Why Brock Bowers is falling down fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Sports

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• Brock Bowers rotates with the starters:The Las Vegas Raiders tight end participated in a rotation with the starters during the Raiders‘ first and second preseason games.
• Chip Kelly has a history with rotations: Kelly’s had one tight end lead his team in offensive snaps and another in receiving production in each of his seasons as an NFL head coach.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated Reading Time: 15 mins

In this week’s preseason fantasy football recap, I mentioned that there should be some concern about drafting Bowers in the second round based on his preseason usage. Considering Bowers is the consensus top tight end, and that there is always some level of skepticism around preseason usage data, it was worth going into a deeper dive into my process, showing everything that led up to Bowers moving down before the preseason games, and why after this was the right time to move Bowers down in my rankings.

Playing time concerns before the 2024 season

There were concerns about Bowers’ playing time before his rookie season. He is listed at 235 pounds on the Raiders website. The only lighter tight ends playing significant snaps are Taysom Hill (221 pounds), who is not a traditional tight end, and Juwan Johnson (231). Other players who weigh similarly and have also played significant snaps in recent seasons are Chig Okonkwo (238 pounds), Evan Engram (240) and Dalton Kincaid (240). Typically, tight ends of that size play a relatively limited snap rate.

The top-three fantasy tight ends average an 85% snap rate over the last eight seasons, with a 75% minimum. Last season, Trey McBride was at 90%, George Kittle landed at 86%, and Bowers finished at 85%.

Bowers is a better receiving tight end than those four, but he also has more competition for playing time than the typical tight end. In 2023, the Raiders spent the 35th overall pick on Michael Mayer. In the last six drafts, the only tight ends drafted higher were Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Bowers, Kincaid, Sam LaPorta and Kyle Pitts.

Mayer is a bigger tight end and was deemed the best inline blocker of the 2023 draft class. In his rookie season, he was used primarily on early downs and gained some passing-down work as the season progressed. It was clear the team would use a lot of two-tight end sets, but it was understandable if the Raiders used Mayer significantly on early downs without Bowers on the field to take advantage of Mayer’s blocking.

Concerns play out in early 2024

Bowers played between 65 and 69% of Las Vegas’ offensive snaps over the first three games, which was completely in line with players of Bowers’ size. Bowers and Mayer were typically on the field together for 12 personnel. Bowers played 82 snaps in 11 personnel compared to Mayer’s 58. Specifically on early downs, Mayer played 51 snaps to Bowers’ 50, while Bowers had the clear edge on third downs, finishing with 27 snaps to Mayer’s six.

Someone can be a top-10 fantasy tight end playing on that few snaps, and they can finish even higher when they are as talented as Bowers. He scored 12.6 PPR points per game during that three-game stretch. That rate is typically good for a TE5-TE7 finish throughout an entire season.

Brock Bowers dominates without Michael Mayer

Mayer stepped away from football for two months to deal with a personal off-field issue. When he returned in the middle of the season, the Raiders never went back to their previous usage. Bowers averaged 16.1 PPR points per game over the rest of the season. He finished the year with the most fantasy points for a tight end and the third-most in points per game at 15.5. Kittle scored 15.8 and McBride 15.6.

Bowers led the league in routes run by a decent margin at 592. His 88.4 receiving grade was third-best among tight ends behind Kittle and McBride. His 0.44 fantasy points per route were sixth-best among tight ends, behind Kittle, Mark Andrews, Jonnu Smith, Dallas Goedert and McBride. Part of his problem was that only 81.1% of his targets were catchable, which was lower than that of other top tight ends. While that hurt, it’s worth noting tight ends like Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta had even lower catchable target rates despite better quarterback play.

Several changes for 2025

This offseason, everything changed for the Raiders’ offense. The franchise added a new head coach in Pete Carroll, a new offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly, a new quarterback in Geno Smith, a new running back in Ashton Jeanty and two new wide receivers to improve the top four of the depth chart.

On one hand, the Smith addition should help Bowers’ fantasy production. Smith’s 64.8% accuracy rate last season was 11th-best among 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. The Raiders quarterbacks had a combined 57.9% rate, the seventh-lowest among teams. This should lead Bowers’ fantasy points per target to improve. Bowers is also only 22 years old, and the general expectation is for players that age to continue to improve.

However, the Jeanty addition should be a problem for Bowers’ fantasy production. The Raiders ran the ball on 33% of plays last season, which was the third-lowest rate in the league. Las Vegas used four different running backs last season, and all of them reached third on their current team’s depth chart, at best, this offseason, speaking to how much room the Raiders had to improve in the run game. The three rookies will also see at least a slightly higher target rate than the players they are replacing. This should lead to both a decrease in routes and a decrease in target rate for Bowers.

