Inside: Stafford’s injury, Jake Ciely’s fantasy sleepers, a real-life GM’s key to success and my simple strategy to win your fantasy draft. We’ll start with the latter.
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Fantasy Targets: Last Year’s Leaders
“Keep it simple, stupid,” was how my high school basketball coach often admonished our team after unforced turnovers. He was always sure to pause and look at you before emphasizing stupid.
Coach Knoll’s philosophy was rarely appreciated, but it’s surprisingly well-suited for fantasy football. After reading a list of the most predictive metrics for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers, shared by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, I noticed that the simplest metric — fantasy points per game — was the only statistic to be either the most or second-most correlated with future fantasy production, regardless of position.
What are the most predictive QB stats in the @FantasyPtsData Suite?
> FPG and Fantasy Points per Dropback (FP/DB) are still king
> Designed rushing and scrambles are both predictive, edge to designed
> Pressure-To-Sack Ratio is more predictive than passing TDs! (in reverse) pic.twitter.com/cynzrUekbW
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 9, 2025
Which RB stats in the @FantasyPtsData Suite are the most stable and predictive of FPG from season to season?
– FPG itself beats everything, but share of team XFP is close behind
– Rushing volume generally > receiving volume, somewhat surprisingly
– Draft capital is a .448 pic.twitter.com/Z2F7jfE5JW
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) April 7, 2025
Finally got around to re-running correlations to next year’s FPG on almost every @FantasyPtsData stat for WRs.
+ First downs are still great, and I’ve loved seeing the increased usage of 1D/RR around the industry this year
+ Broadly, production > volume > efficiency pic.twitter.com/9wtVbhNEqn
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) April 22, 2025
Put simply: The best way to draft someone good this year is to draft someone who was good last year. It’s too simple to write endless columns about, but it gives you a better chance to draft values than any other metric.
If you’d employed this strategy prior to the 2024 season, you would’ve targeted players like De’Von Achane, who had finished fifth among RBs in points per game in 2023 but was usually drafted 16th at his position in 2024; Alvin Kamara, who finished RB3 but was drafted RB12; and Nico Collins, who finished WR7 but was drafted WR14. All three outscored their draft positions.
Who are this year’s bargains? To help you identify a simplified version of undervalued players to target, I compared average points per game (2024) with average draft position (2025). Here’s what stood out:
QB: Darnold’s big discount
The biggest discounts accompany quarterbacks in uncertain situations. Sam Darnold was the 11th-highest scoring quarterback in 2024, yet is being drafted as QB28. Leaving the comforts of Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota offense is worrisome, but early indications from Seattle are positive; Darnold is familiar with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s wide-zone, play-action-based scheme, and has plenty of targets, including an impressive rookie in fifth-rounder Tory Horton, plus Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp.
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Russell Wilson (finished QB17, being drafted QB33) and Geno Smith (finished QB 18, drafted QB 30) are also discounted for related reasons.
Quarterbacks who rarely run the ball are also discounted:
- Joe Burrow finished as the third-highest-scoring quarterback, yet is being drafted two slots lower (QB5).
- Baker Mayfield (finished QB4) should probably be higher than where he’s going (QB7), as should Jared Goff (finished QB9, drafted as QB15), especially given the latter’s new OC promising to maintain Detroit’s system.
RB: Kamara keeps rolling
Alvin Kamara is again an obvious discount, having finished as the fifth-highest scoring running back in 2024 yet being drafted as RB15 this year. He might be even cheaper to acquire now that Nick Underhill, who covers the Saints for New Orleans Football, has reported that the team wants to keep Kamara below 200 carries.
I’m still buying one of the league’s best pass-catching backs, who — despite never playing a full 17-game season — has finished as a top-16 back in every year of his career. Don’t let his age (30) scare you. Kamara’s still got it.
The Saints star is joined by other aging backs who continue to perform past their late 20s, including Derrick Henry (finished RB4, drafted as RB7) and James Conner (finished RB 14, drafted as RB19), and committee-risk Chuba Hubbard (finished RB12, drafted as RB 17) is also discounted.
Other bargains include injury risks like Joe Mixon (finished RB9, drafted RB20), who has not suffered any setbacks but will have his foot injury re-evaluated closer to the season start, and J.K. Dobbins (finished RB18, drafted RB34), who appears to be the 1B in Denver, where the run game is a focal point.
WR: The Godwin question
There’s always an excuse to doubt Buccaneers receivers. Whether it’s age, injury risk, a new offensive coordinator or surrounding talent, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are notoriously undervalued in fantasy circles.
This year, Godwin offers the biggest points-per-game discount among all top players, being drafted a whopping 37 spots below his rank among receivers last year (he finished WR2, yet is being drafted as WR39).
- Why? There’s uncertainty around his ankle injury. Rick Stroud reported that GM Jason Licht said Godwin is “exactly where they anticipated and hoped he would be at this point,” but added that “We’ve still got a ways to go.” Still, that risk is baked into his price, making Godwin a no-brainer even before his average draft position.
Teammate Evans, the 11-year veteran, sees his annual offseason discount continue into his age-31 season. He finished as WR11, yet is being drafted at WR17. Could we again expect him to produce over 1,000 yards receiving? He’s done it 11/11 seasons, and now he can best Jerry Rice’s career record by making it 12 straight.
