Fantasy Football: 3 quarterbacks who could finish No. 1 overall

Fantasy Sports

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• Jalen Hurts has always been a top-six fantasy quarterback: He’s ranked in the top six in fantasy points per start in every year of his career, and everyone is expecting him to finish in that range again this season.
• Justin Fields is back to being an NFL starter: The New York Jets signed Fields in free agency to be their starter, and every time Fields has been an NFL starter, he’s also been a fantasy football starter.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 12 minutes

Three quarterbacks consistently have a top-30 ADP, including Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who both have multiple seasons as the top overall quarterback, and Jayden Daniels, who had one of the best rookie quarterback fantasy seasons in league history. It’s a fair debate who will be selected first this season, but all three have a legitimate case to score the most points this season.

This article is for the less-obvious players who have the talent and are in a good enough situation to become the new top overall quarterback if everything goes right. Two of the three will be making their first starts with their respective teams, while the other has a new offensive coordinator. All three are values relative to where they are currently being selected.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Tuesday, July 29

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 3.10)

Jalen Hurts became the Eagles’ starting quarterback during the last four weeks of his rookie season, where he averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game, ranking ninth-best among quarterbacks. He’s been a mainstay near the top of the quarterback rankings, finishing sixth, first, second and sixth in fantasy points per game over the last four seasons.

A big part of his fantasy success has been running the ball. He’s run at least 140 times in each of the last four seasons. The only other quarterbacks at 140 rushing attempts or more in a season during that time areJustin Fields in 2022,Lamar Jackson in 2023 andJayden Daniels in 2024. A decent portion of those runs were tush pushes, as he’s run at least 30 quarterback sneaks in each of the last three seasons, while no other quarterback has 30 or more in a season in that time.Josh Allen is the only quarterback above 20. Hurts has gained at least 600 rushing yards each season, making up four of the 14 quarterback seasons with at least 600 yards in the last four years. Most importantly, his rushing has led to touchdowns. He’s scored double-digit touchdowns in all four seasons, while Allen is the only other quarterback to achieve double-digit touchdowns in that time.

While we’ve seen a few quarterbacks emerge in the past decade who can also run the ball well, Hurts is one of the few quarterbacks who can mix that high-volume rushing with quality passes. Hurts passing grade over the last four seasons ranks 13th-best among quarterbacks. It’s notably lower than Allen and Jackson but in the same ballpark as Daniels.

His 22.6 fantasy points per start since 2020 ranks second-best for all quarterbacks behindJosh Allen. For multiple reasons, his fantasy points per start reached a new low this season. TheSaquon Barkley addition, mixed with the defense playing well, made the Eagles more run-heavy during games, particularly near the end of games, which resulted in Hurts taking significantly fewer dropbacks per game. He also wasn’t as effective as a passer in the pass, finishing with more turnover-worthy throws and fewer big-time throws. Barkley ran for multiple long touchdowns, which cut into Hurts’ opportunities to throw touchdowns. Hurts helped offset this with more long runs compared to the previous season.

We can expect some positive regression for Hurts next season. We would expect his passing grade to be closer to previous seasons. While the Eagles should remain one of the best teams in the league, their schedule is among the toughest in the league, so game scripts may not be as favorable for the Eagles as they were last season, leading to more passing. Barkley is unlikely to have as many long runs resulting in touchdowns, which could lead to more drives ending in passing touchdowns. However, Barkley is still on the roster, which will continue cutting into Hurts’ early-game passing.

Hurts’ utilization was interesting last season in that he took more sacks and scrambled more than in previous seasons, while his percentage of the team’s designed runs decreased. Generally, we see quarterbacks run less as their careers progress. His designed runs being down weren’t surprising with the Barkley addition, but both sacks and scrambles increasing are unusual. We could see that change next season, ultimately leading to more passing but also potentially a career-low in rushing yards.

A large part of Hurts’ fantasy value is the Eagles’ commitment to using him at the one-yard line. Hurts had 13, 15 and 14 rushing touchdowns from the last three seasons, respectively, which all rank among the top five for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season all time. Two-thirds of those touchdowns have come from the one-yard line, where the Eagles consistently give Hurts the football. The league’s push to ban the tush push failed, resulting in Hurts retaining this value for at least one more season.

The Eagles had a Super Bowl-winning offense last season and, for the most part, were able to keep the team together. The biggest change is at right guard, where the team lost Mekhi Becton in free agency, followed by the loss of backup running back Kenneth Gainwell. These are relatively minor compared to the other star power that has stayed on the Eagles roster. While Hurts deserves plenty of credit for his success, his fantasy value has been heightened by his receiving room and offensive line, which will continue to be the case.

Hurts has been among the top fantasy quarterbacks throughout his NFL career, and that will continue to be true.Saquon Barkley will continue to lower his ceiling, preventing Hurts from a truly elite fantasy season, but there’s reason to believe he could bounce back from last season.

Justin Fields, New York Jets (ADP: 10.06)

Justin Fields spent three seasons as the Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback after being drafted in the first round in 2021. While his rookie season was largely forgettable, he broke out as a fantasy star in 2022, averaging 20.7 PPR points per game, the fifth-highest among quarterbacks that year. Fields led all quarterbacks with 1,143 rushing yards, nearly 350 more than the next closest player. That season included two historic rushing performances of 147 and 178 yards in November, both ranking in the top 10 for single-game rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history.

