After racing in the streets of Chicago last week, the Cup Series will now venture to the roads of the Bay Area this week. The 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 will take place from Sonoma Raceway on Sunday as NASCAR at Sonoma is the third road course race of the season. Christopher Bell already has a road win this year in Austin, as well as a runner-up, yet the 12-time winner on the Cup Series is still a 2025 NASCAR Sonoma longshot at +1800. There are eight other drivers with equal or lower Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, which makes Bell a great value play. Thus, SportsLine’s model wouldn’t hesitate in using the Joe Gibbs Racing driver as part of NASCAR at Sonoma 2025 bets, and there may be other NASCAR sleepers just as appealing for Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Before entering any 2025 Sonoma NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Sonoma predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 25 winners since 2021, including seven winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Best NASCAR at Sonoma longshots (odds subject to change):
- Christopher Bell (+1800)
- William Byron (+1800)
- AJ Allmendinger (+2000)
Christopher Bell (+1800)
Bell has established himself among the elite road course drivers and enters Sonoma on a magical run. He won at COTA in March, and that performance is sandwiched in between a pair of runners-up at Charlotte and Mexico City. Those three straight top-2 finishes are part of a successful 10-race stretch for Bell on these road tracks, as he has seven top 10s over this run. That includes ninth-place finishes in each of his last two trips to Sonoma, and one can’t forget what Bell is doing this season on the Cup Series. No driver has more victories (three), while he ranks second in top 10s (11) as he’s in contention for his first Cup Series championship. You should ride this wave of momentum, and a DraftKings promo code would allow you to get $150 in bonus bets after a $5 initial wager.
William Byron (+1800)
Speaking of success on the Cup Series, Byron is unparalleled as he tops the 2025 NASCAR standings despite just one victory. That points to his overall body of work as he’s led for the most laps in three races, won the pole twice, and had the fastest lap in two starts. Byron also has two road course victories over his last eight road races, and he possesses the backing of the defending race-winning team. Hendrick Motorsports won at Sonoma last year with Kyle Larson behind the wheel, and Hendrick’s eight all-time wins at Sonoma Raceway are the most of any NASCAR team.
AJ Allmendinger (+2000)
After being relegated to the Xfinity Series last year, Allmendinger is having a resurgent season which has him on pace for his best NASCAR finish in a decade. He’s moved into the top 15 of the Cup Series standings following a sixth place in Chicago last week, which was his second-best finish of the season. The veteran has top 20s in six of his last seven starts, and the high marks of his career have come on road circuits. All three of Allmendinger’s Cup Series victories have been on road tracks, and he’s been knocking at the door of getting a first victory at Sonoma. Allmendinger has back-to-back sixth-place finishes at Sonoma Raceway, making him a steal as a +2000 NASCAR sleeper and can be wagered on with a FanDuel promo code:
More top NASCAR at Sonoma expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 NASCAR Sonoma leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 25 winners, including Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray, Larson’s win at Miami, Bell’s All-Star victory, Hamlin’s Michigan win, van Gisbergen’s Mexico triumph, Elliott in Atlanta, and van Gisbergen again in Chicago.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Sonoma picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 70-1, all from an expert who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners.
2025 NASCAR Sonoma odds, drivers, lineup
(odds are subject to change)
Shane van Gisbergen +125
Kyle Larson +600
Michael McDowell +1100
Tyler Reddick +1200
Ty Gibbs +1300
Chase Elliott +1300
Chris Buescher +1300
Christopher Bell +1800
William Byron +1800
AJ Allmendinger +2000
Kyle Busch +2500
Ross Chastain +2500
Ryan Blaney +3500
Alex Bowman +4000
Chase Briscoe +4000
Denny Hamlin +6000
Carson Hocevar +6000
Joey Logano +6000
Daniel Suarez +6000
Ryan Preece +6000
Austin Cindric +8000
Brad Keselowski +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Zane Smith +25000
Bubba Wallace +25000
Justin Haley +35000
Todd Gilliland +35000
Erik Jones +35000
Noah Gragson +50000
Austin Dillon +50000
Cole Custer +50000
Josh Berry +75000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +75000
Riley Herbst +100000
Cody Ware +200000
Katherine Legge +200000
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