NFL predictions: Playoff implications for Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Monday Night Football from proven model

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After ending a four-year playoff drought in 2022 by winning the AFC South title with a 9-8 record, the Jacksonville Jaguars finished with the same mark the following season but placed second in the division and did not qualify for the postseason. Things went south for the team last year as they went 4-13 and were without quarterback Trevor Lawrence for seven games due to a shoulder injury and a concussion.

As a result of the dismal season, there was an overhaul to the coaching staff. Head coach Doug Pederson was fired and replaced by former Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, while new offensive and defensive coordinators were brought in.

The changes appear to be working, as the Jaguars enter their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season tied with the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South with a 3-1 record. Jacksonville’s only loss was a 31-27 road setback against the Cincinnati Bengals in which it allowed the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

Kansas City, which was embarrassed last February by the Philadelphia Eagles in its quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls, began this campaign with back-to-back losses against the Los Angeles Chargers and Eagles. The disappointing start led many to wonder if the team’s dominance in the AFC West was coming to an end.

But the Chiefs seem to be turning things around as they posted victories over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens to even their record at 2-2. Thanks to New York’s triumph over Los Angeles in Week 4, Kansas City is just one game behind the division-leading Chargers, and its chances for a 10th straight division title are very much alive.

With both teams entering their Monday night showdown having posted back-to-back wins, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team believes Jacksonville and Kansas City each have a solid chance to make the playoffs. But its projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is more confident in the Chiefs as it sees them reaching the postseason well over 84% of the time and the Jaguars in just over 57% of its simulations.

The ITL team’s model has crunched the numbers for Monday’s contest at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, as well as every NFL game for the remainder of the season, and its simulations say a loss by the Chiefs wouldn’t be devastating to their playoff outlook. Should it drop to 2-3, Kansas City’s postseason chances would drop to just over 69%.

According to the model, the Chiefs qualify for the playoffs in almost 88% of its simulations with a victory, making it less than a 19% difference between a win and a loss. However, the model says Jacksonville’s difference would be more significant, as the Jaguars’s playoff chances would increase to almost 71% with a victory but fall to just under 48% with a loss on Monday night.

Meanwhile, neither club’s chances for a division title are very good at the moment, as they both are just under 33%, and will get worse by more than 10% with a loss on Monday. The model sees Kansas City’s chances dropping to less than 23% with a loss and Jacksonville’s dipping below 28%.

With a victory in Week 5, the model says the Chiefs win the AFC West in more than 38% of its simulations. It projects the Jaguars to capture the AFC South 41% of the time with a triumph.

The Jaguars are 2-0 at home this season and also won their final game at EverBank Stadium last campaign. But they haven’t fared well anywhere against the Chiefs of late, losing each of the last eight meetings between the teams — including in the 2022 AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Kansas City defeated the Jaguars 17-9 in Jacksonville when the teams most recently met in Week 2 of the 2023 season. Patrick Mahomes threw for 305 yards and a pair of touchdowns while Lawrence completed only 22-of-41 pass attempts for 216 yards as Jacksonville was limited to three field goals.

Both clubs are looking to record a third consecutive victory, but it would be more helpful to the Jaguars when it comes to the playoff hopes of both teams. Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest consensus odds, and the ITL team’s model is leaning toward a cover by the Chiefs, projecting them to register a 25-20 win.

This news was originally published on this post .

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