Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Risk, reward for WR-WR-WR start

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• Bank on consistency and safety with this approach: The first three rounds contain a bevy of wide receiver options who can set the foundation for a championship-winning roster.

Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

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I recently dove into the RB-RB-RB draft strategy, looking at the high-upside potential of a running back-heavy build. Now, we’re turning our attention to a wide receiver-heavy build.

The WR-WR-WR approach offers a bit more safety, in that there are a lot more options to choose from early on, with all being drafted highly for good reason. There may not be top-five upside for all of these wide receivers, especially those facing strong target competition, but hitting on high-end consistency from multiple players can help make up for that.

While having a set strategy heading into a draft can help a player feel prepared, it’s important to be ready to pivot from the original game plan if things don’t go as planned or if significant value falls to you.

PPR Scoring Top Finishers by Position since 2015

0.5 PPR Scoring Top Finishers by Position since 2015

Non-PPR Scoring Top Finishers by Position since 2015

As highlighted in the charts above, the wide receiver position doesn’t quite have the overall finish upside as running backs. But in full-PPR formats, the potential to finish among the top 25 becomes much greater, while a top-10 finish is almost as likely. There are plenty of options to choose from through the first three rounds of drafts, but finding the right ones isn’t always easy.

Like the running back position, this wide receiver-heavy approach carries some risk. Not only are you passing on the top-five, or potentially top-three, upside of the running back position, but also because of the number of options available, it’s possible for your leaguemate(s) to devise a similar strategy and have as much or more success in doing so.

That’s why we’re identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the wide receivers in these early rounds.

This article will focus on PPR scoring since that is where the ADP is pulled from on Yahoo!. 

Draft strategy context:

• League size: 12 teams
• Scoring settings are full PPR 
• ADP referenced is from Yahoo!

WR Archetypes to Target

The chart below highlights the key metrics that the top-five PPR wide receiver finishers over the past five seasons hit. This will help us identify the criteria needed for each of the backs going in Rounds 2 and 3 to pay off.

Key metrics from past fantasy WRs who finished inside the top five since 2020:

Round 1

Seven wide receivers typically go in the first round of drafts this season, giving fantasy managers plenty of opportunities to get their wide receiver-heavy approach off to a strong start. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua are strong options who check all the right boxes for the high-end fantasy production we’ll be looking for, as highlighted below. 

Heading into the second and third rounds, we can look to identify which wide receivers meet most of the criteria to optimize the WR-WR-WR draft strategy and make it worth passing on other key positions along the way.

No matter which slot you’re drafting from, there are strong options available at each point in the first round for anyone wanting to attack the wide receiver position early and often.

Round 2

Malik Nabers, New York Giants (Yahoo! ADP: 13.0)

Nabers Through 14 Games in 2024

• Nabers burst onto the scene in his rookie year, serving as the focal point of a Giants offense that leaned on him heavily from the start. 
• He finished second in the NFL with 165 targets across just 15 games and led all rookie wide receivers with an 87.1 PFF receiving grade in 2024. 
• Nabers recorded five top-10 weekly finishes and ended the season as the PPR WR6.
• He ranked second among 130 qualifying wide receivers in target rate, trailing only Puka Nacua (37.0%). 
• His usage as a primary read was equally notable, as he finished second in the NFL with 133 first-read targets. 
• Given New York’s quiet offseason in terms of pass-catching additions, Nabers is poised to remain one of the league’s most heavily targeted players in 2025.
• Nabers was a clear red-zone focal point for the Giants, but the offense’s overall inefficiency limited his opportunities. That dynamic may not shift dramatically in 2025, though the addition of Russell Wilson provides some hope.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (Yahoo! ADP: 16.1)

Thomas Through 16 Games in 2024

• Thomas operated as his team’s primary target in 2024, posting a 24.7% target rate — a top-15 mark among qualifying wide receivers.
• His heavy involvement stemmed partly from necessity, as fellow starters Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis each played 10 games or fewer. 
• But Thomas made the most of that opportunity, quickly establishing himself as a high-end receiving threat in his rookie season.
• Thomas was also a focal point in the red zone, though Jacksonville ranked just 26th in red-zone plays last season. 
• Still, his reliability in tight spaces helped him deliver eight red-zone touchdowns — the most by a rookie since Odell Beckham Jr.’s breakout in 2014, further solidifying his standing as a premier scoring threat.
• Thomas also impressed in the efficiency department, leading all rookies in yards per route run last season. His mark was the second highest by a qualifying rookie wide receiver over the past three years, trailing only Puka Nacua.

