Fantasy baseball waiver wire: Brandon Woodruff’s workload raises rest-of-season concerns, and more

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I didn’t expect Brandon Woodruff to be particularly useful for Fantasy this season, and now I’m faced with an unexpected question: What if I was right? 

That looked extremely wrong through Woodruff’s first six starts of the season, when he had a 2.29 ERA and 45 strikeouts to just three walks in 35.1 innings. Despite his velocity being down nearly 3 mph following shoulder surgery, Woodruff looked as good as ever, generating his typical massive whiff rates with his fastball-heavy approach and generating weak contact like he was still in his prime. Woodruff didn’t just look like he hadn’t just missed a year-plus with a severe injury – he looked better than ever.

Three starts later, and things don’t look nearly as rosy. His first start wasn’t bad, necessarily, but it was a little worrisome – Woodruff tossed four shutout innings on Aug. 13 against the Pirates, but was limited to just 65 pitches while pitching on the usual four days’ rest for the first time. He got an extra day of rest for his next start (and would continue to do so for the rest of the season, according to the team), but it wasn’t enough to get him right, as he gave up three runs over 4.1 innings against the Cubs, and then he was even worse Monday against the Diamondbacks, who jumped on him for five runs over 5.2 innings of work.

Now, it is very much worth noting that Woodruff looked like he was turning it around through the first five innings Monday, as he had allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings to open the start. But the Diamondbacks jumped all over him in the sixth, to the tune of a hit-by-pitch and four hits, including a three-run homer to Lourdes Gurriel that capped the scoring. 

And in that context, Woodruff’s start doesn’t look so bad. Five dominant innings, with all of the damage coming in the sixth? You can work with that. But it does raise some questions. We already know the Brewers are going to have to be careful with Woodruff’s workload, giving him five full days off between starts. In this one, he was pitching on five days of rest and still ran out of steam, undoing five excellent innings with one terrible partial one at the end of his start. 

Which could happen to anyone, and we wouldn’t necessarily note it. But with the trend Woodruff is now on, and with the obvious concerns about his ability to hold up to a normal starter’s workload, it raises serious questions about just how useful he will be the rest of the way. My guess is he’ll be pretty useful – after all, he struck out eight and walked just one Monday, with a whopping 21 swinging strikes on 50 swings, a pretty excellent return, despite the ugly, crooked number in the “ER” column. But I do think Woodruff will probably be something less than the dominant force he looked like he was going to be after his first handful of starts. You have to question his ability to pitch deep enough into games consistently enough over the final month to truly be dominant, especially when his usage likely makes two-start weeks extremely hard to come by. 

Woodruff looked like he was going to carry you to a championship a few weeks ago. And he still might be there when you raise the trophy. He just may not be the reason it happens. 

Here’s what else you need to know about from Monday’s action around MLB: 

Tuesday’s top waiver-wire targets

Emmet Sheehan, SP, Dodgers (44%) – Okay, well that was fun. Sheehan has shown tantalizing glimpses of his potential, but too infrequently to justify really getting fully on board with him as a Fantasy option. And then he goes out and absolutely dominates Monday against the Reds and completely changes the narrative. He struck out 10 over seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball, and has suddenly taken himself from “yeah, he’s interesting, but …” discussions to “Yeah, he’s a must-roster pitcher.” Is that an overreaction? In May, maybe. On the verge of September? I think you just have to leap at anything actionable, and this tangible sign of how good he can be at his best is certainly actionable, with 19 swinging strikes on 96 pitches in the career-best performance. Does this mean I trust Sheehan now? Oh, heavens no – but I’m definitely starting him next week against the Pirates. 

Jonah Tong, SP, Mets (26%) – The Mets are reportedly considering calling up another of their top prospects, and as exciting as Nolan McLean is right now, Tong might be just as exciting, if not even a little more. Tong was recently promoted to Triple-A, where he has 17 strikeouts in 11.2 innings over two starts, and he’s been that dominant all season long: Pitching primarily at Double-A, he has a 40.5% strikeout rate and 1.43 ERA in 113.2 innings of work. According to Eno Sarris, Tong has the best Stuff+ of any pitcher still in Triple-A, and that stuff might play up even more with a delivery that very obviously draws comparisons to Tim Lincecum. The Mets might decide to ride with a six-man rotation if they turn to Tong, which would limit the overall upside. But he has the look of an absolutely dominant starter, and it could be worth stashing him ahead of any promotion just in case. 

Ian Seymour, SP, Rays (13%) – Seeing that Seymour would move into the rotation for the Rays was pretty interesting, given his strong performances at both Triple-A and out of the bullpen for the Rays. But it was more of a “let’s see what he can do” situation for his first MLB start. And what he did was very impressive, as he limited the Guardians to one hit over five shutout innings with eight strikeouts and one walk. His fastball still sat around 92 mph as a starter and was an effective pitch (four whiffs on 11 swings, plus a 45% CSW), but it was the changeup that continued to impress, as he had five of his 10 swinging strikes overall with it. Seymour looked good in a relief role, and then he looked good in his first start. That doesn’t mean he’ll be a superstar or anything, but he looked like a pretty useful pitcher here, especially in H2H points leagues as a SPaRP. 

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (43%) – Cowser never really got a chance this season, as he suffered a fractured thumb in the season’s earliest days and had to play through the lingering effects of that (plus an August concussion that cost him over a week). But he’s starting to show signs of life lately, with three homers in his past four games after he went deep as part of a three-hit game Monday. Is that enough to overcome his struggles overall? At least in five-outfielder leagues, I’m willing to add the 2024 Rookie of the Year runner-up, just in case. 

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins (23%) – We know who Wallner is: A one-dimensional slugger who just kills you in batting average. That reputation is well established, and it makes it kind of hard to ever get too excited about his Fantasy prospects. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be an excellent hot-hand play, and he’s at least that right now with a 1.011 OPS in the month of August, including three homers in his past two games. You need to know whether your team can handle the hit on average, but if you can, Wallner is a very valuable source of power. 

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