Fantasy Football: Darkhorse candidates to finish as RB1 in 2025

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• De’Von Achane checks all the boxes for RB1 potential: If Miami’s offense can bounce back and allow Achane to thrive once again on his ideal workload, he is the best bet outside the top-five RB ADP to take the RB1 crown.
• D’Andre Swift is a long shot, but the best shot going outside the top 20 running backs: Swift’s situation in Chicago has dramatically improved and the team is giving him the opportunity to improve along with them in 2025 as an RB1 candidate.
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Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

Oftentimes, the annual RB1 for fantasy purposes is already being drafted inside the top-10 players at his position, and for the most part, inside the top five. Over the past 10 seasons, the overall PPR RB1 has been drafted among the top six at his position 70% of the time, with only a few truly deep outliers making it too far beyond that range, including the biggest outlier, 2015’s DeVonta Freeman, who was drafted as RB40 that year.

Considering these odds, we won’t venture too far from the top six into that RB40 range, instead focusing on running backs going outside the top five at their positional ADP. To find these darkhorse candidates, we’ll study the recipe for success from years past to highlight three candidates who have a real shot at finishing 2025 as the PPR RB1.

Before we get into this year’s darkhorse candidates for RB1, we need to understand what allows a player to top their positional scoring, so starting by looking at the past seven years’ worth of RB1s and their points per game totals is a good place to start.

• The first thing that stands out is that each posted over 20 PPR points per game, which is a significant mark to push for each week, creating elite consistency and the highest of fantasy floors. 
• Each of these past RB1s missed no more than one game during the fantasy season, so staying healthy plays a significant part in their ability to top the leaderboard by year’s end.
• It’s also worth noting that four of these seven players were 25 years old or younger, which has been the case each year for the past 11 seasons, with Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler all being above that age in each of the past three seasons, respectively, making it clearly less of a prerequisite for the ultimate fantasy success.

Next, looking at what each back did as a runner should give us an idea of the type of workload to target and what to expect from a touchdown standpoint.

• 900 rushing yards were the floor for each of the past RB1s, and while Saquon Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards are the highest ceiling, having that level of production to reach that RB1 goal isn’t necessary, though it certainly doesn’t hurt. 
• What is important is converting touches into at least double-digit touchdowns on the ground, converting those high-value opportunities into six fantasy points a piece.
• Interestingly, the RB1 also doesn’t have to come from a run-heavy offense, as evidenced by three of them coming from teams that ranked 25th or lower in overall team run rate. As long as they are the team’s primary runner with little competition, that matters much more.

For PPR purposes, what each player adds as a receiver is important unless they can run for over 1,800 yards like Taylor. 

• 2021 and 2024’s RB1s were not as heavily involved in the passing game, but they made up significant ground in that regard with their rushing ability and overall usage, posting the two highest rushing totals and the lowest of the receiving totals among past RB1s.
• Combining opportunities for receiving touches with the double-digit carries per game will still be crucial, considering Barkley and Taylor’s rushing totals are still a rarity. 
• It also won’t hurt to convert some of those targets into touchdowns, especially for Ekeler and Kamara, who were the only ones to post fewer than 1,000 rushing yards, but they made up for it by scoring five receiving touchdowns.

The one other important piece to look at is the team around these players and how effective their offense can be. 

• Each NFL offense that produced the overall RB1 finished inside the top five in the league in either total plays in the red zone or total plays inside the five-yard line. Getting opportunities inside those high-scoring areas of the field is crucial.
• As for overall scoring, being at least above average in that regard should be considered the minimum goal to accomplish.

With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at this year’s darkhorse candidates going outside the top 10 in ADP who have a shot to be the 2025 PPR RB1.

Best shot: De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

• Sleeper ADP: RB7
• Underdog ADP: RB6
• ESPN ADP: RB6
• Consensus ADP: RB6

Coming off his rookie season, 2024 was naturally going to result in some regression after leading the league with 7.9 yards per carry, 5.12 yards after contact per attempt and a 93.5 rushing grade in 2023. However, the dip in efficiency was helped significantly by a larger workload as Achane went from 12.8 opportunities (carries plus targets) per game as a rookie to 17.3 in Year 2. This allowed him to absolve some of that drop in efficiency as he still finished as the PPR RB6 on the year, and heading into 2025, that is exactly where he’s being drafted, setting expectations high and putting him on the best path to overall RB1 among the players on this list today.

Achane is going to continue operating as Miami’s lead back this season, and the hope is that the offense improves even closer to average in 2025 compared to what it was in 2024, when the team ranked bottom 10 in major offensive categories (yards per play, EPA per play, offensive points scored). Miami’s success in 2023 allowed it to finish top-five in these major offensive categories, and while we don’t have to expect that level of success, just a marginal improvement from Miami and Achane – as both have proved capable – will be significant in an even better fantasy year for Achane in 2025. 

