What big moves could be coming for the Maple Leafs on July 1?

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We’re down to a little more than 48 hours until free agency opens on Tuesday, and the picture is becoming a bit clearer in terms of what the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to have to work with.

Not only is John Tavares now signed on a bargain $4.38 million cap hit, but the Leafs are also attempting to move Mitch Marner’s UFA rights in a sign-and-trade deal with the Vegas Golden Knights that could return centre Nicolas Roy.

Big decisions remain on restricted free agent Matthew Knies’ contract and how exactly GM Brad Treliving is going to spend the Leafs’ considerable remaining cap space.

Let’s dig in first on what the Leafs roster looks like right now and how much financial flexibility they’re going to have with the cap going up to $95.5 million next season.

Here’s everyone they have signed, 17 players in all, with Tavares’ deal in place in the second-line centre slot.

There’s a little bit of a breeze over there on the left wing side, I’d say.

I’ve slotted everyone where they were during the playoffs, rather than shift anyone up the lineup to fill holes. And Ryan Reaves has, again, been waived and demoted, freeing up most of his salary. (Reaves counts $200,000 against the cap when in the AHL.)

So, this is a roster that’s relatively set in goal and on defence (barring a trade), with big holes at forward, and more than $22 million in cap space. But what does it look like if we include Roy — and I should reiterate here that the Marner deal is not done, so this is just theoretical for now — and the two RFAs who are likely to stay, Knies and Pontus Holmberg?

That drops the Leafs to just two remaining roster holes, one on left wing and the other on the right. And drops their cap space down to roughly $11 million, assuming I’m in the ballpark on the Knies and Holmberg deals.

For Knies, I went with the same five-year, $7.7 million a season contract that J.J. Peterka signed with Utah earlier in the week. Your mileage may vary, but I think that’s a fair comparable given their age and goal production. Even though Peterka has been more productive points-wise over the past two seasons, Knies brings a rare physical skillset that sets him apart (and that could make him an offer-sheet target in such a thin market for offensive talent).

The good news, however, is that if Knies does sign an offer sheet, Toronto obviously has the cap space to match.

Holmberg, meanwhile, I simply signed to his qualifying offer number, but his cap hit could end up slightly higher or lower depending on negotiations.

As for Nick Robertson, another Leafs RFA, I left him out of this analysis for now. Theoretically either he or prospect Easton Cowan ($873,500) could fill one of the remaining wing spots, depending on if Robertson is back (of which I’m skeptical) or Cowan shows well enough in training camp to avoid demotion to the Marlies (also somewhat skeptical).

Max Pacioretty, who is a pending UFA, is another option that wouldn’t break the bank. (Negotiations continue on that front.) Steven Lorentz could be, too.

As far as I can gather, the Leafs’ biggest bet on July 1 is apparently going to be an attempt to sign Brad Marchand. That would obviously eat up a huge percentage of their remaining cap space — likely in the $8 million range — with the understanding the 37-year-old would be a big part of their top-six for the next few years.

Other high-end possibilities, like Nikolaj Ehlers, might theoretically have been fallback options for Toronto, but all indications are he is destined for another team at this point.

If Marchand chooses the Leafs over returning to Florida, that doesn’t necessarily rule out Toronto making another significant addition. If the Leafs can trade Calle Järnkrok or David Kämpf in a salary dump deal — which should be possible with how little cash is remaining on their deals after July 1 and all the teams looking for talent right now — that could potentially leave them another $5 million or so to add another forward.

The trouble is there simply aren’t a ton of great top-six options in this UFA class.

That’s even more an issue if Marchand re-signs in Florida — probably the likeliest outcome — or goes elsewhere. The Leafs would then be onto Plan B or C, and to be honest, it’s hard to get a read on what that looks like right now.

Maybe they get more aggressive on the trade front, where there have been a host of interesting players dealt as cap dumps (including Mason Marchment and Charlie Coyle) over the past 10 days. Or perhaps they wait out the expensive frenzy on Tuesday and try to make some bargain buys on July 2 and beyond.

Some of the names still out there on the trade market could be interesting solutions. The Leafs did look hard at Peterka before losing that bidding war to the Mammoth, who sent Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to Buffalo in that swap. Bryan Rust would be a great fit in Toronto’s top six, for example, but Pittsburgh is going to want a massive futures haul that I don’t think the Leafs can pull together.

Could Toronto pursue other players on the block like the Islanders’ Jean-Gabriel Pageau or Seattle’s Jared McCann, even if they aren’t perfect stylistic fits? Would it be worth checking in with Nashville on Steven Stamkos or Jonathan Marchessault to see if there’s a discount to be had there and if they’d be willing to waive their no-movement clauses for the Leafs?

Will more names shake loose once teams begin to spend some of their cap space on other free agents, RFAs and UFAs, beginning on July 1?

As I outlined earlier in the week, having some patience here makes sense, assuming the Marchand bid doesn’t pan out. But $11 million is a lot of empty cap space, too much to have sit all offseason, especially with no guarantee there’ll be two or three quality forwards to use it on.

If the Leafs can land Roy — a decent checking centre who has played 15 to 16 minutes a night in Vegas the past several seasons and can fill a hole down the lineup — that is one piece of good news, especially given a UFA’s signing rights rarely net an asset like that. But even if that pans out, there are still a lot of balls in the air for Toronto right now, and no guarantee they’re going to snag any of the ones they want.

It should be an interesting few days, no matter what.

(Photo of GM Brad Treliving: R.J. Johnston / Toronto Star via Getty Images)

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