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (Yahoo! ADP: 19.7)

London Through 16 Games in 2024

• London broke out in his third NFL season, cracking the top 12 in fantasy scoring among wide receivers after falling short of the top 24 in his first two years. 
• The Falcons’ offense took a clear step forward under new head coach Raheem Morris, and London was a primary beneficiary. 
• With continuity in scheme and personnel, expectations are high for the former No. 8 overall pick heading into 2025.
• London emerged as the clear focal point of Atlanta’s passing attack in 2024, finishing with a top-eight target rate among wide receivers and logging the fifth-most total targets (149) across all positions. 
• He also ranked among the league leaders in first-read target volume, with 135 of his looks coming as his quarterback’s primary read, a clear indication that he’s become one of the most trusted and prioritized wideouts in the NFL.
• London was the most-targeted wide receiver in the red zone in 2024 (minimum 25 routes), posting an elite 35.9% target rate inside the 20. 
• That heavy usage translated into a career-high nine receiving touchdowns, seven of which came from red-zone looks.
• London’s role in high-leverage situations is a key driver of his fantasy upside, especially in an offense expected to be one of the more efficient units in 2025.

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (Yahoo! ADP: 21.6)

Brown Through 13 Games in 2024

• Brown has consistently performed at an elite level, finishing no worse than WR15 in each of the past four seasons. 
• While 2024 marked his lowest year-end finish during that span, he missed three games early in the season and still ranked as WR12 in points per game. 
• His efficiency and target share keep him firmly in the high-end WR1 conversation.
• A virtual lock for 100-plus targets each season, Brown remains one of the league’s most efficient receivers and once again delivered on that volume with elite production this past year.
• He has surpassed 1,000 yards in five of his six seasons and has recorded a 90.0-plus PFF receiving grade and at least 2.50 yards per route run in three seasons.
• Brown has twice posted double-digit touchdown seasons in his career but has finished with seven scores in each of the past two years.
• With the Eagles boasting one of the league’s deepest groups of offensive weapons, red-zone opportunities tend to be more distributed, so the sheer number of mouths to feed in Philadelphia is the main concern with his fantasy ceiling in 2025.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (Yahoo! ADP: 23.8)

McConkey Through 16 Games in 2024

• McConkey operated as the Chargers’ top receiving option as a rookie and finished the 2024 campaign as the PPR WR12. 
• Of course, expectations are going to be high coming off a season like that, which is why he’s being taken in the second round as the WR11 by ADP. 
• The Chargers added Keenan Allen recently to serve as strong target competition, as well as rookie Tre Harris in Round 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
• However, if an aging Allen isn’t as reliable as he once was, Harris doesn’t hit the ground running as a rookie and the Chargers remain just above average in terms of run rate, then any fantasy concerns about McConkey should dissolve. 
• He can rack up targets at an elite rate in what should be a strong offense in 2025.

Round 3

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (Yahoo! ADP: 29.9)

Higgins Through 11 Games in 2024

• Higgins played just 11 games in 2024, but thanks to his talent and the high-end Bengals offense, he delivered 19.5 PPR points per game when he was out there, which was good for WR3 overall pace.
• Higgins did this with the overall fantasy WR1, Ja’Marr Chase, also delivering at an elite pace. With Joe Burrow at quarterback, both players are capable of thriving for fantasy purposes.
• Higgins will have to stay healthy to justify his Round 3 price tag, though his upside is clear.
• The Bengals’ offense should once again be a top-tier unit in 2025 with Higgins serving as one of the top contributors.
• Higgins saw a 25.3% red-zone target rate in 2024, which ranked 21st among 118 qualifying wide receivers. He delivered seven of his 10 receiving touchdowns in those situations.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (Yahoo! ADP: 33.5)

