Fantasy Football: 5 players with declining ADP

Fantasy Sports

add

Estimated reading time: 20 minutes

The NFL is in full swing, as multiple weeks of training camp and the first week of the preseason are in the books. News, injuries and preseason usage have caused the ADPs of several players to change.

Here are five players who have seen a noticeable swing in ADP. In all five cases, I agree that the player should be drafted in a different spot now than before, so I have subsequently changed their rankings.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Thursday, August 14

WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: 2.12)

The Chargers drafted McConkey at the start of the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He immediately had a role as the team’s slot receiver while playing on the outside for a decent number of snaps. He started slightly slower than other rookies, with 26-67 yards over his first six games. He caught six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints and had another two relatively quiet games, but over the rest of the season, he was a must-start player.

McConkey scored at least 14.5 PPR points in each of his final seven regular-season games. From Week 11 until the end of the season, he averaged 18.7 PPR points per game, the 11th-best figure for a wide receiver during that time. He saved his best for last, with a nine-catch, 197-yard and one-touchdown performance in a playoff loss to the Houston Texans. If including that effort, he averaged 20.7 PPR points per game over his last eight contests.

Most receivers who primarily play in the slot tend to be strong against zone defense and not as great against man. His 2.98 yards per route run against man defenses ranked second among the 57 receivers with at least 115 routes against man. That includes the third-highest receptions per route rate (21.1%) and the most avoided tackles per route against man (0.65).

The main reason for his recent declining ADP is the Keenan Allen signing. A secondary reason could be that he has missed some practice time due to injury, but he has recently returned to practice. McConkey’s lack of competition for targets was one of the reasons for optimism for McConkey, despite an average routes per game rate. The Chargers had Quentin Johnston and subbed out Joshua Palmer for second-round rookie Tre Harris as his primary competition, which would be no problem for his target rate. Allen has four years of experience as Justin Herbert’s top target. While McConkey will continue being the team’s top target, this has led to a decrease in his projected targets.

Allen also has experience out of the slot, which is where McConkey primarily plays. Both Allen and McConkey are fully capable of playing on the outside, but there is at least a slight chance that there will be some plays where McConkey is off the field while Allen is in the slot. It’s also worth noting Kyren Williams and Chase Brown‘s ADPs are in the same ballpark as McConkey’s. Williams had a new contract extension, and the hype around Brown has been high since the release of Zack Moss. That could also contribute to McConkey’s fall.

McConkey will continue to play under offensive coordinator Greg Roman and catch passes fromJustin Herbert. Having Herbert as a quarterback is great because he’s one of the few top passers in the league. McConkey will remain the team’s clear top target, despite the changes that were made to the wide receiver room.

There has been a concern all offseason due to Roman’s past as an offensive coordinator and the other changes that were made on offense. During his four-year stretch as the San Francisco 49ers‘ offensive coordinator, two years in the same position with the Buffalo Bills and four years with the Baltimore Ravens, Roman ranked in the bottom two in targets to wide receivers and the top two in run rate. The Chargers recorded only the 10th-highest run rate and the 15th-highest rate of throwing to wide receivers in 2024.

That will likely change this season. The team added Omarion Hampton andNajee Harris at running back, Tyler Conklin at tight end and Mekhi Becton at guard. First and foremost, that allows them to run the ball more frequently. Part of the reason they passed so much relative to Roman’s past teams is Herbert, but it was also due to having two running backs whom they moved on from this offseason, and no team prioritized picking them up, even on league-minimum contracts.

Now the Chargers have two running backs they prioritized and a right guard who ranked in the top 10 at the position in PFF run-blocking grade last season. That will result in a decrease in routes per game by McConkey this year.

Conklin is a more experienced receiving tight end than the others on the Chargers’ roster, while Hampton should be a better receiving back than those whom Los Angeles featured last season. This could also lead to a slightly lower target rate for the wide receivers in general.

McConkey proved he could be a top-five fantasy wide receiver at the end of last season. The road to get there could be a little more difficult in 2025, as the Chargers added several players who could lighten McConkey’s load. A top-15 finish is much more likely than a top-five finish.

RB Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 7.02)

Johnson was a backup to Leshon Williams during his first two seasons at Iowa, playing predominantly in short-yardage situations. Johnson’s numbers weren’t all that impressive in 2023, but he earned the starting job over Williams by the start of the 2024 season. Williams entered the transfer portal after the first three weeks of the season, allowing Johnson to play an even higher percentage of the offensive snaps.