In 2023, Fields continued to flash his rushing upside, averaging 21.2 points per game over the first five weeks and 19.8 from Weeks 11-17, excluding a midseason injury absence. Throughout his career, his fantasy production has been fueled primarily by his legs. Among quarterbacks with at least 2,500 snaps over the past four seasons, Fields ranks third in rushing grade (behind onlyJosh Allen andLamar Jackson) and first in scramble yards per game (31.3) and scramble touchdowns per game (0.26). His passing, however, remains a work in progress. His 62.4 passing grade over that span ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks, with Mac Jones and Daniel Jones as the next closest.

After the Bears traded Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers following their selection ofCaleb Williams at No. 1 overall, Fields began 2025 as Pittsburgh’s starter while Russell Wilson recovered from injury. In that stretch, he averaged 19.1 PPR points per game, seventh-best among quarterbacks over that span, before returning to a reserve role when Wilson returned. Encouragingly, Fields’ passing grades over his last two seasons have improved significantly from his early career, helping keep him in the conversation as a potential NFL starter.

Justin Fields joins the New York Jets with a fresh start under new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. After signing a two-year, $40 million deal last season, Fields is positioned to get an extended opportunity as the team’s starting quarterback.

He will bring a clear rushing element to the Jets’ offense, but how heavily the Jets lean into designed runs remains a key variable. That usage could be the difference between Fields finishing as a top-five fantasy quarterback or landing outside the top 12.

One intriguing wrinkle is the Jets’ vote to keep the “tush push.” Fields has only four career carries from the 1-yard line, converting two for touchdowns, but if New York fully commits to using him in short-yardage situations, his rushing touchdown total could spike. That extra goal-line work could be a key factor in Fields cracking the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks in 2025.

Fields has been a fantasy starter whenever he’s held the job and stayed healthy, and that should remain true in 2025 if he gets enough rushing volume.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 13.08)

J.J. McCarthy spent three years as a quarterback at Michigan, initially as a backup to Cade McNamara, but then he beat out McNamara for the starting job in 2022. He was never a high-volume quarterback due to Michigan’s run-first offense and constantly playing with a lead, but he was great on a per-play basis. He was in the 90th percentile or better in each situation. He improved significantly from his first year as a starter to his second. His dropbacks per game decreased, but his stats still increased thanks to a much higher accuracy rate.

McCarthy similarly never ran the ball too often himself, but he had a very high rate of gaining at least 15 yards or a first down. His speed and athleticism are both above average for an NFL quarterback.

His success at Michigan led the Minnesota Vikings to select McCarthy with the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye andMichael Penix Jr. but just before Bo Nix. The Vikings had moved on from Kirk Cousins at quarterback and signedSam Darnold, who was initially the starter, but the general assumption was that McCarthy would take over either before Week 1 or not long after. However, McCarthy tore his meniscus. He had surgery to repair it and missed his entire rookie year.

While Darnold played well for the Vikings, Minnesota opted not to re-sign him and stick with McCarthy as its starter for the 2025 season. From all reports, McCarthy is looking healthy and should be fully ready to go for the season.

McCarthy joins the Minnesota Vikings offense led by Kevin O’Connell. His offenses have been great for quarterbacks. The Vikings typically run an average-to-high number of plays and are consistently passing the ball at a high rate.Sam Darnold was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season, Kirk Cousins was in 2022, and in 2023, he was top 10 in points per game. In 2023, after Cousins’ injury, Dobbs was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of four games he played 100% of his team’s offensive snaps, while Nick Mullens was a top-14 fantasy quarterback when he played 100% of the snaps. Both Dobbs and Mullens had weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback.

McCarthy will be surrounded by a strong receiving group in Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at wide receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end and Aaron Jones Sr. at running back. The Jefferson and Hockenson duo has been around for multiple seasons and is part of the reason the Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks always perform better in fantasy than they do in real-life quarterback rankings. Even if McCarthy struggles like most quarterbacks do in their first year, the supporting cast and coaching staff should be enough to make McCarthy a top-24 fantasy quarterback. There is a chance McCarthy plays better than past Vikings quarterbacks, in which he could be a top-eight option.

The Vikings had an average offensive line in pass protection last season, but there is reason to believe they will be much better this season. Brian O’Neill is the only returning full-time starter, and he was one of the best pass-protecting right tackles last season. Christian Darrisaw had emerged as one of the best young left tackles in the league but missed half the year due to injury. The interior of the line wasn’t great, leading the Vikings to add Donovan Jackson in the first round of the draft in addition to free agents Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from the Indianapolis Colts. All of them should be at least minor upgrades over the 2024 starters. 

Every quarterback who is in their first year as a starter with minimal rushing upside is a risk for fantasy football, but the coaching staff and surrounding cast in Minnesota put J.J. McCarthy in a better position to succeed than nearly all other first-year starting quarterbacks of recent seasons. McCarthy should already be considered a starter in superflex leagues and is a great high-upside option as a backup in single-quarterback leagues.

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