NBA summer predictions: Projecting the West’s best teams and LeBron James’ future with the Lakers

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With the NBA’s new schedule out, and training camps just weeks away, it’s time to look ahead to the 2025-26 season. What does the future hold for the Western Conference? Our writers take an early stab at predicting how the standings will play out. (Check out our East predictions, too.)

Which West team will make the biggest leap in the standings?

Dan Devine: The Spurs, but almost by default. The second through eighth seeds in the West were separated by four wins last season, with 48 Ws representing the low end. Nos. 9 through 12 were separated by four wins, too. That kind of congestion makes it tough to envision most of the teams in the conference taking too huge a jump, so give me San Antonio — 34 wins with Victor Wembanyama missing 36 games and De’Aaron Fox playing just 578 minutes in silver and black — to climb the standings with better health, better depth and another year of seasoning.

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Ben Rohrbach: The Spurs. Assuming Wembanyama remains healthy, he will be the best defensive player in the league, and on offense he will be set up by a trio of guards — Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle — who are explosive in their own right. They have added some veteran depth around Wembanyama, and they still have much of their existing core, including Devin Vassell. It is a team primed to make a leap from outside the play-in tournament into the hunt for a guaranteed playoff seed.

Vincent Goodwill: The easy answer is the Spurs, almost because everyone else in the West is bunched together. We are assuming a full season of Victor Wembanyama and, if that happens, one season closer to him being fully actualized. More playmakers around him to make the game easier, and one can expect his first of many DPOYs. Going from 34 wins to at least 43-44 isn’t unreasonable.

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Tom Haberstroh: The Spurs. It’s hard to pick any of the West teams that made the playoffs last season since almost all of them were basically 50-win outfits. Of the teams that were in the bottom half, the Spurs have the highest upside with Fox and Wembanyama healthy. I think the public is underestimating the potential for Wemby to establish himself as the NBA’s best player by the end of the season.

Which West team will make the biggest drop in the standings?

Haberstroh: The Lakers. From a standings standpoint, I don’t see how the Lakers stay at a No. 3 seed again. I’m a believer in Skinny Luka, but if LeBron James is at all checked out, there’s not nearly enough depth on this roster to sustain a level required to claim first-round home-court advantage. I fear the talent drop-off after Luka Dončić, James and Austin Reaves will doom them this season.

Devine: This sucks, but … the Kings. I’m just bracing for the worst in Sacramento, where Fox is gone, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are hosting a revival of the wildly underwhelming-in-the-worse-conference Bulls, Domantas Sabonis exited the season hoping for a point guard, and Scott Perry responded with Dennis Schröder and (maybe?) Russell Westbrook. Maybe Doug Christie’s got the goods to turn all of this into a team that doesn’t find itself drowning well below .500 in the West. But maybe, before too long, last season’s 40-42 mark feels like the start of another disastrously steep descent.

Rohrbach: The Lakers. Listen: LeBron James will turn 41 years old this season, and he does not seem happy about his current status within the organization, or at least that is what his last public statement suggested. That has a chance to disrupt the team’s chemistry throughout the season. Even if it does not, the Lakers face real defensive issues as they try to build lineups around James, Dončić and Reaves. The addition of Deandre Ayton at the center position does little to assuage concern.

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Goodwill: This is no indictment, but what if it’s the Thunder? For the same reasons so many other teams in the West are bunched, what happens if the Thunder slide to an unfathomable 60 wins just from being a champion and taking everyone’s best shot? It wouldn’t be a mark of decline; remember, the Warriors of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant went from 67 wins to 58 in a year, just because even dynastic defending is still damn hard.

Who will finish with the top six seeds in the West?

Goodwill: (1) Thunder, (2) Nuggets, (3) Rockets, (4) Warriors, (5) Timberwolves, (6) Clippers

The Thunder are still built to be a regular-season juggernaut with youth and the like. Cameron Johnson over Michael Porter Jr. already looks to be an upgrade, but could we be giving the Nuggets too much assumed love when hardly anyone in today’s NBA stays atop or near it for too long? Denver and Houston could flip-flop, as could the Timberwolves and Warriors in the 4-5 spots. A full “best of the rest of” Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler could have them right around 50, but you can’t assume health — a big reason why the graybeards in Los Angeles barely escape the play-in.

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Haberstroh: (1) Thunder, (2) Rockets, (3) Nuggets, (4) Clippers, (5) Warriors, (6) Timberwolves

The West is going to be a bloodbath, but I have the most confidence in these teams locking in slots. I’m sincerely hoping we get Lakers-Mavs in a win-or-go-home play-in tournament game. Make it happen, basketball gods.

Devine: (1) Thunder, (2) Nuggets, (3) Timberwolves, (4) Rockets, (5) Warriors, (6) Clippers

Even if another 68-win campaign seems like a lot to expect, the champs take the top spot until proven otherwise. I loved the Nuggets’ offseason, and feel plenty confident betting on Nikola Jokić to get them to 50-plus wins; I’m pricing in a slight adjustment period, though, for Houston after the addition of Kevin Durant, who brings both titanic scoring talent and, seemingly, a fairly particular emotional weather system with him everywhere he goes.

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Maybe I’m overly bullish on Minnesota, given the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the big bets that team president Tim Connelly has made on youngsters like Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon and Jaylen Clark to back-fill the rotation, but head coach Chris Finch is as good as it gets at maximizing his roster around supernova Anthony Edwards. I think what Golden State found after the Jimmy Butler trade was real, and I think the Clippers’ reloaded depth is real … and, evidently, I think they’re more real than the Lakers’ bet that Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia will fix a defense that gave up 121.6 points per 100 possessions — a league-worst-caliber mark — when Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves shared the floor.

Rohrbach: (1) Thunder, (2) Nuggets, (3) Rockets, (4) Timberwolves, (5) Warriors, (6) Clippers

Oklahoma City is a juggernaut. Denver and Houston made moves to firmly position themselves as Nos. 2 and 3 in the West. Minnesota and Anthony Edwards are still lurking. And I trust the veteran stewardship of Golden State and the L.A. Clippers more than I do the defense of the Lakers or the youth of some other challengers, including the Spurs and Grizzlies. However you order them, there are only six slots for twice as many competitors.

What’s your boldest summer prediction involving the West?

Rohrbach: Go big or go home: LeBron James will not be on the Lakers at the end of the season. It made sense for the Lakers to trade James from the moment they traded for Dončić. Paying a 40-year-old max money is a hindrance to building a contender around a 26-year-old perennial MVP candidate. It just is. Who knows how the Lakers find a partner to match salaries for James, but they would be wise to acquire whatever they can for one of the game’s all-time greats before he could leave them in 2026 free agency.

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Goodwill: The Sacramento Kings won’t be as bad as everyone thinks. With that roster being log-jammed, would a contender or wanna-be contender out East try to get Malik Monk or even DeMar DeRozan to solidify themselves in this Boston-Indiana sabbatical year? And maybe the Kings find themselves in a dogfight with the Lakers for one of the play-in spots. Bold, I know.

Haberstroh: LeBron waives his no-trade clause and OK’s a trade to the Cavs. He’s coming home — again. It won’t be easy, but if the Cavs get off to a slow start, Darius Garland’s contract could be large enough to grease the wheels in a three- or four-team trade.

Devine: Apparently, it’s that the Lakers will be in the play-in tournament, Skinny Luka and all. I know. I’m just as surprised as you are!

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