- Can Josh Allen carry the Bills again in 2025? Allen’s MVP-level play masked significant defensive regression, but expecting a repeat of that historic output may be unrealistic.
- Will New England’s upgrades be enough to help Drake Maye succeed? Improvements across the offensive line and receiving corps should provide a better environment for Maye to grow, even if the situation remains below average overall.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
Now that the draft is behind us and rosters are mostly set, it’s a great time to shift focus to futures markets in search of betting value. In the past, tying up money for months came with an opportunity cost. But with the rise of new platforms, including those offering interest, betting early on futures can be a more worthwhile investment than ever.
We’ll go division by division, highlighting the most valuable bets. While not every team will get a full breakdown, we’ll touch on each as we work through the board.
To set the foundation for our analysis, we’ll look at team fundamentals from last season, using PFF’s own Timo Riske’s chart on team performance as a baseline.
This remains the Bills’ division to lose, with Josh Allen and Buffalo entering 2025 as clear and deserved favorites. The Dolphins struggled last season amid offensive changes and injuries, and with no proven backup quarterback on the roster, they’re once again placing their trust in Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets begin a retooling year after the Aaron Rodgers experiment ended in disappointment. The defense regressed to below league average, and Justin Fields will now lead the offense. Meanwhile, the Patriots were a mess on both sides of the ball in 2024 — rookie quarterback Drake Maye showed flashes of promise, and the team was aggressive in offseason upgrades, but whether that’s enough to return to playoff contention remains to be seen.
Buffalo Bills
Central questions: Can Josh Allen replicate his elite performance from last season, and will that be enough to offset a defense that has shown signs of decline?
Josh Allen put together the best season of his career in 2024, capturing his first MVP while setting personal highs in EPA per play, accuracy rate, sack rate and several other key metrics.
Allen is undeniably one of the league’s elite quarterbacks. Still, it’s worth acknowledging that last season likely represents a high-percentile outcome relative to his overall skill set. That doesn’t mean he can’t replicate or even improve on it, but realistically, the most probable scenario is another excellent season that falls just short of the historic production he delivered a year ago.
Allen was historically effective at overcoming disruption last season, trailing only 2022 Patrick Mahomes in expected points added on such plays since the stat began being tracked in 2019. His production in that area nearly doubled the third-best season on record, an exceptional, but likely unsustainable, level of efficiency over a full year.
He also benefited from strong yards after the catch (YAC) support. Despite posting a target depth in line with his career average, Allen’s receivers averaged 3.5 YAC per reception, well above his career norm of 2.75.
This news was originally published on this post .
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