- George Kittle is an all-time great: Kittle has both the best receiving grade and best run blocking grade among tight ends over the course of his career.
- Kellen Moore’s offense could benefit Chris Olave: Moore’s offense has put an emphasis on slot receivers, which translates to fantasy points. Olave could be the primary slot receiver for the New Orleans Saints this season.
It’s officially “my guy” season at PFF — time to plant flags on the players we believe in more than consensus. For this list, I stuck to the players I’ve been most excited to land during fantasy drafts this year. Average draft positions are based on a consensus from ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo!, reflecting where each player is typically selected in a 12-team redraft league.
Last updated: Tuesday, Sept. 2
TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 3.10)
George Kittle has put together a Hall of Fame career over the last eight years with the San Francisco 49ers. After an okay rookie season, he’s ranked in the top six in fantasy points per game in each of the last seven seasons. His 94.3 receiving grade over the past seven years is the best among all tight ends, barely beating outTravis Kelce, although Kelce has run nearly 2000 more routes. His 84.5 run-blocking grade is also the best for tight ends during that time.
Over the past three seasons, he ranks first in yards per route run against zone coverage, single coverage, double coverage, when he’s open and when he’s in the slot. In all other situations, he’s not far from first. While Kittle posted his best receiving grade in 2019, his receiving grade has stayed above 85.0 each year.
One of the big problems throughout Kittle’s career has been injuries. He’s missed at least one game every year in the last six seasons, but he’s also played at least 14 games in seven of eight seasons of his career. Kittle finished first in fantasy points per game last year, but since he missed two games, he only finished third in total fantasy points.
Kittle’s great pass and run blocking have led him to an every-down role throughout his career, and that won’t change. San Francisco added Luke Farrell, who is primarily a run-blocking tight end. This will allow San Francisco to use a high rate of 12 personnel.
One major factor for Kittle this season will be how well the wide receivers play, which could impact Kittle’s target rate. In 2021 and 2022, Kittle had to compete with bothBrandon Aiyuk andDeebo Samuel Sr. for targets, which put a little bit of a ceiling on Kittle’s target rate. In 2023, this was also true, butBrock Purdy opted to throw the ball to those three receivers more than past quarterbacks, whileJauan Jennings and every other wide receiver and tight end lower on the depth chart were thrown to less. Kittle’s targets increased further in 2024 while Aiyuk missed most of the season. Samuel also missed some time and played injured, while Jennings emerged.
This season, Samuel is no longer on the roster. Aiyuk might not be ready to start the season. Jennings will be one of the top receivers, while former first-round pickRicky Pearsall will potentially emerge. If everything goes well for the wide receivers, Kittle could see his target rate drop. However, if Aiyuk struggles to get back to 100% and Pearsall doesn’t improve, we could see Kittle’s targets increase even further.
While Kyle Shanahan has likely helped Kittle succeed and helped make the 49ers offense, it may have put a ceiling on Kittle’s fantasy production. The 49ers have generally been run-first teams. That has changed a little recently, which is partially due toChristian McCaffrey’s ability to catch passes. This year, Kittle ranked 15th in total routes run for a tight end despite playing over 90% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps most weeks. His best finish is eighth in routes run.
Brock Purdy is a big part of Kittle’s recent improvements. Before, Jimmy Garoppolo was his quarterback, leading to relatively few deep and intermediate targets. From 2019-2022, he was held to 300-500 receiving yards in those situations. With Purdy, he’s gained over 600 receiving yards from deep and intermediate targets each of the last two seasons. The only other tight ends with 600 or more yards on deep and intermediate passes in a season over the last eight years areTravis Kelce in most years from 2017-2022,Mark Andrews in 2019 and 2021, Rob Gronkowski in 2017 andKyle Pitts in 2021.
On short passes, Kittle caught 46 passes for 478 yards. Six other tight ends had more fantasy production on short passes last season. The short production is more sustainable each season, so if Kittle loses some of his deeper targets, he could see a swift drop in fantasy production. However, it also means there is a little more room for growth in the target rate on those shorter passes. Kittle will be 32 years old by the start of the season. He’s shown no signs of slowing down yet, but it will happen at some point. That could mean more short targets and fewer deep targets, which means less fantasy production.
Kittle is a clear top-three fantasy tight end based on his consistent high level of play. He’s not too far away from his ceiling, and his age mixed with how he’s achieved his fantasy success could lead to a notable drop in fantasy points if things aren’t going right. This makes Kittle the clear third option of the top-three tight ends. Positional scarcity will still push Kittle up draft boards onceBrock Bowers andTrey McBride are taken.
