The Conversation: Can the rebuilt Raptors claw their way back to the playoffs?

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Unlike actual velociraptors, which lived only in the Cretaceous period, the Toronto Raptors of recent seasons have seemed to be stuck between eras. Entering recent trade deadlines, it has not been clear whether they’d act as buyers or sellers (or both in different transactions). They’ve chased disgruntled stars and chased lottery balls. But all that is over now. The 2025-26 Raptors are not rebuilding. They are not in development mode. They want to win.

Toronto traded for Brandon Ingram and then signed him to an extension. The team signed Jakob Poeltl to an extension, too. The question is not whether or not Toronto wants to make a push for the playoffs, but whether or not this particular group of players can be more than the sum of its parts. “I think the talent level is high, but we still have to see the fit,” Raptors general manager Bobby Webster told reporters Friday. In 2024-25, Immanuel Quickley played in only 33 games, five fewer than he did in his first partial season in Toronto, and Ingram played in only 18 games, all as a member of the New Orleans Pelicans. Even though the roster looks a lot like it did in April, the product on the court will be drastically different. If the Raptors aren’t at least in the mix for a playoff spot, something has gone terribly wrong.

The State of Play

Last year: Quickley suffered a pelvic injury on opening night, then tore a ligament in his elbow two games into his return. With Scottie Barnes having hurt his eye in the fourth game of the season, the Raptors started off 2-12 and never recovered. From Jan. 13 onward, they went 22-21, with the third-best defense in the league, but many of those wins came against teams that were playing non-competitive lineups (despite Toronto doing the same). At the trade deadline, they acquired Ingram for Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk and two-second round picks and sent Davion Mitchell to the Heat for a second-round pick. There were bright spots — Barnes’ improved defense, Poeltl’s improved offense, RJ Barrett‘s assist rate, discovering Jamal Shead and Jamison Battle — but the 30-52 season neither netted them a high pick (because they had just a 31.9% chance of a top-four pick and ended up falling from seventh to ninth in the lottery) nor taught them much about their core (since Quickley, Barrett, Barnes and Poeltl played only 165 minutes together).

The offseason: The biggest thing the Raptors did was fire team president Masai Ujiri and effectively promote Webster, whose title is unchanged but is now their lead executive. Ujiri led the draft process, though, and was the one to FaceTime No. 9 pick Colin Murray-Boyles on draft night (even though he already knew he was out). As for the roster: Poeltl picked up his $19.5 million option for 2026-27 and signed a three-year, $84.1 million extension, Sandro Mamukelashvili arrived on a minimum deal and Garrett Temple returned on a minimum deal. 

Las Vegas over/under: 39.5 wins, per BetMGM

The Conversation

Raptors believer: The Raptors are going to be the surprise team in the NBA this season. It’s going to feel a lot like 2006-2007 and 2013-14, which, coincidentally, are the last two times that they replaced their head of basketball operations. They won 47 and 48 games, respectively, in those two seasons, and while I’d probably pencil this group in for 45ish, the important parallel is that this team is ready to make a big jump. Brandon Ingram is a real difference-maker, and, before he got hurt last season, he attempted a career-high 9.5 3s per 100 possessions (more than Michael Porter Jr., and Desmond Bane), a clear sign that he understood what he needed to do when playing alongside other creators. Now that he and Immanuel Quickley are healthy, I expect Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett to be much more efficient and Toronto’s offense to improve immensely. On the other end, this team is going apply tons of pressure, force tons of turnovers and generally drive other teams crazy. Collin Murray-Boyles is an absolute menace and will fit right in.

Raptors skeptic: I get the pro-Raptors case, I really do. If healthy, there are some pretty good pieces here, and maybe a couple of the young guys on the bench will pop. More importantly, it is entirely possible that about half of the teams in the East are going to be terrible, so wins won’t be that hard to come by. But I don’t understand how anybody can be confident that the plan is going to come together. Can Quickley actually stay on the floor? Is he the type of point guard who can keep Ingram, Barnes and Barrett happy? I am not sure about either of these things, and I’m not sure that the team has enough shooting or enough depth. Sure, they’ll force turnovers, but I’m more interested in whether or not they can defend without fouling and take care of the ball themselves.

Raptors believer: The spacing isn’t going to be perfect, but it’s going to be a lot better. Quickley is a legitimate pull-up threat and has gravity off the ball. Ingram is a better shooter and better passer than anyone seems to remember. With more dangerous offensive players on the floor, everybody’s spot-up looks are going to be cleaner. And you might be worried about depth, but I’m worried that they might have too many rotation-worthy players. I’m high on Sandro Mamukelashvili, especially after EuroBasket, but I hope he doesn’t block CMB’s path to playing time. Ja’Kobe Walter can help the second unit raise hell defensively, but is there even room for him if Gradey Dick and Ochai Agbaji are both coming off the bench? At first glance Jamal Shead doesn’t have much competition at backup point guard, but I bet Darko Rajakovic will play some lineups without a traditional PG to maximize switchability, particularly if Shead struggles offensively. To be clear, these are good potential problems.

Raptors skeptic: I don’t know if any of the bench players you just mentioned are rotation guys on a good team, and I don’t know that the projected starters — Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl — actually make sense together. Yeah, Rajakovic said they shared the floor in the summer, but I won’t be surprised if he finds himself selling Barrett on coming off the bench a few weeks into the season. I can see the pitch already: You can be the Canadian Manu Ginobili. It wouldn’t even be the first time Rajakovic has made the comparison. I don’t know how Barrett would react to that, though, and it’s telling that neither he nor Agbaji have signed a contract extension. We may disagree on how successful this team is likely to be, but we both know the roster will look different after the trade deadline — the Raptors are in the luxury tax, and it would be insane to finish the season that way.

Raptors believer: I wouldn’t read too much into Barrett and Agbaji having not signed extensions. The Raptors already have a lot of long-term salary commitments, and they have an abundance of young wings on the roster. Unless it’s a team-friendly deal, they might as well keep their options open. There are ways to duck the tax that do not involve moving either one, and I’m not totally sure what point you’re making with regard to the starting lineup. Rajakovic should go into the season trying to play their five best players together, but he’ll also stagger the perimeter players’ minutes. If the starting unit is clunky after a decent sample size, then sure, Barrett could go to the bench. That wouldn’t be some kind of catastrophe, though, and it wouldn’t necessarily signal that he’d have to be moved. The sixth-man role worked out pretty well for Ginobili, didn’t it?

Raptors skeptic: Ginobili was a first-ballot Hall of Famer! As a star playmaker who was willing to sacrifice his minutes and per-game stats, he was also a total outlier. I get that Barrett is left-handed and sort of shifty, but that comp is wishful thinking and it should be obvious why a potential move to the bench would be a bad sign. It should also be obvious, by the way, why the Raptors making the playoffs would be such a surprise. Their best players are injury-prone, their young players are unproven and their coaching staff is in charge of a challenging chemistry experiment. Barnes and Ingram have both been All-Stars before, and I can’t totally dismiss the possibility that they lead Toronto to 40-something wins, but you can’t dismiss the possibility that this whole thing blows up.

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