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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints
Tank Bigsby starts for the Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. started in the first preseason game.
The Jaguars used a relatively basic running back rotation in their first game. Etienne took the first drive, Bigsby played the second and third, Bhayshul Tuten took the fourth drive to the eighth drive, and LeQuint Allen played the ninth and 10th drive, and just four plays were exceptions when drives ran long and the Jaguars wanted to give the current running back a break. These kinds of rotations are common in the preseason and give us a look at the current order of the depth chart, but they do little to help us understand how running backs might rotate during the season.
This week, the backfield better resembled how it might look in the regular season. On the first drive, Bigsby played on first and second downs, while Etienne played on third down. This makes sense, given the two running backs’ strengths. On the second drive, Etienne started, played two snaps, followed by Bigsby’s two, and another four for Etienne. This put the two running backs in basically a 50/50 split. They surprisingly were near-even in routes, targets and carries. We can expect this to shift at least a little bit in the regular season with Etienne catching more passes and Bigsby running more, but we shouldn’t expect these tendencies to be as strong as last season, given how Liam Coen used his running backs in Tampa Bay last season.
Currently, Etienne has a consensus ADP two rounds earlier than Bigsby, ranging from one round or less on ESPN and Yahoo! to four rounds on Sleeper. These should be closer together, and if anything, Bigsby should be the one drafted earlier.
For the second straight game, Tuten did not play a snap with the starters. He missed some time during training camp, so it’s understandable that he hasn’t worked his way to the starters yet. He may mix in more frequently as the season progresses, hurting both Bigsby and Etienne’s fantasy value. The only way any of these players will become a consistent fantasy starter this season is if one starts to clearly outperform the other two.
Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed make their preseason debuts: Both wide receivers missed the second half of the 2024 season.
The first and most obvious takeaway is that it’s good to see both players are healthy. We expect both players to rarely leave the field this season and both played 100% of New Orleans’ snaps with the starters, so this game was also in line with expectations.
Brandin Cooks was among the veterans not playing in this game, so we don’t have a great view of how the wide receivers will be rotated or used this season. The general expectation is that Cooks would join Olave and Shaheed in three-receiver sets, but that might not be the case, as none of the three receivers primarily play out of the slot.
Last week, Brandon Cooks and Mason Tipton were the primary receivers on the first drive, while Cedrick Wilson Jr. played in the slot in three receiver sets. In this game, Wilson also played in three-receiver sets and was the slot receiver more often than not. Wilson had seven snaps out of the slot in 11 personnel on the first three drives, compared to Olave’s three and Shaheed’s three. This suggests Wilson could have a larger role in the offense in 11 personnel, and Cooks could end up being more of a backup to Olave and Shaheed. It’s also possible we simply see a rotation of Olave, Shaheed and Cooks playing in the slot, while all of them take between 30-40% of the snaps in 11 personnel.
It’s worth noting that Wilson’s best season was in 2021 with the Dallas Cowboys, where he caught 45 passes for 602 yards and six touchdowns as the Cowboys‘ primary slot receiver, while CeeDee Lamb was playing more snaps lined up out wide. Kellen Moore was the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator that season.
The slot role in New Orleans is particularly noteworthy because of Moore’s history. Over the last three seasons, Moore’s primary slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR points per game. His six primary outside receivers in three receiver sets have largely been unrosterable in fantasy, but the major exception wasA.J. Brown last season. We will likely see those tendencies change this season due to Olave and Shaheed playing significantly on the outside and their talents, but we could see Wilson receiving a few more targets than originally anticipated, while Olave and Shaheed receive a little less.
Miscellaneous Notes
- Wide receiver and cornerback Travis Hunter is dealing with an upper-body injury and was announced out prior to the game. Dyami Brown was also ruled out for an undisclosed reason.
- Last week, Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter split snaps in the slot with the starters. In this game, it was a split between Thomas and Austin Trammell, further suggesting the Jaguars won’t have a clear slot receiver and instead will move their wide receivers around more often than Liam Coen’s offense did with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season.
- The only Jaguars skill player not to play last week was tight end Johnny Mundt, who has missed most of the last three weeks due to an upper-body injury. He and Hunter Long are listed at the same spot on the depth chart, but Mundt was the clear second tight end based on usage with the starters in this game.
- The Saints rested running back Alvin Kamara and wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed last week. This week, it was again Kamara, along with wide receiver Brandin Cooks and tight end Juwan Johnson.
- Kendre Miller played 14 snaps with the starters while Cam Akers played four, including three on third down. If Kamara were to suffer an injury, we could expect Miller to be the early down back to pick up off waivers, but Akers would also play snaps in those passing situations.
- Saints tight ends Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill remain on the physically unable to perform list. Hill is expected to miss significant time this season.
- Saints backup wide receiver Bub Means landed on injured reserve this week due to an ankle injury he suffered last week.
- Rookie running back Devin Neal is expected to miss a few weeks due to a hamstring injury.
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears
Coming soon!
Table Notes
- Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
- Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
- Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.
This news was originally published on this post .
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