The consensus is that the two pros outweigh the two cons, and that Bowers will finish the season as the top fantasy tight end. 

Fewer changes for Trey McBride and George Kittle

McBride is arguably the safest pick fantasy football managers can make in their fantasy draft. His head coach, offensive coordinator, quarterback, top four running backs, top four wide receivers and two backup tight ends all remained exactly the same from last season. McBride has a low average depth of target and simply catches a high volume of easy passes. He will likely play similarly to last season, or potentially score more touchdowns.

Kittle similarly has the same head coach and quarterback. The San Francisco 49ers didn’t have an offensive coordinator in 2024 but elevated Klay Kubiak from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator. Kittle’s on the opposite end of the spectrum as McBride, as he doesn’t see as many targets as other top tight ends but has the talent to make several big plays. The running back room has a healthy Christian McCaffrey, while the wide receiver room includes the same players except for the Deebo Samuel loss. The wide receiver room dealt with several injuries last year and is already dealing with injuries to start this year. However, Kittle’s style of play can handle a lower target rate, given his talent. There is concern that his quality of play could decline given that he’s 31 years old.

It is generally fair to expect similar production for these tight ends this season. They join Bowers as the clear top three fantasy tight ends who should be drafted multiple rounds before everyone else. While this article spells out my concerns over Bowers, this remains true.

Concern around Michael Mayer before the preseason

This summer, I did a series of player profiles, detailing what could go right and what could go wrong for every player. In May, I detailed the concerns around Bowers’ playing time because Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator.

“If there is one concern for Bowers, it’s Kelly’s experience with tight ends in the NFL. He had a two-man committee at tight end in his four seasons as an NFL head coach. With Philadelphia, Zach Ertz was the receiving tight end while Brent Celek was an every-down tight end. In San Francisco, Brent’s brother, Garrett Celek, was the every-down tight end, while Vance McDonald was the receiving tight end. In three of those four years, the tight end who led the team in snaps was different than the tight end who led the team in receiving yards. The Raiders have the duo to make this work, as Mayer plays more snaps and Bowers plays in pass situations. Luckily, Kelly had one primary tight end throughout his recent time as a college coach and coordinator.”

Ertz played 72% of his team’s offensive snaps in his first year with Kelly, which is in line with other lighter tight ends, even though Ertz doesn’t fit that description. Once Kelly left, he jumped up to an 85% snap rate, and he had seasons as a top-three fantasy tight end once Kelly was no longer his head coach. Throughout Kelly’s time in the NFL, he used 12 personnel at an above-average rate. The Raiders had the highest rate of using 12 personnel already last season, so there was no question that both players would play a decent amount of snaps.

The concerns were amplified with the Jeanty selection because they will have more reason to want their run-blocking tight end on the field more often. However, I worked under the assumption that Bowers was different enough from the past tight ends Kelly has worked with, and they would rather have him on the field despite having Mayer as an option.

The talk about Mayer this offseason has been nothing but positive. Pete Carroll had great words to say about him during mandatory minicamp. “I thought Mike [Michael Mayer] had a great off-season with us. We started out going heart to heart, and he understood what we’re all about, and he embraced it and took it as well as anybody could take the challenge of bringing it day in and day out. He had a great camp, and he was doing well before Brock [Bowers] got here, and the two of them just went head-to-head just trying to make a play here and there and going back and forth. And they were just great contributors. It’s a terrific position group for us. Ian Thomas is coming in really, really liven it up as well. So, we have a very good position group right there and excited about what they’re going to do, but I thought Michael had a great camp.”

You can easily find article after article with titles like “Raiders TE Michael Mayer expects to have a big role in Chip Kelly’s offense.”, “Don’t write off Raiders TE Michael Mayer yet” and “Raiders Eyeing Increased Role for TE Michael Mayer?” and, of course, he’s in the best shape of his life.

The Raiders already used the most 12-personnel of any team last season at 37.8%. It is very rare for a team to exceed 40% of 12 personnel snaps. While that’s within the realm of possibility, if Mayer is going to see any more playing time this season relative to the end of last season, it would need to come at the expense of Bowers in 11 personnel.

The first preseason game

The Raiders had one four-play drive with the starters in their first preseason game. Bowers played in one of those four snaps. A star player playing one preseason snap just to get their feet wet happens two to three times each year. Typically, when this happens, it’s the first play when that side of the ball is on the field. Bowers played on the second snap. This was notably odd, but not enough to draw any conclusions. 