Smith-Njigba Through 16 Games in 2024

• Smith-Njigba broke out in 2024 with a top-10 fantasy finish at wide receiver. 
• After serving as the third option in Seattle’s passing game as a rookie, he leapfrogged both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in Year 2 — ultimately rendering both expendable, as neither remains on the roster heading into 2025.
• Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in all major receiving categories in 2024, finishing with 133 targets — a top-12 mark among wide receivers — and a 21.3% target rate. 
• While his rate didn’t place him among the elite at the position, it was still impressive when considering D.K. Metcalf maintained a solid 19.7% target share of his own. 
• Smith-Njigba emerged as Seattle’s top red-zone target in 2024, leading the team in red-zone target rate and ranking 18th among wide receivers leaguewide in that category. Despite the Seahawks placing just 30th in red-zone plays last season, Smith-Njigba made the most of his opportunities, scoring five of his six touchdowns from inside the 20.
• With a new quarterback and restructured target competition heading into 2025, Smith-Njigba could see his target volume swing in either direction.
• His consistency was a major asset for fantasy managers. He finished no worse than WR36 in 12 of 16 games during the fantasy season. That level of steady production kept him in starting lineups all year.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (Yahoo! ADP: 34.9)

Hill Through 16 Games in 2024

• Hill fell short of expectations in 2024 after being drafted as a top-three wide receiver last offseason, following back-to-back WR2 finishes in 2022 and 2023. 
• Inconsistent quarterback play and recovery from offseason wrist surgery may have contributed to his dip in production.
• Hill saw 121 targets in 2024, his fewest since joining the Dolphins and his lowest mark overall since 2019, when he missed multiple games due to injury.
• Even entering his 10th NFL season at age 31 and coming off a down year, Hill remains a near lock for an elite target share.
• There is risk in investing in Hill on the chance that his 2024 season is the new norm for his production and efficiency, but if the Dolphins’ offense can bounce back at all in 2025, there should still be enough looks available for high-upside production.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Yahoo! ADP: 36.8)

Evans Through 13 Games in 2024

• Evans is coming off his 11th straight year of delivering at least 1,000 receiving yards, and as a result, he’s never finished lower than the PPR WR22 in any of his NFL campaigns.
• Evans is, and has been, one of the most consistent fantasy wide receivers and is showing no signs of slowing down after delivering the second-best PFF receiving grade (88.1) of his career in 2024.
• While Evans may not have overall WR1 potential anymore at this point in his career, he’s one of the safest bets to make for our WR3 in this WR-heavy strategy.
• With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Evans has delivered double-digit touchdowns in back-to-back seasons as one of the more prolific end-zone threats at his position.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (Yahoo! ADP: 38.1)

Wilson Through 13 Games in 2024

• Wilson finished the 2024 season as the PPR WR9 while competing with Davante Adams for targets from Week 7 until the end of the year.
• In the six weeks before Adams’ arrival, Wilson was the PPR WR7 with a 31% target rate.
• Although Wilson already ranked third at his position in targets last season (152), there is more meat on the bone for him to improve upon his WR9 finish and enter the upper echelon of fantasy wide receivers in 2025.
• Even with Justin Fields at quarterback, who has supported a top-10 fantasy wide receiver as recently as 2023 in Chicago with DJ Moore (WR6), the sheer volume of targets in Wilson’s direction should be enough for elite fantasy production.
• If Fields surprises and improves as a passer with Wilson as his clear WR1, there’s potential for Wilson to move into first-round fantasy consideration once again, like he was heading into 2024.

Navigating the Rest of the Draft

Continuing to use Yahoo!’s average draft position data, we can get a better idea of how these strategies play out using the early, middle and late picks.

PICKS 1-4 BUILD

PICKS 5-8 BUILD

PICKS 9-12 BUILD

This news was originally published on this post .