The Cy-Hawk Trophy is up for grabs in Saturday’s 72nd in-state rivalry clash between Iowa and No. 16 Iowa State. Throw conventional wisdom out the window when these teams square off; the away team is a perfect 5-0 dating back to the 2019 contest. It is also typically a safe assumption that defense will be the name of the game when the heated foes square off, as neither team has scored more than 27 points since 2017.
Iowa State took last year’s meeting in a 20-19 classic with a pair of fourth-quarter field goals. Quarterback Rocco Becht lit up the typically stout Hawkeyes defense to the tune of 272 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and with his hot start to the 2025 season, perhaps a repeat effort is in store for one of the Big 12’s most prolific passers.
The Cyclones have the larger sample size thus far given that they played in Week 0, and their 2-0 start already has them looking like a conference title contender. Iowa, meanwhile, saw Kirk Ferentz move into a tie as the Big Ten’s all-time winningest coach with last weekend’s victory over Albany, but the Hawkeyes had some rust to shake as their passing game struggled to get off the ground.
Iowa vs. Iowa State: Need to know
The Becht effect: Becht has been simply fantastic to start his fourth year at Iowa State. Save for some weather-impacted incompletions in the Ireland game in Week 0, he has lived up to the billing as a top-flight quarterback in the Big 12. Last week’s rout of South Dakota brought near perfection in the passing game as the veteran signal-caller went a sparkling 19-for-20 for 278 yards and three touchdowns, and seven days prior he showed off his clutch gene and ability to make plays on the run with a late-game rushing score.
Defensive battle likely: Points are almost always at a premium when the Cyclones and Hawkeyes do battle. The winning score has been 20 or lower all but once in the last six meetings, and neither team seems particularly ready to allow more than that this time around. Iowa State held a potent Kansas State offense to 21 in the opener, and Iowa looked like its typical self in allowing just 43 yards on the ground to Albany last week. The Hawkeyes are the more comfortable side in defensive slugfests. It’s the Ferentz way.
Cyclones to face another mobile QB: Iowa’s Mark Gronowski underwhelmed in a rough debut through the air, completing just eight of his 15 passes for 44 yards and a touchdown against Albany. His mobility followed him from the FCS level, though, as he needed just one game to display the rushing ability that made him a highly touted transfer. Iowa State already faced one of college football’s premier rushing quarterbacks this season in Kansas State’s Avery Johnson, and he had himself a solid day, even in a losing effort to the Cyclones.
Where to watch Iowa vs. Iowa State live
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6 | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Jack Trice Stadium — Ames, Iowa
TV: Fox | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction, picks
Laying a field goal in what could be another low-scoring rivalry game is frightening, especially when matchups between Iowa and Iowa State often come down to special teams. The questionable start to Gronowski’s tenure in the Hawkeyes offense is spooky, but it is not as though Iowa thrived at the quarterback spot in past Cy-Hawk wins. And if any defense can neutralize a red-hot quarterback like Becht, Phil Parker’s group is always a good pick to do so. With those factors and the five-game winning streak for road teams in this series in mind, I like Iowa against the spread and will be bracing for another slobberknocker like last year’s 20-19 Cyclones win.
SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 2 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that went 27-16 last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.
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