The second preseason game

The Raiders had two drives with the starters in their second game. They used 11 personnel on each of their first 13 plays. Mayer played in eight of those snaps, compared to five snaps by Bowers. On early downs, Mayer had eight to two by Bowers. On third downs, Bowers played in all three. The final two plays of the second drive were goal-line snaps out of 13 personnel, while Ian Thomas joined both players.

There are several ways a team can use their lead receiving tight end in the preseason that wouldn’t be concerning. Several lead tight ends haven’t played at all in the preseason, like David Njoku for the Cleveland Browns or Mark Andrews for the Baltimore Ravens. Others have played sparingly with the starters. Travis Kelce played a three-play drive with Patrick Mahomes in the first preseason game. Trey McBride played every snap of the first drive of the first preseason game and the first snap of the second drive. He didn’t play every snap with the starters, but playing several snaps and then an early exit is normal.

There can be times when a team uses a tight end in an every-down capacity to get them more experience at their weaknesses. We see this extensively with rookie tight ends later in games, and often with running backs.

Most teams will only use one tight end in 11 personnel early in preseason games. One of the main exceptions is a longer drive, where a team will typically start rotating out skill players on longer drives in both the preseason and regular season. Also, a case like McBride’s second drive is an exception, where they sub out a star player from the game earlier than other players. The rest of the situations are either cases where we expect a rotation, or there is a competition.

The Chicago Bears and New York Jets used multiple tight ends in 11 personnel, in part because they have rookies fighting for playing time. The Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks used two tight ends because they have a run blocking tight end in Adam Trautman, Drew Sample, Will Dissly and Eric Saubert, and a receiving tight end in Evan Engram, Tanner Hudson (Mike Gesicki when healthy), Tyler Conklin and A.J. Barner. 

There are also plenty of times when a receiver makes a catch and then rotates out for the next play. This could explain why Bowers left the game after the first play after making a highlight-worthy catch. However, that doesn’t explain all of the other times he left the game.

This was a clear rotation, as Bowers started, and they went to Mayer, back to Bowers, back to Mayer and back to Bowers all on the same drive. On the second drive, it went from Mayer to Bowers to Mayer to Bowers to Mayer to all three Raiders tight ends. The reason teams use this kind of rotation in the preseason is that they plan on using that rotation in the regular season.

What we can expect in season

The thought of Chip Kelly rotating their tight ends more than the Raiders did last season turned from a worst-case scenario to a distinct possibility. The question becomes, how big a change can we expect?

Bowers played less than 50% of Las Vegas’ offensive snaps with the starters in the preseason, but that won’t be the case in the season. The Raiders have not used any 12 personnel with the starters in the preseason. We should expect them to either lead the league in 12 personnel usage or be near the league lead. That will help the playing time of both tight ends. Bowers was also the clear leader in snaps in 11 personnel throughout the 2024 regular season and preseason this year, and there is no current reason to expect that to change. This leaves his usage at 11 personnel on early downs.

He played 49% of the snaps over the first three weeks last season, 72% when Mayer was gone, 79% once Mayer returned, and 27% over three drives this preseason. In Ertz’s best year under Chip Kelly, he played 61%, and in his worst, he was at 23%. Any of those is a possibility. 

I had been estimating it would be closer to 70% before this preseason, accounting for a little bit of a drop relative to the end of last season, given Kelly’s history and the hype around Mayer. Now that we’ve seen it in action in the preseason, my best estimate is that it will be around 60%, which is somewhere in between where he started last season and where he ended and around where Ertz was at his peak with Kelly. However, it may be 23% like in the preseason. They may want Bowers on the field even more, and it’s 80%-plus. It can also change throughout the season depending on how things are going, but taking into account the likelihoods of the various possibilities, I’m now settling around 60%.

If we assume a 60% rate, that would be roughly 19 fewer routes for him this season,  and at his 0.44 fantasy points per route, that would be a decrease in 0.49 fantasy points per game. Last season, 0.3 points per game was the difference between TE1 and TE3. In this case, that’s enough to move Bowers below McBride and Kittle in my rankings, but still far ahead of all other tight ends. There has been little reason to change opinions on McBride, and the longer the 49ers’ starting wide receivers are out with no update, the better Kittle’s potential looks.

This change is amplified in my rankings because my rankings also take into account where you should be picking players. I no longer believe you should be considering Bowers in the second round when you can pick McBride or Kittle in the third round. I still think it’s important to land a top-three tight end, given the landscape at the position relative to other positions. This has moved McBride and Kittle up to ensure that you land a top tight end. This is a relatively small change in projected performance, but such changes often lead to significant shifts in the rankings, as the gap between closely ranked players is typically small.

This news was originally published on this post .

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