How Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez went from MVP hopeful to disappointing to underrated in just a few years

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The Seattle Mariners hold in the second American League wild card spot and sit just two games out of first place in the AL West. Catcher Cal Raleigh is a superstar. They made two big-ticket acquisitions in front of the trade deadline in Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. And yet one of their most interesting features is where still-young star Julio Rodriguez has settled into this roster. 

Signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, Rodríguez has already gone from mega-prospect to emerging superstar to a disappointment to today, where he is at best under-appreciated and maybe even underrated.

Rodríguez right now is only 24 years old. That’s four years younger than Raleigh. That’s the same age as Seattle’s rookie third baseman Ben Williamson. It is incredibly young by Major League Baseball standards. 

And Rodríguez is certainly a flawed player, especially for a star. He doesn’t hit for a high average and he strikes out a lot alongside a low walk rate, which is always a decent illustration that his grasp of the strike zone and swing decisions aren’t great. That’s about it, though. He’s good at everything else.

Earlier this week, he became the first player in MLB history to reach 20 home runs and 20 steals in each of his first four seasons. He’s at 101 home runs and 107 steals in his career, already, at age 24. We’ll get to what the ballpark does to his hitting in a second, but keep in mind that he’s increased his stolen base percentage in each of his four seasons and this year has only been caught four times in 25 attempts. 

He’s an exceptional defender in center field, both in terms of range and with his arm. Baseball Savant has him in the 97th percentile in fielding range and 96th in arm strength. His pitching staff almost never has to worry about him chasing down a fly ball in center field (he leads AL center fielders in putouts and is second in the majors to Pete Crow-Armstrong). 

In terms of offense, playing half his games in Seattle’s T-Mobile Park has an affect. The league-wide slash line this season is .246/.316/.403. In T-Mobile Park, it is .225/.296/.374. Rodríguez has hit .216/.278/.336 at home and .292/.341/.542 on the road. 

When there’s an extreme ballpark at play, metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ can be helpful, while WAR attempts to tell the full story, accounting for the value provided on the basepaths and on defense, both obviously huge components of Julio’s game. 

Rodríguez currently sits with a 116 OPS+, or 16% better than league average at getting on base and hitting for power. Given his lack of walks, that’s not too bad at all. In wRC+, he’s at 113. We’re not talking about a below-average hitter or even an average hitter. We’re talking about someone firmly above average. 

Now add in the defense and baserunning and we’re looking at a 4.8 WAR with almost 30% of the season still to go. 

Want to guess how many position players in all of baseball have a higher WAR than Rodríguez this season?

If you did say a number, my response is almost certainly “lower.” 

Here’s the position-player WAR leaderboard entering Thursday’s slate of games: 

If we included pitchers, four more entrants slot in above Rodríguez (Cristopher Sánchez, Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler). 

Through this lens, not only is Rodríguez under-appreciated, he’s, yes, vastly underrated. 

Why is that? 

Well, it’s a pretty easy answer. He was so good, so fast, signed a monster contract extension and then failed to live up to the expectations that come with those sort of paychecks.

Rodríguez debuted on April 8, 2022, for the Mariners at age 21. He won Rookie of the Year and posted 6.2 WAR that season, putting up good enough numbers to finish seventh in MVP voting. The Mariners even advanced to the ALDS for the first time since 2001. In 2023, a 22-year-old Rodríguez hit .275/.333/.485 (130 OPS+) with 37 doubles, 32 homers, 103 RBI, 102 runs, 37 steals and finished fourth in AL MVP voting.

But the number in the middle is the problem: that August 2022 contract extension that guaranteed $210 million over 12 years and could swell much larger with escalators. It’s creative and relatively complicated, but it’s enough to be known as a “megadeal” and draw widespread criticism if he’s not playing like a superstar. 

Before the 2024 season officially opened, Rodríguez was among the favorites to win AL MVP. He didn’t get a single vote. He failed to make the All-Star team. He finished with 4.3 WAR while only slugging .409. He was a 20-20 guy, as previously established, but he just scraped in with 20 home runs and 24 steals. For plenty of major-league players, this would’ve marked a career year, but with this being Julio, it left a sour taste. He was supposed to be better than this.

That bad taste hasn’t been washed out out of the mouths for many this season. Some still consider him a disappointment. And, sure, maybe he isn’t the prince that was promised (yet?), but let’s look at who Julio Rodríguez in 2025 actually is: 

• An amazing defensive center fielder who is one of the better base-stealers in baseball
• An above-average hitter
• A great hitter on the road who gets his offensive stats suppressed at home by the most extreme pitcher’s park in baseball
• And, in terms of overall, all-around value, one of the best players in baseball in 2025

And again, he’s only 24 years old. There’s plenty of time for him to grow at the plate regarding his strike-zone discipline.

In just four seasons, Rodríguez has gone on a roller coaster, and right now, he’s landed at underrated.

This news was originally published on this post .