Johnson was very impressive as a runner in his one season as a starter, averaging over 125 rushing yards per game. His rate of hitting big runs was among the best in the league. He ranks among the top 25 fastest running backs in the FBS from the last eight seasons, according to PFF’s tracking data, despite a below-average 4.57-second 40-yard dash at the combine. Johnson had the highest rate of zone plays among those running backs, but his quality of play in both zone and gap concepts was relatively similar. Johnson depended more on ideal situations than most running backs, dominating more than nearly every other running back on perfectly blocked plays. Still, he was only average compared to FBS backs on non-perfectly blocked plays.

While Johnson posts a respectable 86.3 career rushing grade, that is the lowest among the top 11 rookie running backs by consensus rankings. That was mainly due to his relatively average grades throughout 2023. He also has the least experience as a receiver, with just 36 total targets. He gained 63 receiving yards in his final collegiate game against Nebraska but was held to 10 receiving yards or fewer in nine of his 12 games.

Johnson only projects to be a two-down back in the NFL. Along with his lack of experience catching passes, he struggled as a pass protector. Johnson is athletically gifted enough to become a three-down back at some point in his career, but it’s unlikely to happen as a rookie.

He was selected by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have one of the best third-down backs in the NFL inJaylen Warren, whose snap rate on early downs has slowly but steadily improved from 25.2% as a rookie to 35.8% in 2023 and 37.2% over the last six weeks of last season once he was healthy. Warren seemed destined for an even larger role on early downs in 2025 thanks to his strong play andNajee Harris‘ departure.

There hasn’t been a lot of buzz around Johnson, while there has been for free agent addition Kenneth Gainwell, who played ahead of Johnson in the first preseason game. Gainwell played the first four snaps and then left the game, suggesting he might not be as well regarded as other Steelers’ starters, but he’s already carved out enough of a role that Pittsburgh doesn’t need to see much from him in the preseason. The fact that this could be a three-man committee, instead of two, hurts Johnson’s odds of being a fantasy starter.

The good news for Johnson is that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is the most run-heavy coordinator in the league. In 2023, bothNajee Harris andJaylen Warren finished in the top 24 in fantasy points, and this running back pair should be even better. A lot of Johnson’s value could depend on what happens at quarterback. The Steelers addedAaron Rodgers, so we could see their run rate change significantly. If the Steelers make a major change to their run and pass rates, Johnson is much less likely to have fantasy value this season.

Smith is known for his zone-blocking schemes. The Steelers had the fourth-highest rate of using zone runs last season. Johnson is very experienced in zone runs but performed better in gap schemes. Warren also tends to play better in gap schemes, so it’s, at least, possible we see the team shift more towards a neutral use of zone runs.

The Steelers completely re-worked their offensive line last season, including three early picks on offensive linemen. First-round pick Troy Fautanu only played one game as a rookie due to injuries, while Mason McCormick played exactly as you would expect a fourth-round rookie to perform as a starter. While the offensive line seemed relatively average, the Steelers have also emphasized blocking among their tight ends, with Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward having decent run-block grades. Ideally, the youth and continuity on the offensive line can lead to some improvement, but we should expect the line to be roughly around league average.

Johnson is likely to finish second in fantasy points among running backs on the Steelers. Still, he might be one of the most fantasy-relevant backups if the Steelers continue running at an exceptionally high rate.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (ADP: 5.04)

Joe Mixon was a second-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017. From 2018-2023, he consistently had an RB7-RB11 finish, outside of one season. He averaged anywhere from 15-20 carries per game. As his career progressed, he would get more involved in the passing game, and the offense improved, leading to more touchdowns. 

He was a good running back with a lot of volume. His PFF rushing grade generally fluctuated from 74.0-82.0 each season and 71.0-81.0 overall. He’s been good enough to remain a starter, but never good enough to be among the NFL’s elite fantasy talents. The Houston Texans traded for Mixon last season, and it was more of the same. Mixon was tied for eighth in fantasy points per game, finishing with 17.5 carries per game and a relatively average level of play.

Mixon ranks fifth to eighth in most per-game metrics over the last five years. That includes 66.1 rushing yards per game, 45.8 yards after contact, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 10.3 fantasy points from rushing and 16.7 PPR fantasy points.

