Fantasy Football: 3 early-round running backs to avoid

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• Saquon Barkley broke long touchdown runs at a historic rate: By any definition of “long touchdown run”, Barkley did so at one of the best rates, if not the best rate, in NFL history. This is something that will likely regress this season.
• Will the 31-year-old rest?: Derrick Henry will be 31 years old by the start of the season with over 2,000 career carries. The Baltimore Ravens may rest him more frequently whileKeaton Mitchell is healthy.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

In an ideal world, every player will put up the same stats as their best season, if not better, in 2025. Unfortunately, there are several reasons why a player might not reach those same heights. Specifically for running backs, there is consistently new competition for touches. Two of the three mentioned in this article built their fantasy value off big plays last season, which will likely regress this year. The running backs in this article are being selected in the first two rounds, which is too high compared to other alternatives at the same draft spot.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Wednesday, July 30

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 1.02)

Barkley landed with the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency in 2024. The good news was that his offensive line was a lot better. The bad news was that Jalen Hurts would take the touchdowns from the one-yard line, and there wasn’t as much potential for receiving production.

That all ended up being true. The Eagles had the fourth-highest team rushing grade. When the Eagles were on the one-yard line, Hurts earned 15 carries for 11 touchdowns while Barkley had three carries for no scores. He ran fewer routes and earned a much lower target rate. He was among the league leaders in carries per game, and volume is king in fantasy football, but his per-play metrics suggest a good, but not great, running back.

This should have all added up to a low RB1 performance, but Barkley scored 60-plus-yard touchdown runs at a rate that has never been seen in the history of the NFL. Barkley accomplished this seven times, including the playoffs, which is the most in NFL history in a season. There is a tie for second between Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Jim Brown in 1963, four each. Barkley has 11 60-plus-yard touchdown runs in his NFL career, which ranks second behind Adrian Peterson’s 15 and ahead of Derrick Henry (nine), Barry Sanders (eight) and Chris Johnson (eight). He had four such runs earlier in his career, so his 11 all-time ranks second to Peterson’s 15.

Barkley similarly led the league in touchdowns of 15 or more yards in the regular season (eight). If you removed all of the 15-plus-yard touchdown runs from not just Barkley but all running backs, he would have finished seventh in fantasy points per game instead of first. Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially. He is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back, but it’s implausible he can continue at the same rate.

Barkley’s primary competition for touches, from a fantasy perspective, is Jalen Hurts. When the Eagles needed one yard for a first down or score, they ran 43 times with their quarterbacks and 21 times with their running backs. This is almost entirely due to the tush push’s success. The vote to ban the tush push this offseason was unsuccessful, so the Eagles are likely to continue using this play at the one-yard line. Barkley’s touchdown total should regress on the long touchdowns, without the short touchdown total increasing.

A large part of Barkley’s success has been the offensive line, which ranked fourth in team run-blocking grade last season. The tackles are largely to thank, as Jordan Mailata had one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF’s history last year at left tackle. Lane Johnson has played for over a decade and just posted his highest overall grade at 34 years old. Left guard Landon Dickerson made substantial progress in his fourth season, while Cam Jurgens wasn’t Jason Kelce but still graded fine in run blocking in his first season at center.

The big question is at right guard, where Mekhi Becton left in free agency. Tyler Steen is the favorite to take over at right guard, but there should be competition from Kenyon Green or Matt Pryor. Whoever wins the right guard job probably won’t play as well as Becton, and there could be some regression from the tackles, but this should remain among the best lines in the league.

Barkley is a talented running back who dominated fantasy leagues last season with an unsustainably high rate of long touchdown runs. He will continue to be a great back who sees elite volume, which alone makes him a top-10 running back, but it will be hard to remain elite due to likely touchdown regression.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 1.09)

Henry had an eight-year career with the Tennessee Titans, including four years leading the league in rushing attempts, six-straight seasons with double-digit touchdowns and the 2,027-yard season in 2020. His career seemed to be on the downswing in the last two years at Tennessee, but the offensive line he was running behind also wasn’t nearly as good.

Henry signed as a free agent with the Baltimore Ravens, and he looked better than ever as a runner. The threat ofLamar Jackson also being able to run out of the backfield was a matchup nightmare for defenses, allowing both Jackson and Henry to thrive. Over the last five years, he led all running backs per game in rushing yards (102.5), yards after contact (74.9), rushing touchdowns (0.92), avoided tackles (4.4) and fantasy points from rushing (15.6).

