Fantasy Football: 5 sleepers to target in drafts

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• Darnell Mooney reaches new highs with the Atlanta Falcons: After a strong start and rough finish with the Chicago Bears, Mooney revitalized his career as the Falcons’ second receiving option.
• J.J. McCarthy is set up for success: The Vikings coaching staff, skill players led byJustin Jefferson and the offensive line should put McCarthy in a position for success in his first season as an NFL starter.
• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 16 minutes

Each season, most of the players who lead teams to the fantasy playoffs are those selected early in the draft. However, there are always a few who dominate despite being drafted much later. For example, Brock Bowers last season and Raheem Mostert the year before went from late-round draft picks to fantasy superstars.

We’re identifying five players who are being drafted from the 11th to 14th rounds and could end up becoming weekly must-start options.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Thursday, August 21

WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: 12.03)

Darnell Mooney was a free agent in the 2024 offseason and opted to sign a three-year, $39 million contract ($26 million guaranteed) with the Atlanta Falcons. Mooney was the X receiver in the Falcons’ offense. His target rate shot back up despite being the No. 2 option behind Drake London. His yards per game matched his best season with Chicago, and while his receptions per game were a little down, he set a career-high in receiving touchdowns with five.

He was a classic up-and-down third wide receiver option in fantasy leagues. He had seven games with 80 or more receiving yards, and his five touchdowns occurred during those seven games. However, he was held to three receptions for less than 40 yards in six of his games. Typically, some receivers tend to put up bigger numbers in losses than wins because their team needs to pass more often, but Mooney’s good games generally occurred in the Falcons‘ high-scoring, close wins, while his bad games were generally their low-scoring, close losses.

Mooney’s role in the Falcons’ offense should be very similar to last season. The Falcons retained their wide receiver room from last season, adding only Jamal Agnew, who missed the entire 2022 season and primarily serves as a returner, and undrafted rookies. They similarly kept the top of their running back and tight end depth chart the same.

Mooney will be in Zac Robinson’s offense for a second-straight season. His offense heavily resembles the one the Los Angeles Rams run, using three-receiver sets at a high rate while also throwing to wide receivers a lot. This helps Mooney see a high volume of targets.

By far, the biggest change for the Falcons offense is the change at quarterback, with Michael Penix Jr. as the new starter. Penix started the last three games of last season. Mooney gained 82 yards on five receptions in the first game with Penix, injured his shoulder in the second game and missed the third game. While Penix zeroed in on London for most of those three weeks, this change should be good for Mooney, on paper. Penix had a much higher rate of throwing deep passes and was accurate on a higher rate of his deep throws. Mooney caught 14 passes on deep attempts last season, tied for the third-highest rate. The top two players in deep receptions switched teams. There is a chance Mooney could lead the league in deep targets if he gains more chemistry with Penix.

Mooney had the 38th-most fantasy points per game. Most teams can have two fantasy-relevant skill players if they have anywhere close to an average offense, and the Falcons have Bijan Robinson and London. It’s often the quality of the offense that determines whether an offense can have a third high level contributor. If Penix plays well, Mooney would likely be that third person. If Penix plays worse than Kirk Cousins last year, then the Falcons probably won’t have a third fantasy-relevant option.

Mooney has been dealing with a shoulder injury, which has kept him out of training camp. His quarterback is optimistic he will be back for Week 1, but there is a chance he will miss the start of the season. The injury has been driving down his price, which has kept him a value compared to his ADP.

Darnell Mooney was borderline WR3 last season. His new quarterback is Michael Penix Jr., who will completely determine Mooney’s fantasy success this season. If Penix plays as well as he did at the end of last season, Mooney will be a weekly fantasy starter. If not, Mooney would just be a fantasy backup, in case of injury or bye weeks.

QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 12.11)

J.J. McCarthy spent three years as a quarterback at Michigan, initially as a backup to Cade McNamara, but he beat out McNamara for the starting job in 2022. He was never a high-volume quarterback due to Michigan’s run-first offense and constantly playing with a lead, but he was great on a per-play basis. He was in the 90th percentile or better in each situation. He improved significantly from his first year as a starter to his second. His dropbacks per game decreased, but his stats still increased thanks to a much higher accuracy rate.

McCarthy similarly never ran the ball too often himself, but he had a very high rate of gaining at least 15 yards or a first down. His speed and athleticism are both above average for an NFL quarterback.