Mixon has been known as a two-down back throughout his career, as both the Bengals and Texans have used other running backs on third downs, but Mixon has been a decent receiving back in recent seasons. Mixon ranks sixth over the last three seasons in receptions and receiving yards. His receiving grade is the eighth-highest among the 42 running backs with at least 500 routes run. It’s unlikely that Mixon will start playing on third downs, but he is fully capable of catching passes on earlier downs.

Mixon has always been an early down back with heavy usage on early downs, at the goal line and in short-yardage situations. That role is in question this season due to his injury and the Nick Chubb addition. Chubb’s had the exact same role throughout his career, and he’s taken a lot of the first-team reps throughout training camp. Mixon has been on the non-football injury list since the start of training camp, and it’s unclear if he will be ready to play in Week 1. The longer we go without an update, the larger the odds he misses time, and the more likely a different running back can win over the coaching staff to permanently earn a larger role in the offense.

The Texans brought in a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley. This will be Caley’s first time leading an NFL offense, so the offense will be less predictable than most. We can be decently confident that Mixon will still have a lead role, based on past offenses Caley’s been a part of and the Texans not bringing in any significant competition for the early down snaps. His offenses have been slightly run-heavy and average-to-good. This is largely in line with the Texans of last season.

The big question is how much more the team will pass this season relative to last season.Nico Collins missed five games,Stefon Diggs missed nine games, and Tank Dell missed three games last season. The team moved on from Diggs, and Dell is unlikely to play this year, but Houston traded forChristian Kirk and draftedJayden Higgins in the second round andJaylin Noel in the third. If Mixon’s fantasy production decreases this season, it would most likely be from the team passing more often, leading to fewer rushing attempts.

Mixon has played behind a below-average run-blocking offensive line every season of his NFL career, and that will be no different this year. Their former left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, was known throughout his career for being an excellent pass protector. Still, he was also the only Texans offensive lineman to earn a run-blocking grade above 64.0 last season. The team replaced Tunsil with Cam Robinson, who has graded 60.0 or worse in run blocking each of the previous six seasons. The other four projected starters all played a significant role last season, but the team also brought in other older veterans and spent a second-round pick onAireontae Ersery. There should be a lot of competition for those starting jobs, which will ideally lead to a better version of the line, even without Tunsil.

Mixon has consistently been a low-end RB1, but that will likely change. The combination of his age, more receiving options, the Chubb addition and the Laremy Tunsil loss could move him down multiple spots. He should be viewed as a low-end RB2, with the upside of remaining a low-end RB1, but also the risk of getting benched in favor of Chubb.

RB Cam Skattebo, New York Giants (ADP: 9.05)

Cameron Skattebo started his career as a backup for the Big Sky’s Sacramento State Hornets. He averaged 9.1 yards per carry in his first season, leading to a starting job in 2022. He again received a high rushing grade with 7.0 yards per carry, leading him to transfer to Arizona State. He continued in a feature role in 2023, but his numbers were roughly half as good with much stronger competition. He improved in a big way for his final collegiate season to be one of the highest-graded running backs in the FBS.

Skattebo is one of the most unique running backs of the draft class. At the combine, he measured 5-foot-10 with a 29.88-inch arm length, among the bottom 10 percent of running backs. However, his vertical and broad jumps were in the top 20 percent, and his weight (219 pounds) was near average. He was clearly the slowest among the top 11 projected rookie running backs, averaging a max speed of 0.7 miles per hour less than the next closest running back. However, his large size relative to his height makes him great at converting first downs. His 33.6% first downs per attempt was the highest among the same top 11 backs in the class.

Skattebo’s statistics are very reminiscent of a running back of his size. He is much better than most running backs on non-perfectly blocked plays because he can get challenging yards. However, he is relatively poor on perfectly blocked plays because he doesn’t have the speed to break as many long runs. This generally isn’t great for fantasy football, outside of those on a high-scoring offense, because of all the goal-line touchdowns.

Typically, running backs of Skattebo’s size aren’t known for their receiving.Josh Jacobs,Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Miller, Mike Davis, C.J. Anderson,Javonte Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Doug Martin are 5-foot-10 or shorter running backs who weigh 219 pounds or more with at least 1,500 snaps in the last decade. Jacobs has the highest receiving grade of the group at 68.5. However, Skattebo has shown much promise as a receiver and could be the exception. His 1.62 yards per route run is tied withAshton Jeanty as the best among those 11 running backs expected to be considered on the first two days of the draft. Both his cumulative and per-route numbers were generally very positive.

