Padres’ season on the brink after missed chances and a familiar decision to bunt in Game 1 loss

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CHICAGO — Inside perhaps the trickiest ballpark in the big leagues, with shadows creeping toward home plate and the stakes at a season high, Jackson Merrill laid down a bunt that was emblematic of the offensive philosophy the San Diego Padres had cultivated. It was Tuesday afternoon at Wrigley Field, less than two weeks after manager Mike Shildt discussed a seemingly archaic approach that would help his team to a second consecutive postseason.

The Padres would finish the regular season near the bottom of the majors in home runs — and alone at the top with 48 sacrifice bunts. No other team recorded more than 37.

“Our players have the freedom to see the game, and we trust them to feel what’s taking place in their at-bat,” Shildt told reporters earlier this month in New York. “Jackson, for example — he hits a homer the other way, and the next day, (with runners on) first and second, he’s bunting. Well, it’s not the same pitcher that’s throwing.

“And just in general, if a hitter is taking an at-bat and he’s not as comfortable — whether it’s a left-on-left, just a tough matchup, the hitter that particular day is not feeling great … they go, ‘OK, I’m not seeing the ball really great off this particular guy, so let me figure out a way to pass the baton and do that.’ And I would say that’s probably half of our sacrifice bunts.”

Tuesday afternoon at Wrigley Field, with San Diego leading by a run and its cleanup hitter up to bat against a left-hander, Merrill provided another example. Then, it backfired.

The Padres went on to lose 3-1 to the Cubs in Game 1 of this National League Wild Card Series. To survive, they will have to achieve a first — under the postseason format that has been in place since 2022, no team that lost the opener of a best-of-three series has gone on to advance. With their season on the line, it remains to be seen if the Padres will suddenly stray from their two-year-old doctrine in Game 2.

It seems unlikely.

“That’s on my own,” Merrill said of his fourth-inning decision to bunt. “Some people can fault me for it if they want, but I don’t care. I’m trying to play baseball and just advance runners and get people in scoring position.”

Added Shildt: “We got a chance to extend the lead … and we just couldn’t. You know, we got our sac fly with two outs.”

There were other missed opportunities in the postseason opener, albeit not many. The Padres took a 1-0 lead in the second when Merrill, the standout center fielder, and shortstop Xander Bogaerts led off with consecutive doubles. In the absence of the righty-batting Ramón Laureano, lefties Ryan O’Hearn, Gavin Sheets and Jake Cronenworth proceeded to go down in order.

Two innings later, after third baseman Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk against Boyd, Merrill scanned the scoreboard and the situation. He recalled that his earlier double had left the bat at a mere 70.8 mph — and that Bogaerts had drilled his own at 109 mph into the left-center gap.

“I mean, (mine) was a bloop double,” Merrill said. “I’ll take it, obviously, and it worked for us; we scored. But if I’m on (Boyd), I’m on him. If I’m not, I’m not.”

So, Merrill successfully bunted Machado over to second base. That was before collective failure ensued: After Bogaerts reached on an infield single, two-time Gold Glove shortstop Dansby Swanson robbed O’Hearn for the second time. Sheets flied out to end the threat. It would be the last time the Padres batted with a runner in scoring position.

“You come up in two big situations with a chance to put a run on the board, less than two outs, man on third, (it is) frustrating to not get the job done there,” O’Hearn said. “I think the approach was right, what I’ve done all year. Try to stay in the middle of the field. You know, get something in the air. … Dansby made a good play. And then the second one, I thought it might drop in over him. Just didn’t get enough barrel on it.

“Yeah, it sucks.”

Dansby with a dazzling catch to keep this a one-score game. pic.twitter.com/2ubXWrmnvT

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 30, 2025

There was more to lament in the aftermath of a tight contest. Padres starter Nick Pivetta, with personal catcher Elias Díaz sidelined by an oblique injury, threw five largely spotless innings to Freddy Fermin. His most glaring mistake came in the bottom of the fifth, when Seiya Suzuki deposited a fastball that caught too much plate in the left-field bleachers. Six pitches later, Carson Kelly sent another fastball, this one above the strike zone, to a similar spot for the go-ahead run.

“It’s part of baseball. I gave up three hits today,” Pivetta said. “For me, this is the baseball park that we’re in with a day game in Chicago. But, I mean, I need to execute. Especially the Seiya pitch, I need to execute that pitch a little bit better.”

It marked the second time in postseason history that the Padres had surrendered back-to-back home runs. The first: Game 4 of the 1984 National League Championship, also against the Cubs. Those Padres quickly erased a one-run deficit and eventually won on a walk-off home run by Steve Garvey that remains perhaps the franchise’s greatest moment.

These Padres ended the regular season with only 152 home runs, 38 fewer than they hit last year. That helped explain their affinity for the bunt, particularly in close games.

Tuesday brought the closest one yet.

“It’s playoff baseball,” Merrill said. “We’ve got to score a run any way we can.”

That task grew progressively more difficult. By the time Cubs manager Craig Counsell exercised a quick hook after Fermin’s one-out, fifth-inning single, shadows had enveloped both batter’s boxes. Danny Palencia took over for Boyd and went about firing triple-digit heat. The Padres faced Drew Pomeranz the next inning, then allowed the rejuvenated ex-San Diego lefty to retire the side.

They never reached base again.

“It was bad,” Bogaerts said of the shadows.

“I don’t know if we ever played at 2 (o’clock) here. I think maybe Sundays, we’ve played at 1. But, man. And then you’ve got guys throwing 100. I mean, look at our bullpen. (The Cubs) were making some funny swings, too.”

Aside from the consecutive homers in the bottom of the fifth, that appeared to be the case. The Cubs scored their only insurance run in the eighth, when Jeremiah Estrada uncorked a wild pitch and subsequently yielded a sacrifice fly, the home team playing the kind of small ball the visitors had failed to execute.

“It could be tough to see late in the game, but, you know, both sides are dealing with it,” O’Hearn said, “so you have to find a way to make it happen.”

“There’s no excuses, man,” Machado said. “You’ve got to go out there and play.”

In the end, as Bob Marley played in a cramped clubhouse, the Padres might have been left to ponder their early-innings misfortune, their lack of opportunism and their season-long shortage of power. Pivetta, their most reliable starter, might have made his final appearance of the year. Dylan Cease, the talented but mercurial right-hander, will take the mound Wednesday afternoon with what figures to be a short leash.

To survive, the Padres will have to muster more offense than they did to end either Tuesday’s game or the 2024 National League Division Series. Five years ago, against the St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego came back from a 1-0 series deficit to win consecutive elimination games. That playoff triumph, however, unfolded with fans absent from Petco Park due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

How will these Padres, playing in a raucous, hostile venue, go about a daunting challenge?

“I mean, go out there and play,” Machado said. “It’s another game. Stakes are a lot higher, but it’s a beautiful thing to just be in this position, regardless.”

“We know what we’re looking at,” Shildt said. “We’ve got to take care of business tomorrow to set ourselves up to take care of business on Thursday, and we expect to do that. Our clubhouse right now is disappointed, but nobody is hanging their head.”

Added Merrill: “We’ve got to win. We know that. But we’re still going to come have fun, play our brand of baseball.”

In all likelihood, win or lose, it will be a familiar brand.

(Photo: Meg McLaughlin / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)

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