves não aposta suas fichas no clube brasileiro. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEEm texto publicado no UOL Esporte, o comentarista esportivo destacou o péssimo desempenho do Verdão no empate no duelo de volta contra a equipe peruana e indicou que, se esse nível de atuação seguir para as partidas diante do gigante argentino, a classificação para as semifinais estará muito ameaçada.“A vaga nas quartas de final foi confirmada sem sustos, e isso não se discute. Mas o desempenho desta […]
Marcelinho Carioca descarta São Paulo campeão da Libertadores e crava favoritos ao título: “Flamengo e Palmeiras”
Marcelinho Carioca em entrevista para podcast - Reprodução/YouTubeSão Paulo, Palmeiras e Flamengo serão os representantes do Brasil nas quartas de final da Libertadores da América. Segundo o ex-jogador Marcelinho Carioca, o time hoje comandado por Hernán Crespo já mostrou historicamente sua tradição no torneio, mas não acredita que esteja mais preparado a ponto de projetar uma disputa direta pelo título. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADENa avaliação do ‘Pé de Anjo’, o Rubro-Negro, por exemplo, tem à disposição um leque maior de atletas de altíssimo nível e chegará muito forte em busca do tetracampeonato. A mesma análise o ídolo do Corinthians faz a respeito do Verdão, que todo ano se mostra bastante competitivo com Abel Ferreira.“A gente sendo realista, o São Paulo não tem a mesma qualidade do Flamengo, Palmeiras, mas ele sabe jogar a competição. Tem um estigma ali que algumas vezes pode […]
Utkání Bohemians s Mladou Boleslaví bylo odloženo
Fenomén odložených utkání v aktuální ligové sezoně tak pokračuje. Duel mezi Baníkem a Teplicemi z 2. kola se nedohrál kvůli průtrži mračen, Ostrava i Plzeň si pak odkládaly duely kvůli náročnému programu v Evropě. U Baníku šlo o mač s Pardubicemi, který se měl hrát minulý víkend. Viktoria si nechala přesunout utkání 3. kola s Mladou Boleslaví, v úterní dohrávce zvítězila 5:0.Tentokráte je na vině virus, který dosti nevybíravě zaútočil na fotbalisty Bohemians.„Kádr Bohemians se již několik dní potýká s virovým onemocněním, které zasáhlo významnou část týmu. S klubem jsme byli v pravidelném kontaktu a situaci průběžně sledovali. Počet nakažených hráčů se ale k dnešnímu dni nepodařilo bohužel snížit, naopak dále narůstá a v tuto chvíli se s onemocněním potýká 14 hráčů, což klub doložil lékařskými zprávami. V zájmu ochrany zdraví a zachování regulérnosti soutěže jsme se proto rozhodli utkání odložit,“ uvedl výkonný ředitel LFA Tomáš Bárta.Klokani před týdnem zvítězili 2:1 v Karviné, teď si musí dát nucenou pauzu. Vzhledem k nabitému kalendáři nebude vůbec […]
Mbeumo’s running is already changing Man Utd
Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week: 🔴 Mbeumo's running power🔄 O'Riley to replace Joao Pedro? 🔍 A player to watch this weekendMbeumo's instant impactManchester United face Fulham on Super Sunday hoping to build on the positives from their narrow loss to Arsenal. Bryan Mbeumo's performance was one of them. His debut, following a strong pre-season, underlined his potential to transform their attack. Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player Ruben Amorim gave a cryptic answer on Man Utd goalkeeper Andre Onana It could be seen in his very first actions of the game. Inside the opening minute, Mbeumo controlled a looping clearance in his own half then drove Manchester […]
Nuno says ‘where there’s smoke, there’s fire’ as Marinakis relationship deteriorates
Nuno Espirito Santo says his relationship with Nottingham Forest co-owner Evangelos Marinakis is "not the same" and admits "where there's smoke, there's fire" in response to reports his position at the club is under threat.Nuno, who was handed a new contract in June after guiding Forest into Europe last term, was seemingly accepting that his time at the club could be over after saying his connection with Marinakis has changed. "We know each other very well, and we have all been in the industry for a while now," he said ahead of Sunday's Premier League game at Crystal Palace."And where there's smoke, there's fire, so I know how things work, but I'm here to do my job. I understand, because I'm worried. I'm the first one to be worried. I'm the first one to be concerned."When questioned about the rift […]
Be the first to leave a comment