Where Achane offers arguably more upside than any other player at his position is as a receiver, as he’s coming off a season where he led the position in receiver alignment snaps (178) and by far the most in the slot (120) while still leading the position in wide receiver snaps (58) as well. With the Jonnu Smith trade, Achane’s potential to even improve on his receiving usage in 2025 only increases to the point where he is a great bet to lead all running backs in targets this season after finishing just behind Alvin Kamara last year. Achane still led the position in receiving yards (592) and tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (six), with the potential to widen the gap in that regard this season.

Any concerns for Achane stem from added competition out of the backfield where 2024 fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright should finally factor in after missing all of his rookie season, but more importantly, added big bodies in the form of Alexander Mattison and rookie Ollie Gordon have the potential to steal some goal-line touches. While Achane took 23 carries in goal-to-go situations (fifth), he did not perform well in that regard, ranking 43rd among 60 qualifying backs in rushing grade (56.4) and the fifth-worst stuffed run rate (52.2%) which, if that were to continue, the team may look to share that load more to find a more effective option. However, Miami’s offense improving overall can still lead to more scoring opportunities this season and help make up for those inefficiencies, which still puts Achane in a great position to hit big in 2025.

Medium shot: Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

• Sleeper ADP: RB17
• Underdog ADP: RB14
• ESPN ADP: RB16
• Consensus ADP: RB16

It’s not always easy for rookies to hit the ground running in the NFL, so having Hampton as a potential RB1 candidate can technically be considered a long shot, his opportunity with the Chargers in Year 1 is a big one, which matters more than anything else. It helps in a big way that Hampton is not just any running back, but a highly drafted one, earning first-round draft capital, accompanied by an impressive college profile to back his NFL potential.

Hampton comes out of North Carolina with a 93.4 career rushing grade while averaging an excellent 4.01 yards after contact per attempt, landing him among the top 95th percentile of running back prospects since 2017, according to our running back prospect model. This makes Hampton a perfect option to dominate carries in Greg Roman’s offense, even with Najee Harris on the roster. Harris signed a smaller one-year deal with the team prior to the NFL draft and is also currently injured, opening up even more reps for Hampton during training camp. Roman has ranked top 10 or higher in team run rate every year but one (2021) since 2019. Even for a banged-up J.K. Dobbins last season, who had never finished higher than RB28 in any previous season, he finished as the PPR RB24, averaging 15.1 points per game (RB17) while missing four games. Hampton being healthy for his entire rookie year, and even more emphasis on the run – as the team has expressed interest in doing after ranking just 10th in run rate last year – should allow for an even bigger fantasy output for the Chargers RB1.

While Hampton doesn’t come out of college with an outstanding receiving profile, he wasn’t a liability in that regard either, which will help his case to play a larger role on passing downs over others who also don’t have strong receiving profiles in the Chargers backfield. The receiving back role hasn’t typically been a large one in Roman’s offense, as no back has exceeded even 40 targets in a season for him since 2019, but every little bit counts in helping build up Hampton’s overall workload. We don’t know exactly what Hampton will look like in the NFL, but most signs point to a running back and workload capable of resulting in at least finishing inside the top-12 at his position, and top-five is in his range of outcomes.

Long shot: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears

• Sleeper ADP: RB27
• Underdog ADP: RB24
• ESPN ADP: RB22
• Consensus ADP: RB24

The long shot option always feels unlikely, but in each of the past two seasons, our long shot has finished as RB11 (2024 James Conner) and RB7 (2023 Joe Mixon), despite both typically being drafted outside the top 15 at their position. In Conner’s case last year, he was drafted outside the top 20. Swift is also going in a similar range as Conner last season, and much like with Conner, there is an encouraging potential workload to help push him toward that top-12 range. The difference between the two right now is that Conner was coming off career-high marks as a runner the previous year, while Swift is not and needs to improve in 2025.

Swift was Chicago’s lead back in 2024 and averaged a career low 3.8 yards per carry across 17 games and finished as the PPR RB20 during the fantasy season, so understandably, there might not be a lot of faith in Swift to be much better in 2025, which is why he’s being taken later than that this offseason. However, everything around Swift has greatly improved, including the offensive line, the team’s receiving weapons, and potentially at head coach with Ben Johnson coming in to run the offense. If Swift is even able to deliver at his career norm of 4.4 yards per carry and a 76.5 rushing grade, there is a very clear path for him to not just improve on his RB20 finish from last season, but as the rising tide lifts all ships, get into that RB1 range for the first time in his career.

It’s important to remember that Chicago’s offense was built to sustain a fantasy RB1 this offseason, and while we all thought that player would come via the draft, Ben Johnson and company felt good enough about Swift that they didn’t address the position in free agency or through the first six rounds of the NFL draft. Even if the overall RB1 isn’t realistic, Swift is in as good a position as any running back being drafted outside the top-20 to deliver an RB1 season, and he should not be overlooked in fantasy drafts this preseason.

This news was originally published on this post .

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