The Edmonton Oilers have been blessed with two franchise talents playing at elite levels for a decade. As Connor McDavid (who turns 29 in January) and Leon Draisaitl (who will be 30 in October) get older, it’s worth asking the question: Which of the two will be more productive in their 30s?
Tale of the tape: 20s
| Player | Reg Season | Playoffs | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1.52 |
1.56 |
1.52 |
|
|
1.26 |
1.47 |
1.28 |
Data via HockeyDB
Through the 2024-25 season, both men have posted exceptional numbers that compare to all-time best offence. Draisaitl’s comparables (in points per game, position and roster slot) through age 29 include brilliant names like Peter Forsberg and Nathan MacKinnon.
The only names above McDavid in points per game are Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux and a bunch of old-timey guys like Newsy Lalonde and Cy Denneny, who were skating around on bone skates 100 years ago.
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Finding a true comparable is no easy chore, and that alone informs us about these two players. The fewer truly comparable players, the more unique and elite the player in question.
McDavid’s potential future
Finding a comparable for McDavid is impossible, as his combination of speed, skill and offensive production are historically unique. He is one of one. If we use names from the past, we’re left with shy numbers (Gilbert Perreault) or mind-blowing numbers from the highest-scoring era in history (Gretzky and Lemieux).
The only other consistent Art Ross winner in the McDavid era is Nikita Kucherov, himself an outstanding offensive player for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He is not similar in style to McDavid, but the output has been good enough to win three scoring championships during McDavid’s time in the league. Kucherov, 32, is a few years further down the aging curve and that gives us an indication of what might be in the future for McDavid.
| Age | McDavid | Kucherov |
|---|---|---|
|
Age 24 |
1.88 |
1.25 |
|
Age 25 |
1.54 |
1.56 |
|
Age 26 |
1.86 |
1.25 |
|
Age 27 |
1.73 |
DNP |
|
Age 28 |
1.49 |
1.47 |
|
Age 29 |
1.38 |
|
|
Age 30 |
1.78 |
|
|
Age 31 |
1.55 |
Data via HockeyDB
McDavid’s offensive talent is superior to Kucherov during the seasons when both men played in the league, but the winger still posted outstanding totals during these seasons.
The most important item in this exercise is the exceptional offensive performance by Kucherov after age 27. Elite players enjoy a higher trajectory than mere mortals, and the career bell curve often shows a slower fade than most NHL players. Kucherov is showing that kind of career strength, and there’s every chance McDavid reaches or exceeds his levels.
Draisaitl’s closest contemporary
There’s a tendency to undervalue bigger forwards as they age, but the productivity levels of quality scorers with size has been strong over many decades. Phil Esposito was an elite scorer 55 years ago, and he was highly productive (34-44-78 in 80 games) at age 37. Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings scored 67 points in 81 games last year at age 37.
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That said, Esposito and Kopitar played very different styles of hockey. Esposito’s career ended less than one year after his age-37 campaign but this is a provably different era. By the time Draisaitl approaches that age, it’s anyone’s guess how much the game will have changed offensively.
What we can track is Draisaitl’s offensive output over the past four seasons in comparison to MacKinnon, who was born about two months before Edmonton’s big centre. Both men show consistency despite the NHL’s shifting sands in calling penalties that create power plays. Both Draisaitl and MacKinnon have elite teammates, and that can only help each man sustain current offensive levels. Both men are also speedsters, with NHL Edge placing Draisaitl’s straight speed in the 92nd percentile (and 94th in the playoffs) and MacKinnon’s in the 98th percentile.
| Age | Draisaitl | MacKinnon |
|---|---|---|
|
26 |
1.38 |
1.35 |
|
27 |
1.6 |
1.56 |
|
28 |
1.31 |
1.71 |
|
29 |
1.49 |
1.47 |
Data via HockeyDB
The MacKinnon comparison is less than ideal as a projection exercise, but there are strong indicators both men will be among the NHL’s best for several seasons to come. Foot speed, conditioning and quality of linemates likely guarantee more elite seasons for Draisaitl.
Who will be better?
McDavid arrived in the NHL labeled as the next generational player and has delivered a decade of breathtaking hockey. His incredible skills are on display from October to June every year. Any reduction in performance can be explained through injuries and a league-wide reduction in power-play opportunities. The Oilers are a better team than in his early years, and the organization has strong wingers for the top lines. The Oilers captain is in an ideal situation, and should be elite offensively for the next five or six seasons. That will most likely be followed by a long and productive coda that takes him to his late 30s. Based on his ridiculous speed and hand-eye coordination, it’s possible he plays to age 40 and beyond.
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The numbers suggest McDavid will be the more productive player, but the fact Draisaitl is realistically in the conversation is a credit to the big man’s determination and hard work. When he arrived in pro hockey, there were concerns about foot speed and endurance, and little mention of his now all-world shot and release. Draisaitl is more than the sum of his parts coming out of junior.
His progression and sustained performance at the highest levels can be partially credited to McDavid. Like Gretzky during his early years with the Oilers, McDavid’s presence and outrageous skills allowed talented teammates to improve just by playing with (and practicing against) the best player on the planet.
Just as Gretzky inspired Mark Messier, Jari Kurri, Glenn Anderson and Paul Coffey, McDavid’s talent elevated the team’s best young talent. Draisaitl was the first example, and Evan Bouchard the latest.
Draisaitl’s career has flown far higher than anyone expected (except then-GM Craig MacTavish, who was lavish in his praise on draft day) and he should deliver strong offensive seasons through the end of the decade. After that, Draisaitl is likely to have enough speed and two-way acumen to play in the top six for several more years.
McDavid is inevitable. His scoring rates are consistently in the top two or three among NHL scorers every season; he is the owner of five Art Ross trophies as leading scorer in the NHL, easily the most of his generation.
The class of the next decade starts with McDavid. The numbers suggest he will ease into his 30s with remarkable grace. The great news is that Draisaitl won’t be far behind.
(Photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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