Fantasy Football Week 1 Quarterback Preview: Starts, Sits, Waivers, Numbers to know, and more

Sports

add

Changing the rankings over from a season-long view to a Week 1 view is always a bit of a shock. While many rankings appear similar, there are always some outliers based on injuries, matchups, or other unexpected factors. This week at quarterback, it is incredible how much of a difference there is. Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Jared Goff fell out of the top 12. Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Jordan Love are in. 

This massive change highlights something significant that we talk about in the summer, but matters when you are making your lineup decisions as well. The difference between QB12 and QB21 in my Week 1 projections is 0.85 Fantasy points. Even the difference between QB7 and QB12 is only 1.28 Fantasy points. One fumble could drop a guy from seventh to 20th and fumbles are about the most impossible thing to forecast. 

First, note that any small changes in who is playing, any slight shifts in the betting lines, and a major change in weather could significantly impact a quarterback’s position over the next five days. In other words, do not make your lineup decisions based on projections or rankings on Tuesday morning. Wait as long as you can and check back with us regularly. My projections will be updated on SportsLine whenever I make an update in my model. 

But back to those betting lines. A team’s implied point total at FanDuel drives my point expectation for them for the week. How many points we think a team is going to score is directly correlated with how many Fantasy points we expect them to score. So, yes, when Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars have an implied total of 25 and Dak Prescott’s Cowboys are at 20, that will make a big difference in the projections. I do have Prescott projected for 20 more passing yards, but Lawrence for 0.27 more touchdowns.

That is not to say that I think you should make your lineup decisions the same way I do. I am just thankful if my projections are a part of your process. You always find all of my updated projections over at Sportsline. 

Let’s get to the rest of the preview:

Week 1 QB Preview

• 22.5 — The Lions have an implied total of 22.5 points. They averaged more than 33 points per game last year and only had two games where they scored fewer than 23. This year may be different for Jared Goff and the offense.
• 63 — The Denver Broncos led the NFL with 63 sacks last season. I don’t really want to start Cam Ward, even as a QB2.
• 7.1 — The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up the highest net yards per attempt to QBs last year. The Panthers were second. It could be a great day through the air for both Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.
• 6.2 — Patrick Mahomes‘ 6.2 intend air yards per attempt ranked 34th out of 36 starters last year. The Chiefs say they will be more aggressive through the air, we’ll be watching closely in Week 1 for evidence of that.
• 21.1% — Caleb Williams had the third highest bad throw % at 21.1% last year. If he cleans that up the Bears offense could soar under Ben Johnson, and Williams could quickly more into the top 12.
• 4.7 — Drake Maye averaged 4.7 rush attempts per game from Week 6-17. That is great for Fantasy but there has been some talk that Josh McDaniels may pull back on the reigns.
• 242.1 — Jayden Daniels averaged mroe than 240 passing yards per game in his 18 complete games including the playoffs. Even a small boost to that could make him QB1 overall this year. That is where I have him ranked in Week 1.
• 207 — Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton combined for 207 targets last year. As of Tuesday morning we don’t expect any of them to play Week 1.
• 28.3 — Jordan Love averaged just 28.3 pass attempts per game in 2024. We are expecting that number to regress back towards the 34.1 he averaged in 2023, but not all the way.
• 0 — J.J. McCarthy isn’t a rookie, but he has never attempted a pass in the NFL. He only attempted 713 in his career at Michigan. Don’t be surprised if the Vikings are a little more run heavy early in the year.

My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You’ll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don’t live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.

This news was originally published on this post .