Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2025 odds, predictions: Betting expert reveals picks for Fourth of July event

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After a one-year absence, Joey Chestnut is back and looking to regain his crown when he competes in the 2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest on Coney Island in New York City on Friday. Chestnut, who owns a plethora of competitive eating records, won this contest 16 times over a 17-year span from 2007-23 before being banned from last year’s competition because of a sponsorship deal he signed with Impossible Foods, a competitor of Nathan’s.

Chestnut set the record for most hot dogs and buns consumed in the 2021 Nathan’s contest when he ate 76 in 10 minutes. The 41-year-old Kentuckian is also the world record holder after eating 83 hot dogs and buns in a 1-on-1 showdown with Takeru Kobayashi last year.

Now, Chestnut will be attempting to take back the Mustard Belt – and the $10,000 prize – that was captured last year by Patrick Bertoletti, who consumed 58 hot dogs and buns. Other notable male competitors hoping to challenge for the title are Geoffrey Esper, James Webb and Nick Wehry.

This year, more sportsbooks are providing the option to bet on this renowned hot dog-eating competition, including Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM.

On the women’s side, Miki Sudo will be vying for her fourth consecutive title and 11th in 12 years. The 39-year-old New Yorker set the new women’s record in the Nathan’s contest last year, when she devoured 51 hot dogs and buns. Her biggest competition likely will come from Michelle Lesco, who took the crown in Sudo’s absence due to her pregnancy in 2021.

Chestnut is a huge -2000 favorite to win the 2025 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Bertoletti is +1200. SportsLine expert Matt Severance has revealed his analysis, picks and predictions for this year’s competition.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, he quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. 

A sporting staple of the July 4 holiday – if you consider competitive eating a sport, which I do not – is the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest held outside the original Nathan’s location in Coney Island in New York. The women’s contest starts Friday at 11 a.m. ET and the men’s closer to 12:30 p.m. The men’s and women’s champions receive $10,000 apiece.

What’s new this year on the ESPN telecast is “cams” for top competitors Miki Sudo on the women’s side and Joey Chestnut on the men’s. During the event, participants must eat as many Nathan’s Famous hot dogs in buns as they can within a 10-minute period. Water and other beverages are permitted to help wash things down. Condiments are allowed, but I can’t recall a contestant ever using one.

Chestnut’s return is the major story this year, as he’s the biggest star in the sport and a 16-time champion of this event, including consecutively from 2016-23. “Jaws” was banned from the 2024 contest after he signed a deal with Impossible Foods that called for him to endorse the company’s plant-based hot dogs.

Nathan’s understandably viewed that as direct competition to its all-beef product. Chestnut has since agreed to endorse only Nathan’s hot dogs. The Joey Chestnut record of eating 76 hot dogs was set in 2021, when the contest was relocated elsewhere in the New York area due to capacity restrictions and other health and safety protocols following the Covid pandemic.

The odds that the record of 76 is broken this year are at +215, with No set at -275, and I recommend No. With Chestnut sidelined last year, Patrick “Deep Dish” Bertoletti won the competition with a personal-best mark of 58 hot dogs eaten.

There’s really no point betting Chestnut at -2000 to win, so a better solution would be Bertoletti at +155 in the Winner Without Chestnut market. Bertoletti’s over/under is set at 51.5 hot dogs and he is -160 head-to-head against James Webb (+130), who ate 52 last year.

Most books don’t even offer odds on the women’s winner because Sudo is the Joey Chestnut of that gender. Sudo holds the women’s world record of 51 hot dogs eaten last year, when she won the Nathan’s title for the 10th time. 

However, Sudo didn’t top 42 hot dogs while winning the previous two years, so I like Under 45.5 for her on Friday at -105. I’d also recommend Nick Wehry at -165 head-to-head against Sudo (+130), who happens to be his wife.

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