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 7.08)
Olave was the 11th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft for a Saints team with Michael Thomas returning from injury and free agent addition Jarvis Landry as starters. Olave started in Week 2, Thomas was out by Week 4, and Landry missed a lot of the season due to injury. This made Olave the clear top receiving option on the team, finishing with 1,042 receiving yards while catching passes from Andy Dalton, which was double the next closest receiver on the team. He accomplished this despite missing two games, and one miss was due to having the second concussion of his career, which followed one when he was at Ohio State.
Olave’s numbers were remarkably similar in 2023 despite a change in quarterbacks to Derek Carr. His routes per game increased, but his target rate decreased. This left his efficiency down a little bit, but the increase in routes per game led to more total targets, more receptions, more receiving yards, one more touchdown and a move up to 19th in fantasy points per game. Olave missed one game due to an ankle injury, but he also suffered the third concussion of his career and was able to return the following game.
The Saints won the first two games of 2024 with a combined score of 91-29. In Week 1, five other players scored touchdowns while Olave played the role of a decoy. In Week 2, he caught four passes for 81 yards, but his playing time and routes run were relatively low due to the blowout. Olave was fine over the next three weeks with 16 receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown. He suffered a concussion after two snaps in Week 6, forcing him to miss Week 7. He returned in Week 8, totaling eight receptions for 107 yards. He suffered another concussion after eight snaps in 2024, and the Saints shut Olave down for the rest of the season.
All Olave per-game stats should be taken with a grain of salt, considering he left with a concussion after one reception in 25% of his games, and another 25% were blowouts in the Saints’ favor. In his four normal games, he averaged 14.7 PPR points per game, which would have been a career-high. One big concern is whether he suffers another concussion. That would be his sixth documented case, which could be a season-ender or career-ender.
His 25.4% target rate over the last three seasons is eighth-best among all wide receivers, while his 2.21 yards per route run is ninth-best.
The Saints brought in Kellen Moore as their new head coach. His offenses tend to throw to wide receivers at high rates despite having some great receiving running backs, so that’s also good news for the wide receivers and bad news forAlvin Kamara.
Over the last three seasons, Moore’s primary slot receiver has averaged between 15.3 and 21.5 PPR points per game. His six primary outside receivers in three receiver sets have largely been unrosterable in fantasy, but the major exception wasA.J. Brown last season. Shaheed is a better second option than his other options with the Los Angeles Chargers or Dallas Cowboys in 2022, so ideally, both will be valuable. The question is who will play in the slot.
Both Olave and Shaheed have similar measurables to each other. The Saints’ wide receivers are generally shorter, smaller and faster than the wide receivers Moore is used to, outside ofDeVonta Smith last season. Both receivers have plenty of experience in the slot in recent seasons. Shaheed has 2.27 yards per route run when lined up out wide compared to 1.49 in the slot, while Olave has 2.23 in the slot compared to 2.16 out wide. This could make Olave the favorite for slot work.
This played out in the final game of the preseason, which was the only preseason game where Olave, Shaheed and Brandin Cooks all played. Olave consistently lined up in the slot in three-receiver sets, which is a very positive sign that Olave will see more snaps there this season.
Olave has the talent to be a top-15 fantasy option, as new head coach Kellen Moore could help him thrive. However, the quarterback situation is far from ideal, and Olave’s concussion history is a serious concern, making him more likely to suffer a season-ending injury than most players.
RB Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 10.02)
Mason was an undrafted rookie who signed with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022. By midseason, the 49ers completely changed their backfield, trading for Christian McCaffrey and elevating Mason to the primary backup. Mason did an excellent job on his limited snaps, earning a 90.6 grade and averaging 6.0 yards per carry. In 2023, Mason fell to third on the depth chart with Mitchell’s return. Mitchell missed some time, allowing Mason to be a primary backup, and he played at a high level, like in 2022. There was talk heading into 2024 that Mason would replace Mitchell as the primary backup to McCaffrey. Mitchell ended up suffering a season-ending injury, allowing Mason to be the primary backup. McCaffrey was dealing with an Achilles sprain to start the season, elevating Mason to the top back on the depth chart.