The Giants’ backfield battle should be wide open, and we could potentially see changes throughout the season. Devin Singletary started the 2024 season, but fifth-round rookieTyrone Tracy Jr. quickly took over the starting role. After a few strong starts, Tracy was the lowest graded running back over the second half of the season among those with at least 100 offensive snaps.

Unfortunately, Skattebo missed over a week of practice due to a hamstring injury. This is the time of year when Skattebo should be earning playing time with the starters, but instead, it’s more time for Tracy to gain on his lead over Skattebo. ESPN’s Giants reporter Jordan Raanan also said that there is “no competition” in the backfield and that Skattebo has received minimal first-team reps. The injury and the quote were enough to lower Skattebo’s ADP while also raising Tracy’s. 

Skattebo joins a Giants team led by Brian Daboll. His 2022 and 2023 splits look a little different than 2024, largely because he hadSaquon Barkley. Despite losing Barkley, he still ran at an above-average rate, which is good news for Skattebo. He’s the best receiving back on the team, which will ideally lead to a higher running back target rate. Russell Wilson is expected to be the starting quarterback, and he has plenty of experience throwing to running backs in the last few seasons.

The Giants’ offense has been among the lowest-scoring in the league over the last two seasons, which is not great for the fantasy production of anyone in the offense. Skattebo at the very least should be a goal-line and short-yardage back, but that might not matter much if the Giants’ offense isn’t reaching the goal line.

New York’s offensive line is mainly composed of Andrew Thomas and journeyman linemen who are only borderline NFL starters. The Giants didn’t make any substantial changes to their line in the offseason. They finished as a bottom-10 team in terms of run block grade, which was part of the problem. Devin Singletary andTyrone Tracy struggled to find success last season. However, this is also one of the reasons Skattebo is the perfect back for this offense. He was one of the best running backs in the league on non-perfectly blocked runs, and he will experience that a lot with New York. Skattebo’s play on non-perfectly blocked runs could give him the edge in the Giants backfield competition.

Skattebo was a fourth-round running back, but given his quality of play and situation, he should be able to make an impact on the Giants, assuming he can stay healthy and earn the coaches’ trust.

WR Jack Bech, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 14.02)

Jack Bech started his career at LSU and was remarkably high on the Tigers’ depth chart. Bech ran the most routes in 2021 at 332, while Jaray Jenkins,Brian Thomas Jr., Trey Palmer, Kayshon Boutte andMalik Nabers all finished between 200-300. Bech fell down the depth chart in 2022. While Palmer left for the NFL, the rest of the receivers surpassed him on the depth chart. Bech transferred to TCU, where he was initially lost in the shuffle among wide receivers. He’s dealt with injuries throughout his career, which likely impacted his playing time.

However, 2024 hit, and Bech vaulted to the top of the depth chart. He was a very effective receiver across the board, despite only having a 21.5% target rate. Our draft guide gave him perfect 10s in competitive toughness and his hands. While he’s known for his toughness, our draft guide also notes his routes can lack nuance, and he doesn’t show diverse releases off the line. He’s played significantly better against zone coverage than man.

While Bech seemed to potentially be the Raiders’ second wide receiver when drafted, his first preseason game painted a different picture.

Dont’e Thornton Jr. started for the Raiders, while Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker only played one drive.

The Raiders seemed to have the least depth at wide receiver last season after they traded Davante Adams. Meyers was the clear star of the group, while Tucker turned into an every-down starter, and players like D.J. Turner and Terrace Marshall Jr. played some of the snaps in three-receiver sets. The Raiders reloaded at the position in the draft with Bech, Thornton in the fourth and Tommy Mellott in the sixth. It’s possible that whoever wins the second wide receiver job will have value this season.

The Raiders started the game with Thornton as the X receiver, Tucker as the Z and Meyers in the slot. After the first drive, Bech replaced Tucker as the Z receiver, and Alex Bachman took over in the slot. Thornton was taken out after the third drive, while Bech played the rest of the first half. While Bech has some experience in the slot, he consistently played on the outside. This suggests Thornton’s starting job is secure, so Bech is competing with Tucker for snaps. We have seen several rookie wide receivers fourth or lower on the depth chart in the first preseason game who reach the starting lineup by Week 1, so it’s still possible Bech earns a role in three-receiver sets.

Even if Bech does become a starter, he might not play much in two-receiver sets. The Raiders lived in 11 personnel in this game, but Brock Bowers only played one snap. We don’t know how much 12 personnel the Raiders will run this season with Bowers and Michael Mayer.

This news was originally published on this post .