The Oklahoma City Thunder are still the clear favorites to win the NBA title again next season, but the start of the offseason has seen a number of top contenders make bold moves to position themselves as a serious threat to the Thunder’s new crown. The betting odds have seen several notable shifts below the Thunder at the top.
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For starters, the Denver Nuggets (+600 on BetMGM) are now second in the odds behind Oklahoma City (+275) after adding a number of supporting pieces to go with Nikola Jokić. The Nuggets took the Thunder to Game 7, and Aaron Gordon was hampered by a hamstring injury in that game. Denver is still only two years removed from a championship and has the best player on the planet. It’s not hard to envision how Denver could be primed for another run if the additions of Cam Johnson, Bruce Brown Jr., Jonas Valančiūnas and Tim Hardaway Jr. prove valuable.
The Houston Rockets remain among the top three (+800) with the Kevin Durant trade fueling much of the optimism. The Rockets are adding Dorian Finney-Smith and Clint Capela to fill out what is looking like a scary roster, but Houston was already among the top contenders before those moves.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (+850) and the New York Knicks (+900) remain at the top of what appears to be a wide-open Eastern Conference. After that, there have been plenty of shifts. Let’s see how things stack up after two days of free agency, with a focus on the teams that have moved the most in the futures odds.
2026 NBA championship odds
Biggest risers
Denver Nuggets
Biggest transactions
- Traded Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 unprotected first-round pick to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson
- Signed Bruce Brown Jr.
- Traded Dario Sarić to Sacramento for Jonas Valančiūnas
- Signed Tim Hardaway Jr.
Odds move (from opening odds to now): +1600 to +700
Denver needed to improve its depth after seeing its supporting cast have a very inconsistent playoffs. The Porter Jr. for Johnson swap opened up some cap space for Denver, swapping an expensive shooter for a cheaper one. The other moves are clear upgrades. Brown was a part of the Nuggets’ title team and returned on a veteran minimum, Valančiūnas could give Jokić more of a breather and Hardaway gives the Nuggets much-needed shooting help on the wings.
John Hollinger on the live blog: “The Dario Sarić for Jonas Valančiūnas trade is an absolutely incredible deal for the Denver Nuggets. They just traded $5 million in dead weight to the Sacramento Kings to get the best backup center of the Nikola Jokić era.”
Atlanta Hawks
Biggest transactions
- Traded Terance Mann, Georges Niang and the 22nd pick as part of a three-team deal for Kristaps Porziņģis
- Agreed to a sign and trade for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
- Signed Luke Kennard
Odds move: +25000 to +2500
Trae Young remains the cornerstone, but the supporting cast looks deeper and much more talented with those three additions. Atlanta’s regular starting five figures to be Young, Porziņģis, Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels, last year’s No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson, who was averaging 18.9 points, 10 rebounds and five assists before missing the second half of last season due to injury. Add Alexander-Walker and Kennard to a bench unit in a depleted Eastern Conference, and it’s easy to see why Atlanta surged up the odds.
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Jared Weiss on Atlanta’s rapid rebuild: “[Porziņģis] may be the best player Young has ever played with when healthy, particularly considering how well they will accentuate each other’s strengths. Porziņģis averaged about 20 points per game in his two seasons with the Boston Celtics, and he wasn’t even the second option. He has a chance to make it back to the All-Star Game playing alongside Young and will be the key to pushing the Hawks toward a return to the conference finals.”
Orlando Magic
Biggest transactions
- Traded Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, four first-round picks and a 2029 first-round pick swap to Memphis for Desmond Bane
- Signed Tyus Jones
Odds move: +1800 to +1200
Orlando has become the trendy pick for new and improved contender. The Magic were the worst 3-point shooting team in the league this past regular season (31.8 percent) and still made the playoffs. Orlando’s response was to add one of the best 3-point shooters in the league in Bane. Signing Jones gives Orlando a point guard who can create and is another strong shooter from beyond the arc. The Magic emphatically addressed their biggest weakness while keeping the main core of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs intact. It may not be a title-contending core, but Orlando is in the right conference to make a playoff run.
Zach Harper from Day 1 free agency grades: “I think basketball diehards everywhere have been dying to get a point guard like Jones to Orlando for a couple of years, and he should fit perfectly with Desmond Bane.”
Biggest fallers
In the Eastern Conference, the favored Knicks and Cavaliers have seen their odds get a bit longer, mostly due to the Magic and Hawks emerging as contenders who did not appear to exist before. Similarly, the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs have seen other teams pass them in the Western Conference despite not making major changes.
The Indiana Pacers lost Myles Turner to Milwaukee, which saw the Pacers’ odds go from +6600 to +8000. However, Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles injury meant the Pacers were already a long shot, at least for 2026, before Turner’s exit.
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None of the teams mentioned above truly qualify as “fallers” in quite the way Boston does.
Boston Celtics
Biggest transactions
- Traded Kristaps Porziņģis to Atlanta as part of a three-team deal for Georges Niang and a second-round pick
- Traded Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons and two second-round picks
Odds move: +1600 to +4000
With Jayson Tatum out with a torn Achilles, the Celtics had already taken a massive hit in futures odds before the opening odds were out. Still, the Porziņģis and Holiday trades showed Boston is not trying to win this year with the remaining core. The Celtics are in cost-cutting mode, at least for a year, before revving back up. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are still a strong duo at the top of the roster, but there’s a lot less to like about Boston right now, especially after Luke Kornet agreed to sign with the Spurs.
Jay King on Boston’s exodus: “Though Brad Stevens has been able to address a salary-cap dilemma, positioning the Celtics under the second apron with a chance to potentially dip under the luxury tax threshold, his desire to do so has already come at a significant cost. The Boston frontcourt now looks like a glaring weakness.”
Implied rankings based on title odds
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City (+275)
2. Denver Nuggets (+600)
3. Houston Rockets (+800)
4. Los Angeles Lakers (+1600)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (+1800)
6. LA Clippers (+2000)
7. Golden State Warriors (+3000)
8. Dallas Mavericks (+4000)
9. San Antonio Spurs (+5000)
10. Memphis Grizzlies (+12500)
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (+850)
2. New York Knicks (+900)
3. Orlando Magic (+1200)
4. Atlanta Hawks (+2500)
5. Philadelphia 76ers (+3300)
6. Boston Celtics (+4000)
T-7. Detroit Pistons (+6600)
T-7. Milwaukee Bucks (+6600)
9. Indiana Pacers (+8000)
10. Toronto Raptors (+25000)
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Nikola Jokić and Isaiah Hartenstein: Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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