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The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL offenses while breaking down possible outcomes from each week’s offensive matchups.
Highlighted statistical variables include neutral game pass play and run play rates, success rate, expected points added (EPA) per play, shifts, motion and play-action pass play usage, offensive play volume and pace.
Neutral game run play rate and neutral game pass play rate
Offensive neutral game run and pass play percentages among NFL teams:
The Houston Texans will likely attempt to control the game with a run-heavy approach against a Baltimore Ravens offense missing quarterback Lamar Jackson (hamstring) and a defense that struggles to rush the passer, allows a league-high offensive play average, frequently surrenders explosive pass plays and ranks in the bottom third in EPA allowed per play. Baltimore’s already injury-weakened defense lost two more starters last week; one in the front-seven, plus its No. 1 cornerback. The Texans will pass efficiently when they do so.
Texans rookie running back Woody Marks broke out in Week 4, posting 14 major statistical career highs. His 76.7 PFF offense grade in Week 4 is the best among his four career games. Among 38 NFL running backs with at least eight targets, Marks’ 2.23 yards per route run (YPRR) ranks in the top five.
The New York Giants decreased their neutral game pass play percentage by 20.8% in rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s first career start last week, though Dart (10 rushing attempts, seven non-scramble rushing attempts, 54 rushing yards and one touchdown) contributed to the shift. He is not expected to miss practice after straining his left hamstring and can be started as a QB1 if active against a New Orleans Saints defense that allows the seventh-most EPA per play among NFL defenses and ranks dead last in quarterback pressure rate.
The Giants’ backfield touches remain helpfully condensed, though the receiving corps is in flux following No. 1 wide receiver Malik Nabers’ ACL tear. Giants tight end Theo Johnson tied his season-high single-game target total (five) last week. His 55.3 PFF receiving grade falls far short of Nabers’ 71.4 PFF receiving grade.
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