Spaun-ing longshots? Public eyeing The Open dark horses

The public is divided when it comes to speculating who can upend the top two players in the world at The Open Championship this week.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy, winners of the PGA Championship and Masters, respectively, are the clear pre-tournament favorites at all sportsbooks. They are widely followed by LIV Golf members Jon Rahm and Bryon DeChambeau, who are garnering plenty of betting interest as well.

But who is the next J.J. Spaun, the surprise U.S. Open champion who paid off handsomely for the small percentage of the public who took a flier on the previously little-known American?

Scheffler is the +450 favorite at DraftKings, where he leads the field with 11 percent of the total bets backing him to claim the third leg of the career grand slam this week. McIlroy, at +750, leads by a small margin with 11 percent of the total money backing him to Scheffler’s 10 percent.

Next is Rahm at 8 percent followed by Viktor Hovland (+3000), who has graced the final stages at several majors but has yet to claim one. He has been backed by 6 percent of the money, just ahead of Tommy Fleetwood (+2800), also at 6 percent. Fleetwood also has yet to win a major title, and just two starts ago came agonizingly short of claiming his first win on United States soil at the Travelers Championship.

This has not yet been the breakout season many predicted for young Swede Ludvig Aberg, but that can change quickly with a win at Royal Portrush this week. Aberg is ranked ninth in the world coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open.

He is +3000 at DraftKings despite missing the cut at the past two majors. Aberg also missed the cut at The Players, although he did finish seventh at the Masters. Sixth at DraftKings, Aberg is being backed by 4 percent of both the total money and bets placed on this week’s winner.

Aberg is also the third biggest liability for BetMGM, behind only Scheffler and McIlroy. He has been backed by 6.5 percent of the money, with Scheffler leading the way at 15.7 percent followed by McIlroy at 12.1 percent.

All are among the top 10 pre-tournament favorites at both books. So, who has the best potential to produced a Spaun-like performance?

Matt Fitzpatrick is a former U.S. Open champion himself, but has spent the better part of the past two years struggling with his form. Fitzgerald has found some reason to hope of late as he enters this week on the heels of a T8 and T4 in his past two starts, but still provides longshot odds of +5500 at DraftKings.

Another interesting name is Marco Penge, the Englishman who rose 78 spots to No. 92 in the world with last week’s T2 in Scotland. Since opening at +20000 at BetMGM, Penge saw his odds cut in half to +12500 despite garnering only 0.3 percent of the total money.

The man few seem to be talking about is defending champion Xander Schauffele. He has waded through a winless season to date and has been backed by only 3.2 percent of the money at BetMGM. That’s still more than at DraftKings, where Schauffele has been supported by only 3 percent of both the total bets and money at +2500.

“If I can get myself in the mix is when I think I would have an advantage,” Schauffele said Tuesday. “That’s where my biggest edge would be. I can lean on experience at other points in time, but I think the most fun and the biggest advantage I would have is coming down the stretch if I can get close to that lead.”

–Field Level Media