Game Overview
The Jets and Dolphins square off on Monday night with both teams seeking their first win of the 2025 season. Miami has had the upper hand in this AFC East rivalry in recent years, with the Dolphins holding an 8-2 straight-up record since 2020. We’ve seen a similar theme in betting markets, with Miami holding a 6-4 record against the spread over that span.
However, don’t count out this Jets team that managed to cover both games against the Dolphins last season, and now holds a 2-1 ATS record to start 2025. The Jets are slated to return Justin Fields to the lineup after missing this past week, a matchup in Tampa Bay in which the Jets nearly toppled the Bucs and managed to cover as 6.5-point dogs.
While the Dolphins stand at just 1-2 ATS this season, they’re coming off a Thursday night road matchup against the Bills that they managed to cover, thanks to a strong start before sputtering out late. The same Bills team that dominated the Jets in New York in Week 2, winning 30-10.
TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins: Under 11.5 receiving yards (-115)
After a brief stint being retired from the NFL, Darren Waller is set to make his return to the field on Monday night for the Dolphins. Spending a year away from the game feels like a lifetime. Now, Waller will hope to relive his heyday at 33 years old. With Waller coming off a hip injury, it’s unclear what role he will play in his return or what type of workload he will be shouldered with right out of the gate.
Running up against a Jets defense that has defended tight ends well to start the year doesn’t bode well for Waller’s projections heading into this one. New York has allowed just 5.2 yards per coverage target to tight ends, the seventh-fewest in the NFL.
Game Overview
The Bengals and Broncos matched up in Week 17 last season with playoff aspirations on the line. That game ended with a walk-off overtime touchdown by the Bengals, giving Cincinnati the cover as 3.5-point favorites. Fast forward to 2025, and neither team is playing up to the standard that put it in playoff contention.
Without Joe Burrow, the Bengals have floundered, losing this past week 48-10 in Minnesota in a game that was over before halftime, falling to 1-2 ATS. Quarterback isn’t Cincinnati’s only deficiency, as issues along the offensive line and throughout the defense put this team behind the eight-ball at every turn.
The Broncos maintain a solid roster, but suffer from similarly troubling quarterback play with Bo Nix struggling in year-two — posting the lowest overall PFF grade (44.6) among qualifying quarterbacks, due in part to issues with his footwork and mechanics. That’s led to poor results in betting markets, with the Broncos still yet to cover a game this season.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals: Under 54.5 rushing yards (-110)
While it’s the woes of the quarterback position that grab the headlines, this running game deserves plenty of the blame for the Bengals’ offensive struggles. It starts up front with an offensive line whose early problems take on historical significance, as their 37.4 PFF run-blocking grade ranks as the second-lowest ever recorded in the PFF era (since 2006).
With that deficiency, Chase Brown has had little opportunity to find running lanes and green grass to run into. His 2.0 yard-per-carry average ranks last in the NFL among backs with at least 10 carries this season (63 qualifying backs), as he stands as one of just two backs to have a negative mark in yards before contact per attempt (-3).
Although Denver has given up some solid rushing performances this season, the Broncos are, by and large, a strong group fitting the run. They own the 11th-best mark in rate of successful run plays allowed (26.3%) and rank eighth in EPA per rush allowed.
This news was originally published on this post .
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