At long last, the 2025 NFL season is finally upon us, with the first of 272 regular season games kicking off Thursday night when the now Micah Parsons-less Dallas Cowboys visit the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
As always, each of the league’s 32 teams will be in action in Week 1 — which of course means millions of sports bettors will be in action, too. And those bettors will be shooting for the same goal as the teams they’re wagering on: Open the season with a “W”.
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With that as the backdrop, here are 10 NFL betting trends to keep in mind as you plan your Week 1 wagering attack.
1. Is the “Super Bowl Hangover” real?
For years, many bettors have shied away from backing a defending Super Bowl champion in Week 1, worried that the pregame ring and banner-raising ceremony that honors the past will distract players from focusing on the present.
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Reality? Going back to the start of the 2001 season, defending Super Bowl champs are 19-5 straight-up and 14-7-3 against the spread in Week 1 of the ensuing campaign (per Sports Odds History).
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This year, the Eagles are a hefty favorite to follow up their Super Bowl 59 title with a victory over Dallas. In fact, Philadelphia (-8 vs. Cowboys at BetMGM) is tied with Denver for the biggest chalk on the Week 1 betting board.
How did the Eagles handle pregame distractions in Week 1 of the 2018 season after upsetting the Patriots in Super Bowl 52 seven months earlier? An 18-12 victory over Atlanta as a 1-point home favorite.
2. Riding the hot hand
Speaking of the Eagles, they’ve gotten out of the starting blocks quickly in recent years, regardless of how they finished the previous season.
Since 2008, Philadelphia is 14-3 in openers (11-6 ATS), including an ongoing four-game season-opening winning streak (3-1 ATS).
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Green Bay, which hosts Detroit in Week 1, has won 17 of its last 18 home openers (14-4 ATS), including the last 11 in a row.
Another strong Week 1 NFL betting trend involves — of all teams — the Raiders. The Silver and Black have covered the Week 1 point spread eight times in the last 12 years (winning six of the last nine openers outright). Las Vegas kicks off 2025 as a consensus 2.5-point underdog at New England.
Additional teams carrying strong Week 1 spread-covering trends into the 2025 season: Miami Dolphins (9-3 ATS), Lions (4-0 ATS) and Arizona Cardinals (5-1 ATS). However, while Miami won nine of those 12 games outright, Detroit split its last four openers SU and Arizona has gone 2-3-1.
3. Sputtering out of the gate
On the flip side of the NFL betting trends sheet, it might be wise to think twice — if not three times — before plunking down Week 1 cash on the Giants (6-point underdog at Washington) or Colts (1.5-point favorite vs. Miami).
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New York is 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in season openers since 2011, while Indy is 1-13-1 SU and 2-12-1 ATS in Week 1 dating back to 2010.
Other squads that haven’t been particularly bettor friendly to start the season in recent years: the Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans (all 2-7 SU and ATS the last nine years); Carolina Panthers (1-5 SU and ATS); and Cincinnati Bengals (1-4 SU and ATS).
Then there’s the oddity that is the New Orleans Saints, who carry a six-game Week 1 win streak into 2025 … yet are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 openers.
4. A “Bear-y” odd trend
Chicago kicked off the 2024 season with a 24-17 victory over Tennessee, cashing as a 4-point home favorite. With that, the Bears have now alternated SU wins and losses in their last six openers, and alternated spread covers in their last seven openers.
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This year, the Bears cap the Week 1 schedule with a Monday Night Football home game against NFC North rival Minnesota. Consensus point spread: Vikings -1.5.
5. Fading favorites
One particular NFL Week 1 betting strategy that has not paid off: Blindly laying points with favorites. While favorites have won 61.7% of season openers since 2019 (58-36-2 SU), they’ve only covered the point spread at a 44.2% clip (42-53-1 ATS).
Last year, favorites won 13 of 16 Week 1 contests, going 9-7 ATS. It was only the second time since 2019 that favorites came out ahead in Week 1 (the other instance: 9-7 ATS in 2020).
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6. Home, (not-so) sweet home
Not including a neutral-site game between Philadelphia and Green Bay in Brazil, home teams kicked off the 2024 campaign by going 10-5 SU. However, those squads barely kept their heads above water at the betting window, posting an 8-7 ATS mark.
In fact, supporting home teams in Week 1 has been a losing proposition since 2019, with hosts going 45-47-2 SU (47.9%) and 41-52-1 ATS (43.6%).
7. Doggin’ it in Week 1
Not including the Chiefs-Chargers clash on Sept. 5 in Brazil, nearly half of the home teams in Week 1 (seven of 15) are underdogs.
Last year, there were two home ’dogs in the opening week, and both lost outright (going 1-1 ATS).
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Going back to the 2016 season, home teams catching points in Week 1 are 13-29-1 on the scoreboard. Their point-spread record? Dead even at 22-22 ATS.
8. This sure is odd (and even)
A quick check of the Week 1 odds board reveals 11 games with a consensus point spread of 3 points or less.
What do recent NFL Week 1 betting trends reveal about how these short favorites have performed? Strangely, it seems to depend on if the calendar year is odd or even — at least lately.
Over the past seven seasons, favorites of 3 points or less in Week 1 are 18-7 SU and 16–8-1 ATS in even-numbered years (2018, ’20, ’22, ’24), but 6-13-1 SU and 6-14 ATS in odd-numbered years (2019, ’21, ’23).
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9. Totally Under-whelming
A year ago, nine of the NFL’s first 16 games eclipsed the total. It marked the seventh time in the last 13 years (since 2012) that Week 1 totals finished exactly 9-7 to the over.
However, you have to go back to 2011 (12-4 to the over) for the last time 10 or more Week 1 contests cleared the total.
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In one of the more profitable NFL betting trends, the under is 95-79-1 (54.6%) in the opening week dating to 2014.
10. Laying low on Sunday night
It’s the first sentence on the first page in the first chapter of the sports betting handbook: There is no such thing as a sure thing.
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Indeed, even the most robust NFL betting trends have an expiration date. Of course, you’d have a hard time convincing those who recently have been playing the under in the opening Sunday Night Football game of the season.
Fact: Seven of the last nine SNF openers have fallen short of the closing total, including the last three.
Fact: Not one of those nine contests ended with more than 48 combined points.
Fact: The consensus total for the Week 1 SNF clash between the Ravens and Bills in Buffalo is … 51.5.
This news was originally published on this post .
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