His success at Michigan led the Minnesota Vikings to select McCarthy with the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr. but just before Bo Nix. The Vikings had moved on from Kirk Cousins at quarterback and signed Sam Darnold, who was initially the starter, but the general assumption was that McCarthy would take over either before Week 1 or not long after. However, McCarthy tore his meniscus. He had surgery to repair it and missed his entire rookie year.

While Darnold played well for the Vikings, Minnesota opted not to re-sign him and stick with McCarthy as its starter for the 2025 season. From all reports, McCarthy is looking healthy and should be fully ready to go for the season.

McCarthy joins the Minnesota Vikings offense led by Kevin O’Connell. His offenses have been great for quarterbacks. The Vikings typically run an average-to-high number of plays and are consistently passing the ball at a high rate. Sam Darnold was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season, Kirk Cousins was in 2022, and in 2023, he was top 10 in points per game. In 2023, after Cousins’ injury, Dobbs was a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of four games he played 100% of his team’s offensive snaps, while Nick Mullens was a top-14 fantasy quarterback when he played 100% of the snaps. Both Dobbs and Mullens had weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback.

McCarthy will be surrounded by a strong receiving group in Minnesota, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at wide receiver, T.J. Hockenson at tight end and Aaron Jones Sr. at running back. The Jefferson and Hockenson duo has been around for multiple seasons and is part of the reason the Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks always perform better in fantasy than they do in real-life quarterback rankings. Even if McCarthy struggles like most quarterbacks do in their first year, the supporting cast and coaching staff should be enough to make McCarthy a top-24 fantasy quarterback. There is a chance McCarthy plays better than past Vikings quarterbacks, in which he could be a top-eight option.

The Vikings had an average offensive line in pass protection last season, but there is reason to believe they will be much better this season. Brian O’Neill is the only returning full-time starter, and he was one of the best pass-protecting right tackles last season. Christian Darrisaw had emerged as one of the best young left tackles in the league but missed half the year due to injury. The interior of the line wasn’t great, leading the Vikings to add Donovan Jackson in the first round of the draft in addition to free agents Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from the Indianapolis Colts. All of them should be at least minor upgrades over the 2024 starters. 

Every quarterback who is in their first year as a starter with minimal rushing upside is a risk for fantasy football, but the coaching staff and surrounding cast in Minnesota put J.J. McCarthy in a better position to succeed than nearly all other first-year starting quarterbacks of recent seasons. McCarthy should already be considered a starter in superflex leagues and is a great high-upside option as a backup in single-quarterback leagues.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (ADP: 19.08)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt spent 2019-2022 as a running back for Alabama State, playing a significant role in 2021 and 2022 with a steadily improving grade each season. He transferred to New Mexico in 2023 and significantly improved in both the running game and passing game, averaging a first down and breaking long runs at a ridiculously high rate, albeit against a lower level of competition than most running backs from the 2025 draft class. He was primarily used as a runner with New Mexico and was very rarely used as a receiver. When he was, he earned a decent grade.

He transferred to Arizona in 2024 and played one game, but an eligibility issue arose, which made him no longer eligible. He looked great on a relatively small sample, albeit against his former team, New Mexico. He played in the Shrine Bowl, gaining 97 yards on 11 carries and two touchdowns.

Croskey-Merritt impressed at the combine, finishing in the 80th percentile or better in the 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, vertical jump and broad jump. While his combine results were great, his PFF tracking data suggests a below-average speed compared to other running backs at the top of the draft class. However, he was faster than Cam Skattebo, Jordan James and Tahj Brooks. 

Croskey-Merritt was selected by the Washington Commanders, who had a crowded backfield last season with Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr. The Commanders have used one clear early-down back and one clear receiving back in their games. Robinson has been the primary early-down back, and Ekeler has been the primary receiving back. This initially made it seem like Croskey-Merritt’s path to playing time would be very difficult.

However, he was already playing ahead of both McNichols and Rodriguez in the Commanders’ first preseason game. Robinson and Ekeler had the game off, but Croskey-Merritt served as the primary early-down back while McNichols was the receiving back. Rodriguez didn’t play until much later in the game, suggesting he was a clear fifth on the depth chart.

