Why the Edmonton Oilers should sign Mattias Ekholm to an extension

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The Edmonton Oilers will be looking to extend several free agents over the next few weeks, led by captain Connor McDavid. The second most important name on the re-sign list is defenceman Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton’s rock on the top pairing.

Ekholm has been money since arriving with the team from the Nashville Predators in February 2023. It was one of the best trade deadline deals in Oilers history, with the veteran solidifying the defence instantly. Those calm feet suffered some wobble during this year’s postseason, though, and his performances late in the final are the lingering memory for many fans today.

As contract talks should be heating up, it’s worth looking at why signing Ekholm is the right play for general manager Stan Bowman.

Downbeat in performance

Ekholm’s consistent level of play has been a calling card since he arrived in Edmonton. The only worries are injury and age. Injury had an impact in the postseason, as the coaching staff ran Ekholm when he was clearly less than 100 percent. A month-by-month tracking of his 2024-25 season highlights where he was unable to perform at previous levels.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

Ekholm was playing at a high level until February, when playing hurt caught up with the defenceman. He played six of the 14 March games, with a recovery in expected goals, but his playoff run shows a below-average expected goals for the postseason. He played one game against the Dallas Stars and then the entire final, missing earlier series against the Los Angeles Kings and the Vegas Golden Knights.

Despite the statistical recovery in the playoffs, visually, Ekholm’s performance was well off his own established ability. Single events can have enormous importance in a game, series and season while also being single events.

There is no doubt that injury contributed greatly to Ekholm’s lack of effectiveness in the final. He is an older player (35), so there is some risk in running him on the top pairing next year and beyond.

Do the Oilers have a replacement? 

Puck IQ offers us guidance about deployment against elites for each defenceman. Kris Knoblauch doled out the five-on-five versus elites, favouring Ekholm in 2024-25 (5:44 per game, 57 percent Dangerous Fenwick, 50 percent goal share) over Darnell Nurse (4:41 per game, 56 percent Dangerous Fenwick) and Brett Kulak (4:32 per game, 58 percent). When Jake Walman arrived, Knoblauch used the newcomer 3:44 per game, getting a 50 percent goal share against elite opponents.

All four lefties were quality during the regular season, but the Ekholm-Bouchard combination has delivered exceptional results versus elites over parts of three seasons. In 777 minutes versus elite competition, the pairing produced a Dangerous Fenwick of 58 percent and an actual goal share of 55 percent.

The Nurse, Walman and Kulak numbers against the league’s best were strong a year ago, and the team boasts a capable, veteran blue line. However, even with his injury problems, Ekholm with Evan Bouchard represents the best available option for the Oilers. During the period from late March through the end of the regular season that Ekholm was on the shelf, Knoblauch deployed Nurse, Kulak and Walman (in that order) against elites.

Succession plan 

Philip Broberg was the plan for the Oilers at left defence, but he now plays for the St. Louis Blues. He performed well in significant minutes versus elites relative to the other St. Louis defencemen, but would not have been placed in a feature role with Edmonton.

Edmonton is vulnerable on the left side of the defence because Ekholm, Walman and Kulak are all free agents after this season. Ekholm’s current contract has a cap hit of $6.25 million. If the Oilers walk him, Nurse ($9.25 million AAV, free agent 2030) would slide in and play top pair with partner Bouchard.

That’s less than ideal, and is made especially difficult because the Oilers have very little bubbling up from the minor leagues on the left side of the defence. Riley Stillman (age 27, 163 NHL games) and Cam Dineen (also 27, with 38 NHL games) are the veteran left-handed defencemen ticketed for the AHL Bakersfield Condors in 2025-26.

Bowman has added talent with some NHL promise over the last 12 months. The team acquired Notre Dame defender Paul Fischer in the Broberg deal, and he is showing promise. Fischer will play his junior college season in 2025-26.

Atro Leppanen was an exceptional offensive player from the defence position in Finland’s top league, but the chaos in his game excludes him from anything but third-pairing NHL work. There is no guarantee he’ll play in Edmonton this season. College grad Damien Carfagna also shows promise, but is not on the NHL radar this season. Nikita Yevseyev has plenty of KHL experience at a young age, but is unsigned and will play another year in Russia.

Bottom line

The Oilers have three defencemen heading for unrestricted free agency next summer. Ekholm plays at the top of the depth chart, and despite being an older player, has shown consistent quality against the opposition’s best.

Bowman could look to next year’s free-agent pool, but there’s every chance Ekholm will be one of the prize names on July 1, 2026. As shown above, his performance levels were strong before the injury, and his expected goals in the playoffs showed signs of rebounding.

The Oilers are between a rock and a hard place at left defence if Ekholm is allowed to walk. Signing the team’s top left defenceman to a two- or three-year deal has real risk, but not signing him means compromising the depth chart and weakening an important area of a close-to-championship roster.

Bowman needs to sign Ekholm. The math of last season suggests the key is to get the top pairing to the Stanley Cup Final healthy enough to have the torque to win the day. There isn’t another available player who can deliver Ekholm’s level of play. It’s extremely unlikely the team will be able to upgrade at the position next summer.

NHL teams don’t let their best defencemen get to free agency.

(Photo: Kyle Ross / Imagn Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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