His fantasy production has always been hurt by his lack of receiving relative to other running backs. He’s averaged 1.3 receptions per game throughout his career, and 1.1 last year with the Ravens. He’s arguably been the best running back in PFF’s history, but his only season as the top fantasy running back in points per game in PPR leagues was a season in which he only played eight games. His fantasy production has always been better in standard leagues. In his 2,000-yard season, he finished third in fantasy points per game in both PPR and standard.

Henry’s per-play stats and per-game stats as a rusher were so strong that we shouldn’t expect anything better from him in 2025. He averaged 5.9 yards per attempt and nearly one touchdown per game.

Henry has never played significant snaps in passing situations, but that has been especially true the last two seasons. In his final season with the Titans, he formed a two-man backfield withTyjae Spears, and he split time with Justice Hill last season. Henry ranks 32nd all-time in career rushing attempts, which is why it is understandable that his snaps are now limited.

The Ravens didn’t make any changes to the backfield, outside of undrafted rookies. However, there is a chanceKeaton Mitchell could cut into Henry’s playing time. The 2023 undrafted rookie out of East Carolina had six games with a carry and averaged at least six yards per carry in five of those six games. He ended the season with 8.4 yards per carry and the second-highest rushing grade of the season. His season came to an early end with a fully torn ACL in mid-December, which cost him the first half of 2024. He played a little bit in the second half of 2024, including as a kick returner, but even though he was recovered enough to play football, he wasn’t back to the special player he was as a rookie.

Coach John Harbaugh said he expects Mitchell to be on “a whole other level coming back in the spring and then again into training camp, because he is going to be a year and a half out of that deal. So, this will be his second year. Most knee injuries, it’s your second year, this one, I think that’s especially true about it.” Given that Henry is 31 years old and will be 32 before the Super Bowl and that the Ravens will need Henry more in the playoffs than they will in the regular season, it will make a lot of sense for Mitchell to play, notably when the Ravens are winning games.

Henry was a top-five fantasy running back last season, but there is more reason to expect a decline this season. It’s still fair to consider him a top-10 fantasy running back option for fantasy drafts, but I’d hesitate before drafting him in the first round, even in standard leagues.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 2.07)

Jonathan Taylor was the 41st overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft. While he was the third running back off the board, many dynasty managers made the right decision in picking him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. The Colts eased him into action as a rookie with a 50% snap rate. In 2021, he was the clear best running back in the league. He led the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns. He earned the most fantasy points and points per game regardless of league format, an Associated Press first-team All-Pro and was PFF’s highest graded running back. No other running back has ever accomplished all of that in the same season.

Taylor hasn’t been nearly as effective over the last three seasons. Taylor’s 73.7 rushing grade during the previous three years is tied for 43rd-best among the 49 running backs with 300 or more carries. The running backs tied with him or lower include Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams and Dalvin Cook, who are unsigned free agents, and Zack Moss, Rachaad White and Javonte Williams. The other three running backs below a 76.0 rushing grade are also expected to be backups this year.

Part of Taylor’s problem has been injury, where he’s missed at least three games in the last three years. He’s been listed with an ankle injury on the injury report in November 2020, October 2022, November 2022, October 2023 and October 2024. Throughout his career, he’s also been listed with thumb, ankle, toe, rib, knee and shoulder injuries.

Taylor’s role was larger last season than in other recent seasons, but the Colts brought in new backups for this season. They spent a fifth-round pick on D.J. Giddens and veteran free agent Khalil Herbert. All three running backs are best suited for early-down work rather than on third downs. While Taylor’s work in short-yardage situations and at the goal line should be safe, there is a solid chance that one of these running backs can cut into Taylor’s playing time on early downs. 

An 88.7% snap rate is exceptionally high for a modern-day running back with an extensive injury history. The Colts appear fully committed to Taylor being the feature back, but he may lose some volume, which could also help his efficiency. Given Taylor’s injury history, it’s also possible one of these backs starts multiple games this season.

Taylor has mixed high volume with inefficient play. Usually, this is the recipe for a big decline in fantasy production. However, Taylor has a high rate of big plays, the trust of the coaching staff, and an excellent 2021 season, so there is always a chance he returns to that form. Taylor is a fine top-15 fantasy option, with a decent chance to finish in the top 10, and an outside chance to return to the league’s elite.

This news was originally published on this post .

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