- Dallas will struggle on the ground against Philly: The Eagles ranked second in both PFF run-defense grade (76.9) and EPA allowed per rush last season, making them one of the stingiest front sevens in the league.
- D’Andre Swift will flourish as a receiver out of the backfield in Chicago: Last season, the Lions ranked top five in running back targets (109) and led the league in receiving yards (945) and yards per route run (1.89) from the position. That usage mirrors what we saw from D’Andre Swift under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in Detroit during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
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These are some of the best player prop bets to target in Week 1 for the 2025 NFL season.
RB Javonte Williams: Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
- Under 28.5 rushing yards (-105)
After finishing 31st in PFF team rushing grade (60.7) and last in EPA per rush last season, the Cowboys completely overhauled their backfield. Javonte Williams is expected to start despite not taking a preseason snap, with Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue also in line for touches in what could be a three-man committee.
Whether those changes lead to improvement is unclear. Williams earned just a 61.7 PFF grade in 2024 and hasn’t shown much recent upside, leaving his role atop the depth chart far from secure. With a tough Week 1 matchup against an Eagles defense that ranked second in run-defense grade and EPA allowed per rush, it’s a difficult spot for Dallas to be figuring things out.
Bettors considering rushing props or early-season projections for this backfield can take advantage of the latest sports betting promos to add value to an otherwise uncertain situation.
To make matters worse, the Cowboys’ offensive line enters the season with major questions around health and continuity. Three of the unit’s most important pieces — Tyler Smith, Tyler Guyton and rookie Tyler Booker — have yet to play a single snap together. Smith and Guyton have both missed time in camp due to injuries, with Guyton only recently returning to practice for the first time since July. While both are expected to suit up in Week 1, their effectiveness — particularly without in-game reps together — remains a major concern.
Booker, meanwhile, may take time to settle in as a run blocker. He was drafted primarily for his pass protection skills—his 88.2 PFF pass-blocking grade stood out in college—while his 63.9 run-blocking grade highlights an area still in development.
Balancing health and cohesion is always tricky in the preseason, but with so many new faces along the line, Dallas may have leaned too far away from the latter. That could leave them facing an uphill battle in the run game come Week 1.
D’Andre Swift: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115)
With Ben Johnson now calling the shots in Chicago, D’Andre Swift has a chance to reignite the early-career hype that once surrounded him—particularly in the passing game. Johnson has a strong track record of involving running backs through the air, including Swift himself during their time together in Detroit.
Last season, the Lions ranked top five in running back targets (109) and led all teams in both receiving yards (945) and yards per route run (1.89) from the position. That usage mirrors what we saw from Swift under Johnson in 2021 and 2022, when he ranked top five among running backs in targets (139) and receiving yards (841).
Swift has also already begun building chemistry with Caleb Williams in the passing game, showing promising signs down the stretch in 2024. Over his final 10 games, Swift averaged 19.3 receiving yards per game — more than double this prop line — and cleared the mark in seven of those 10 contests.
If it wasn’t already shaping up to be the D’Andre Swift show in Chicago’s backfield, it certainly is now. Injuries have hit the Bears’ running back room hard ahead of Week 1. Rookie Kyle Monangai, Roschon Johnson (foot) and Travis Homer (calf) are all dealing with ailments, casting serious doubt on who will even be available behind Swift against the Vikings.
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