This made it seem like Croskey-Merritt would be the clear handcuff if Robinson were to get injured. Robinson has missed time every season, so it seemed likely that Croskey-Merritt would be the primary rusher for Washington at some point this season. However, Jordan Schultz of Fox Sports has reported that the Commanders have been shopping Robinson.

This suggests Washington is comfortable with Croskey-Merritt being their primary early-down running back. Even if Robinson isn’t traded, they will want their best runner on the field, and it seems like they believe that is Croskey-Merritt.

Croskey-Merritt will play in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, where his running backs have often been fantasy starters when healthy. He’s had an every-down back at times but has also had an early-down back with a passing-down back. Given that Croskey-Merritt wasn’t used on third downs in their first preseason game and wasn’t even used very often at New Mexico, it seems very likely his role will only be as an early-down back. Kinsbury’s offenses have been balanced, producing a low rate of throwing to running backs. Deebo Samuel‘s presence at wide receiver will likely keep the target rate to running backs low.

Jayden Daniels is a quarterback who can run, which could also potentially limit the running backs. The Commanders didn’t necessarily use him on the one-yard line like other running quarterbacks, but that could change with Croskey-Merritt. Brian Robinson was noticeably bigger than Daniels, but Croskey-Merritt is slightly smaller.

The Commanders made changes to the offensive line in 2024, which didn’t work out as well as expected. The three interior linemen all graded worse than at earlier points in their careers, despite being at an age where they should be around their prime. Brandon Coleman played fine for a third-round tackle for a rookie. The Commanders replaced their weakest link on the line with Laremy Tunsil, who is known for being an excellent pass protector, but he’s also been an adequate run blocker. The line should be improved over what it was last season, but the question is by how much.

Croskey-Merritt is about to fly up draft boards faster than most sites have their ADPs updated. This will especially be true if the Commanders find a trade partner for Robinson. He is worthy of being one of the top 32 running backs drafted, but you ideally won’t have to draft him that high.

WR Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos (ADP: 13.12)

Marvin Mims Jr. started last season as a non-factor, playing even less than the previous season. He caught 11 passes for 69 yards over the first 10 weeks. In Week 11, Mims started seeing a much higher target rate. He gained at least 40 receiving yards in five of his last seven games and caught six touchdowns in that time. He had two games near the end of the season with a 46% snap rate in addition to a 69% snap rate in their playoff game.

Mims was 23rd in PPR points per game during the seven-game stretch (15.5). He was the clear second option in the offense despite having the fourth-most routes in the wide receiver room. He posted an elite 89.7 receiving grade with a target on 30.4% of his routes, leading to 4.25 yards per route run. After being a deep threat earlier in his career, his average depth of target fell to 4.2 yards.

The Broncos utilized a significant wide receiver rotation last season. Courtland Sutton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey often played on early downs, while Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Devaughn Vele played in three-receiver sets, and Marvin Mims Jr. mixed in more and more frequently in every situation as last season went on. The Broncos no longer have Humphrey, but they spent a third-round pick on Pat Bryant and added veteran Trent Sherfield Sr.

Mims’s usage in the first preseason game gave a lot of reason for optimism in an increased role this season. In 12 personnel, the Broncos consistently used Sutton and Mims, except for one play where Franklin took Mims’ spot. In 11 personnel, both Sutton and Mims played 11 of a possible 13 snaps. The other snaps were split between Vele and Franklin. Bryant’s two snaps with the starters were in place of Sutton.

Mims consistently lined up on the outside, while Vele and Franklin took the slot snaps. Mims has 2.57 career yards per route run from the slot compared to 1.57 out wide, so this was somewhat concerning. However, the increase in playing time compared to last season could make Mims a weekly fantasy starter.

The fact that Bryant only played in Sutton’s place with the starters and consistently played the X receiver role with the backups suggests he might not play much this season, except for when Sutton needs a break. Sherfield didn’t play a single offensive snap until late in the second quarter, which is also a good sign for the top four Broncos wide receivers on the depth chart.

Mims will be in his third season with Sean Payton as his head coach. Payton’s most successful receivers have been the bigger receivers of Marques Colston and Michael Thomas, but Payton has had other similar undersized receivers during his time with the New Orleans Saints. Most notably, Brandin Cooks had a similar size and speed to Mims. Cooks had a similar average depth of target in his rookie season to Mims’ last season before becoming a more complete receiver. Cooks was WR13 in 2015 and WR10 in 2016. Payton has called Mims an elite player with the ball in his hands and has raved about his confidence.

