One of baseball’s biggest recent rivalries will be renewed on Tuesday, Sept. 2 with the New York Yankees meeting the Houston Astros to begin a three-game series. The Yankees are in position to grab a wild card spot in the AL, currently ahead of the Boston Red Sox slightly on win percentage to take the top wild card spot. The Astros are in a battle with the Mariners in the AL West, and hold a three-game lead over Seattle entering Tuesday’s contests. The Astros have beaten the Yankees in the postseason in 2017, 2019 and 2022 en route to two World Series titles.
New York will be sending Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA) to the bump in the series opener. Fried has won two of his last three starts, and was given a no decision in a 1-0 loss to the Red Sox. He’s coming off seven strong innings against the Nationals where he struck out six and allowed just one run. Houston will be rolling with Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA). The Astros had lost Valdez’s last five starts prior to the win over the Rockies, where the lefty threw seven shutout innings and struck out five.
Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for both Fried (Over +115, Under -148) and Valdez (Over -144, Under +113) at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Fried’s Over 5.5 strikeouts prop as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Valdez’s Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Tuesday’s 14-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars that return plus money. Here they are:
Joey Wentz Over 3.5 strikeouts (-126) vs. Cubs (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Wentz made 25 relief appearances during stints with the Pittsburgh Pirates and Minnesota Twins earlier this season before being claimed off waivers by Atlanta in mid-July. The 27-year-old lefty came out of the bullpen in his debut with the Braves but has made eight consecutive starts since. Including the relief outing, Wentz has registered five or more strikeouts in five of his nine games with Atlanta and is coming off a turn against the Miami Marlins in which he fanned five batters over 6 2/3 innings.
Sawyer Gipson-Long Over 3.5 strikeouts (+111) vs. Mets (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
Gipson-Long made four starts for the Tigers in his first major-league season last year and registered 26 strikeouts over 20 innings. The 27-year-old right-hander started twice for the club in June, fanning only three batters across 3 2/3 frames against the White Sox before punching out five over 5 1/3 innings versus the Twins. Gipson-Long’s chances of going Over his projected total are good, however, as the Mets have struck out at least eight times in each of their last three contests.
Luis Severino Over 3.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Severino has been fanning batters at a solid rate of late, recording at least five strikeouts in four of his last five starts. The 31-year-old Dominican righty has gone Over his projected total four times in that span, averaging six strikeouts per game. Severino has punched out 13 batters across 13 innings in his last two turns on the road, including five over six frames against the Washington Nationals last Tuesday. The Cardinals recently have had difficulty making contact, striking out 12 or more times in each of their last three games, including Monday’s series opener, so Severino should go Over with relative ease.
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