Other WR discounts include veterans Stefon Diggs (finished WR18, drafted WR36), Jakobi Meyers (finished WR23, drafted WR37) and Cooper Kupp (finished WR22, drafted WR35).
Higher-priced discount receivers include:
- Tee Higgins (finished WR6, drafted WR11)
- Davante Adams (finished WR10, drafted WR14)
- Rashee Rice (finished WR15, drafted WR24)
- DeVonta Smith (finished WR17, drafted WR26)
None are exciting up-and-comers. All might outscore their draft positions. Now, over to Jake for his favorite sleepers.
Jake Ciely: Sleepers to target
Yesterday morning, I shared a list of sleepers The Athletic’s fantasy staff are targeting in their drafts. Three of my favorites are all receivers:
WR Marvin Mims. Nearly flawless over his latest five regular-season games, Mims caught 23 of 26 targets for five touchdowns and an average of 68.2 yards per game. His use as Denver’s clear No. 2, along with surprisingly limited use for Evan Engram, moves Mims up in my rankings and projections. If Mims is truly the No. 2 option and sees 100-plus targets, he’s a tremendous value with WR3 upside.
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WR Ricky Pearsall. He’s been a favorite of mine, and I have plenty of shares. I believe the added appeal for Pearsall is his role in San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel void. No, he’s not a 1-for-1 replacement, but when Brandon Aiyuk returns, I see him as a threat to send Jauan Jennings to the No. 3 role, which keeps Pearsall as the 49ers’ No. 2 receiver, with WR3+ potential for you.
WR Jayden Higgins. The Texans’ rookie receiver has similarities to Nico Collins (per Dane Brugler) and Marvin Jones (per … me), and is stepping into the No. 2 role as a lesser version of “this year’s Brian Thomas” — an overlooked rookie wideout who deserves way more respect.
Back to Jacob.
QB Watch: The Stafford question
Fair or not, Matthew Stafford’s ranking among the NFL elite is questioned nearly as often as Jerry Jones’ decision-making.
Scroll through the comments of Mike Sando’s 2025 QB Tiers, and you’ll find vigorous debate over the 37-year-old’s spot in the first tier, where he ranks behind only Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Is Stafford the league’s fifth-best QB? Name your QB5 choice here. I won’t share my perspective yet, but this highlight might suggest where I stand.
Sub-question: Did Stafford’s injury risk factor into your vote? It might not matter for preseason rankings, but it certainly matters for this Rams season.
Just days after head coach Sean McVay downplayed the severity of Stafford’s back soreness — “If we were playing a game this week, he would be playing,” said McVay — the 16-year veteran had a setback.
Stafford threw the ball “60-plus times” on Sunday, per McVay, and was expected to return to practice yesterday to ramp up his workload. Instead, Stafford remained sidelined as his back “doesn’t feel great,” according to the coach. There’s no timeline for Stafford’s return from this injury, caused by an aggravated disk, though he’ll be monitored on a day-to-day basis.
If Stafford’s injury lingers, Jimmy Garoppolo would start Week 1 against the Texans’ stifling defense. I suspect Davante Adams wouldn’t be happy.
Extra Points
🔮 The league’s best-drafting GM. Speaking of Bucs receivers, I’ve written at length about the rave reviews Emeka Egbuka has drawn in training camp. The rare slot receiver to be a first-round pick, Egbuka’s quick ascendance shouldn’t be a surprise.
Since 2014, players drafted by GM Jason Licht in the first five rounds have started more games than players chosen by any other team. This morning, Dan Pompei shared that stat along with the secret to Licht’s success.
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🎙Who’s got next? “The Athletic Football Show” examined potential out-of-nowhere units this season, inspired by the surprising success of the Commanders’ offense and Broncos’ defense last season. Listen on Apple and Spotify.
👀 How did Cam Ward look? The Athletic’s film guru Ted Nguyen reviewed preseason tape for notable rookie quarterbacks, including Ward — “looked comfortable and displayed a natural feel for the game” — as well as Jaxson Dart, Tyler Shough and Shedeur Sanders.
💼 Jon Gruden’s win. The latest saga in the lawsuit between the former Raiders coach and the NFL unfolded in the Nevada Supreme Court yesterday, with a verdict in favor of Gruden that ensures his case against the league will be public, rather than behind closed doors.
📃 Steelers star dispute. T.J. Watt’s record-setting extension stole headlines from the quiet hold-in of defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. The 35-year-old All-Pro has yet to receive a raise on his $14.5 million average pay — a deal he agreed to last offseason.
“I understand that I signed a contract last year,” Heyward said. “But to be completely honest with you, when I signed that, I told them, ‘When I have an All-Pro year, expect me to come back.’ … I think everybody kind of giggled a little bit. But in my head, I used it as motivation to go out there and prove it.”
It could cost the Steelers, as Heyward hasn’t ruled out skipping games.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: See which quarterback ties Patrick Mahomes for No. 1 in Mike Sando’s 2025 Quarterback Tiers.
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(Photo: Ella Hall / Getty Images)
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