General manager Mike Rizzo and head coach Dave Martinez might have been fired earlier this week, but life goes on for the rest of the Washington Nationals, including emerging superstar outfielder James Wood. The 22-year-old was selected to his first MLB All-Star team this week as well and is slashing .288/.391/.549 with 23 home runs and 67 RBI during a breakout season. So to see Wood listed at +600 in the MLB home run odds from from BetMGM, despite the organizational turmoil, is a sensational value for MLB HR bettors.
Wood is one of our top MLB HR picks for Tuesday, and you can also add some insurance for any MLB home run bets or MLB HR parlays with the latest BetMGM promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 26.1 units on its MLB HR picks this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 8:
James Wood, Nationals (+600)
Wood is coming off a disappointing 1-for-10 series against the Red Sox, but he was 11-for-20 during a six-game hitting streak prior to that and did launch a homer against the Tigers, so he’s not far removed from good vibes at the plate. The peripherals paint a picture of one of the best hitters in baseball, as he ranks 96th percentile among MLB hitters or better in seven major categories from MLB statcast, including average exit velocity (93.7 mph), barrel rate (18.6%), hard-hit contact rate (56.4%) and bat speed (76.1 mph).
“Getting Wood at +600 is a strong value, especially considering the average line is +480. Wood has a .964 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +415 for Wood to hit a home run.” BetMGM has the best price here.
Junior Caminero (+450)
Caminero’s batted-ball profile isn’t as luxurious as Wood’s, but the key to his power profile is a heavily-leveraged swing. As his 78.0 mph average bat speed is 100th percentile among MLB hitters. He’s muscling balls out despite squaring the ball up only 23.1% of the time he makes contact and hitting the launch-angle sweet spot 28.5% of the time (both bottom-third in the league).
“Caminero has hit 16 of his 21 HRs this season against RHPs, and he is facing a righty in Jack Flaherty that has struggled in his last few starts,” Fetner said. “Despite Detroit being 58-34, Flaherty is just 5-9. In the last month, Flaherty has a 10.50 ERA and has allowed five HRs in four starts.” DraftKings has the best price here and new users can also bet $5 and get $150 instantly with this DraftKings promo code.
Corey Seager, Rangers (+420)
He’s hit 30 homers or more in each of his three seasons in Texas, but got off to a sluggish start in 2025 with only seven homers over his first 49 games. However, he’s hit five home runs over his last 10 games, including a homer on Monday against the Angels. FanDuel is offering the best price and you can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to further take advantage of a great matchup on Tuesday.
“Seager has an .866 OPS vs. RHPs compared to just a .682 OPS vs. LHPs, and he is facing a RHP that he has had success against. Seager is 4-5 with a HR in his career vs. Jose Soriano,” Fetner said. “With Seager’s recent power surge and success against Soriano, we like this play at +420, as we would set the line at +355.”
Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Tuesday:
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 40-36-1 roll (+878) on MLB picks.
This news was originally published on this post .
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