Mason was a top-six fantasy running back over the first five weeks of the season. He fumbled three times over the season, which lowered his PFF rushing grade, and there was some expected regression in his rushing efficiency over a larger sample size, but for the most part, he continues his electric play. He broke long runs at an elite rate, ran for at least 70 rushing yards in six of his first seven games and averaged at least 4.1 yards per carry each week. He didn’t develop much as a receiver, finishing with one or two receptions each week.
Unfortunately, Mason suffered a shoulder injury in Week 6 and re-injured it in Week 7. McCaffrey was able to return for a four-week stretch, bringing Mason to a backup role. It’s worth noting that any of his per-game metrics from 2024 include him being a backup for nearly half of his games. McCaffrey suffered a season-ending injury in Week 13, leading Mason to run 13 times for 78 yards, but then Mason was dealt a season-ending high-ankle sprain.
Mason was traded to the Minnesota Vikings this offseason, offering a chance to escape Christian McCaffrey’s shadow and earn meaningful snaps. He joins a backfield led by Aaron Jones Sr., who has spent much of his career in a two-back committee. Now 30, Jones has battled a slew of injuries—hamstring, MCL, hip, rib, and quad—over the past two seasons.
Mason has operated primarily as an early-down back in his career, while Jones brings more versatility, including 408 receiving yards last year—his highest mark since 2019. While Jones still flashes in the passing game, his rushing efficiency has declined in recent years, falling closer to league average.
A likely early-down and goal-line role for Mason would give him fantasy upside, especially in touchdown-heavy formats. If Jones stays healthy, Mason should still handle a solid share of the rushing workload. If Jones misses time, Mason could slide into a featured role similar to his stint as San Francisco’s starter—minus third downs, which would likely go to C.J. Ham in pass protection. Ty Chandler profiles as Mason’s backup, but the Vikings would likely ride Mason as far as he can go in the event of an injury.
It remains to be determined exactly how snaps will be distributed between Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. Still, there is a chance Mason is the better fantasy back if both are healthy, and he is likely to be a fantasy starter if injuries continue to disrupt Jones’ career.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.12)
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy value peaked in 2022, finishing with a career-high 25 passing touchdowns and a career-high five rushing touchdowns. This led him to finish 12th in fantasy points per game. His quality of play improved in 2023, and he dropped back to pass more often. This led to more passing yards, but he threw fewer touchdowns and ran for fewer touchdowns. This helped him finish among the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks more often but among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks less often, and ultimately decreased his fantasy value.
Lawrence’s fantasy value continued to dip in 2024. His per-game stats are somewhat deceiving, as he had a game with only 10 passing attempts, but he was held under 200 passing yards in five other games. He failed to reach 200 yards only twice in 2023. Two of these games were from a very low passing attempt total, but there was one game where he had 38 attempts and 178 yards. These games largely occurred before Brian Thomas Jr. fully broke out and while Evan Engram was injured.
Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9, which he also suffered at the end of 2023. He returned briefly in Week 13, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t return that season. Throughout Lawrence’s last three seasons, he’s been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback. His 1.8 big-time throws per game over the last two seasons are the fourth-most among quarterbacks, but he’s also had one of the highest turnover-worthy throw rates.
Lawrence is learning a new offensive system this year with Liam Coen as his new head coach. One big reason for optimism for Lawrence is how well Baker Mayfield played last season in Coen’s system. Mayfield received a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which is comparable to Lawrence in recent seasons, and Mayfield’s passing game jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy points per game jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has generally run the ball more often than Mayfield, so there is room for Lawrence’s fantasy production to be even higher.
Lawrence’s time to throw was consistently low during his time under Doug Pederson, but his average depth of target skyrocketed, leading to lower accuracy rates. We should expect his average target depth to decrease considerably. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the last three years was in the bottom quarter of the league, but he finished in the top quarter of the league on short passes. The change in offensive philosophy should be a great asset to his fantasy value.
The Jaguars have largely reworked their receiver room. Jacksonville traded up to the second overall pick for Travis Hunter and signed Dyami Brown to be their field stretcher in free agency. The Jaguars have tried several veteran wide receivers to help Lawrence, but the young duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter should be the best pair of Lawrence’s career. Jacksonville moved on from Lawrence’s safety net of Evan Engram, but Brenton Strange had a very similar receiving grade last season. Strange is another ascending player who should fill his role respectably.
Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside backup option in single quarterback leagues, and he, at best, can become your usual starter and, at worst, be an adequate fill-in during bye weeks. In superflex leagues, he is a somewhat risky second option.
This news was originally published on this post .
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