Five NFL player props I like: Take the under on Travis Kelce’s receiving yards

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The NFL season is nearing, and it seems as though we’re hearing that every player’s in the greatest shape of his life.

While that may be true, football season is a long, exacting exercise in survival, and so even though we’re pumped that Week 1 is right around the corner, when it comes to season-long player props, someone has to be the grumpy uncle — the family member willing to pour cold water on the idea that everyone’s going over their prescribed total.

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Here are five season-long NFL player props that I like at BetMGM, including four under wagers:

San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy: Over/Under 3,850.5 passing yards

Not every under comes from a grumpy place.

Last season, Purdy played in 15 games and finished with 3,864 passing yards, so the assumption would be that playing in all 17 games would lead to Purdy clearing the prescribed number with ease.

However, the 49ers were 6-11 — the type of record that suggests that they were trailing in many games, and forced to pass to keep up. Sure enough, looking at quarter splits, Purdy had the second-most attempts in the fourth quarter despite having the worst rating there.

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One season earlier, Purdy’s fourth quarter rating was his best, while throwing just 91 of his 444 total passes in the final frame. Not coincidentally, that 49ers team went 12-4.

With arguably the easiest schedule in the league and a 10.5-win projection, the 49ers should be able to turn over the fourth quarter to a healthy Christian McCaffrey more often. That’s a viable option compared to a group of receivers that is absent Deebo Samuel and won’t be seeing Brandon Aiyuk back until midway through the season.

Bet: Under 3,850.5 passing yards

Atlanta Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.: O/U 3,424.5 passing yards

Have we heard the last from Kirk Cousins?

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In a perfect world, the Falcons would immediately reap the benefits of using their 2024 first-round draft pick on Penix Jr., and the few games he played at the end of the season would translate to a big season.

Penix Jr. completed just 58% of his passes during his first look last season, and while we can expect improvement in that regard, the Falcons’ offense is at its best when it plays through Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier — to the tune of 441 total carries last season.

Part of the reason why Penix Jr. was something of a risk in getting drafted so early, was a relatively extensive injury history going back to his college career. Between the possibility of missing more than a game or two due to injury, a run-heavy offense and the looming presence of a veteran option if this doesn’t go smoothly, there’s a number of reasons why Penix Jr. might not clear his passing total.

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Bet: Under 3,424.5 passing yards

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: O/U 675.5 receiving yards

“I love Taylor Swift.”

Hopefully, whether actually true or not, that sentence shows up in search, shielding me from the Swifties’ wrath when I suggest that this summer’s “New Heights” podcast heard ‘round the world didn’t sound like one hosted by a current NFL player whose main goal was to turn back the clock toward his prime. Not to mention the couple is now engaged.

There’s no reason for Travis Kelce to voluntarily stop playing if the Kansas City Chiefs are still willing to pay him and it’s still super fun, but after seven straight 1,000-yard seasons, Kelce hasn’t just gone down to 65.6 yards per game in 2023 and 51.4 in 2024, but last season was his first averaging less than 10 yards per reception (8.5).

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A line of 675.5 yards assumes 15 games played and 45 yards per game. Given where Kelce’s numbers have been trending, along with the emergence of Noah Gray (10.9 yards per reception), plus a receiver trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worth and Hollywood Brown (when at full strength), and these numbers seem closer to a best-case scenario for what feels like the 35-year-old’s final season.

Bet: Under 675.5 receiving yards

Detroit Lions RB David Montgomery: O/U 9.5 rushing TDs

It’s Year 3 of “Sonic and Knuckles” in Detroit, but it just so happens that “Sonic” is a 23-year-old in the conversation for being the most talented running back in the game. Where does that leave David “Knuckles” Montgomery?

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After opening last season with six touchdowns in the first five games, Montgomery had six in the next 10 games (and had less than 10 carries in five of them). Meanwhile, after three touchdowns in the first five games, Jahmyr Gibbs had 15 the rest of the season, including the Lions’ lone playoff game.

“Sonic” should take another step forward, away from a timeshare with Montgomery, and new Lions’ offensive coordinator John Morton would be best served by having Gibbs on the field any time the Lions are anywhere near the goal line.

Bet: Under 9.5 rushing TDs

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith: O/U 850.5 receiving yards

Just to prove I’m not entirely full of humbug as we approach the Christmas Eve of the NFL season, let’s include an over.

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The irony is that Smith’s receiving yardage total might be depressed for fear that he could miss some time due to injury, because he did so last season — missing three games due to injury, as well as a meaningless Week 18.

Even if Smith only plays 13 games again, we’ll need him to average 65.5 yards per game to get over this number, which is just over a 2% increase over 64.1 last season.

Is the fact that new Eagles’ offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, has been their passing game coordinator for the last four seasons enough to think there might be 2% more throwing from Jalen Hurts in his sixth season?

Even if the offense is status quo, Smith (who surpassed this total in his first three seasons) can take some more of the receiving load from A.J. Brown, especially since Brown’s just as likely to miss time with a nagging injury, despite a yardage total lined 300 yards higher.

Bet: Over 850.5 receiving yards

You can find more betting content and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

This news was originally published on this post .