While Brandin Cooks became a top receiver with Drew Brees throwing to him, Mims will continue catching passes from Bo Nix, who played reasonably well for a rookie last season, finishing with a high accuracy rate. His rate of throwing to wide receivers was very high, and his first read rate was low, which is generally good for a low average depth of target player. Mims should do just fine with Nix at quarterback, but there is a chance Nix makes some strides in his second season, in which case Mims’ ceiling could be raised even higher.

Mims is just a late-round dart throw, but one worth taking. Either he will have a high snap rate early in the season, similar to late last season and the playoffs, in which case he has a solid chance of being a fantasy starter, or he won’t have enough snaps, which means you can drop him early in the season.

RB Braelon Allen, New York Jets (ADP: 16.02)

Allen joined the Jets as a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He took over for New York’s primary backup to Breece Hall in 2023, Dalvin Cook, whom the Jets didn’t end up re-signing. Hall was dealing with a quadriceps injury early in the 2024 campaign, allowing Allen to log seven carries for 33 yards and a touchdown in Week 2 and 11 carries for 55 yards in Week 3.

His playing time fluctuated throughout the year, between two to seven carries in most weeks. Allen started in Week 14 when Hall was out due to a knee injury. He played 54.4% of New York’s offensive snaps in that game, while his high in other weeks was 36.5%. He ran 11 times for 43 yards and caught four passes for 38 yards, while fifth-round rookie Isaiah Davis was also given an opportunity to shine.

Allen averaged a low 3.6 yards per carry, but he graded well thanks to his excellent play in short-yardage situations. He ran the ball 16 times when the Jets needed 2 yards or less for a first down, and he converted 14 of them. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry on those runs, while the league average was 3.2. His 90.0 PFF rushing grade on such plays was the best among running backs. 

The Jets didn’t make any changes to their backfield for 2025, as Hall and Davis were Allen’s primary sources of competition. The team did add quarterback Justin Fields, who will be running the ball a lot more than Aaron Rodgers. This could also include short-yardage situations. The Jets voted to keep the tush push, so there is a chance Fields, in particular, could take those 1-yard carries, even though Allen was very successful on them.

Allen is one of the biggest running backs in the league, measuring 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds. Most running backs of that size aren’t used significantly in passing situations. Derrick Henry, Najee Harris, Gus Edwards, D’Onta Foreman and James Conner have rarely been used in passing situations. Henry and Conner have been able to turn into consistent fantasy starters despite this, but Allen would need to at least double his rushing attempts per game to reach their level.

The Jets will feature a new coaching staff in 2025, headlined by head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, both of whom were hired from the Detroit Lions. In recent years, the Lions have used either Jamaal Williams or David Montgomery on early downs, and D’Andre Swift orJahmyr Gibbs on passing downs. Allen could be well-suited for that early-down role, as he’s bigger than Williams and Montgomery. The two were used to convert first downs, wear down defenses and, most importantly, score touchdowns.

The running back in this role has finished in the top 20 in fantasy points per game each of the past three seasons. A few things need to go right for Allen to reach that top-20 range. Engstrand needs to use the same running back rotation, and Fields can’t be used as the runner in short-yardage situations. The first preseason game was a step in the right direction. While Hall got the start, Allen and Hall rotated in and out throughout the first drive and Davis played on third downs.

The Jets also need their offensive line to play close to the Lions’ level. Detroit has ranked among the top 10 in PFF run-blocking grade each of the past three seasons, while the Jets placed 12th last season. The Jets moved on from veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses and replaced them with two first-round picks in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou. The entire line has a very high positively graded play rate, which is generally good for breaking long runs. The unit has mixed results when it comes to negatively blocked runs.

However, Allen stood out in how well he played on non-perfectly blocked runs, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Montgomery also logged 3.4 yards per carry on non-perfectly blocked runs, but he was better on the positively blocked runs. If Allen can avoid more tackles once the line gives him those clean blocks, it could make a big difference to his fantasy production.

The goal is for Allen to be the next David Montgomery. The coaching staff needs to use him in that role, the offense needs to play well enough for Allen to score enough points, and Justin Fields can’t be used on the tush push. While that is a lot, there is similarly a lot for any other late-round running back, and this one doesn’t require an injury to a starter.

This news was originally published on this post .