Phillies-Dodgers NLDS: What we’re watching in the series, starting with Cristopher Sánchez

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PHILADELPHIA — The man who was supposed to be starting Game 1 of the National League Division Series for the Phillies approached Cristopher Sánchez with a question during Thursday’s optional workout, which was attended by almost the entire roster.

“Are you ready?” Zack Wheeler asked Sánchez.

“Of course I am,” Sánchez said.

To Sánchez, there is something about this place. Nothing is guaranteed. But, since the beginning of the 2024 season, the Phillies have won 27 of the 33 times he’s started at Citizens Bank Park. There is a photo of Sánchez that lines the hallway from the clubhouse to the dugout, and he touches it before every start. He wants to feel the bones of this ballpark.

“Knowing every inch of this stadium, I think those are extra motivations,” Sánchez said through team interpreter Diego D’Aniello. “Just the support that you get when you’re at home.”

Sanchie Day pic.twitter.com/5bH1sboXC6

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) July 22, 2025

Last October, the Phillies rearranged their rotation so Sánchez could start at home in the NLDS. There was no need to do so this year. With Wheeler sidelined, Sánchez is the guy. He’s the one opposing Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani in the critical opener of this highly anticipated best-of-five series. These two teams are so evenly matched that every potential advantage is magnified.

Sánchez’s signature pitch, his changeup, is one of the better offerings in baseball. At home, it might be the best. Opponents hit .140 with a .168 slugging percentage against his changeup at Citizens Bank Park. (On the road, it was .198 with a .309 slugging — still elite.)

Sánchez’s changeup has neutralized power more than any other starter’s pitch in their home ballpark over the last two seasons (.167 slugging percentage) except for Framber Valdez’s curveball (.159 slug) at Daikin Park. Against the powerful Dodgers, it should be a prominent part of the game plan.

“I don’t know metrically if it’s any different here,” Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto said. “I do know he loves pitching here. He loves the atmosphere. What the crowd brings to him, I think, is something that can’t be overstated. Obviously, his numbers here have been really good the last few years. There’s something he feels in this ballpark where he just feels at home. He feels confident and he enjoys dominating here.”

But there is an interesting dynamic heading into Game 1. Of the 32 starts Sánchez made in 2025, his changeup usage was lowest in the two games he pitched against Los Angeles. Sánchez threw his changeup 38 percent of the time in 30 starts, then only 22.6 percent against the Dodgers.

This, then, is no coincidence: The Dodgers slugged .438 on lefty changeups in 2025. Since 2024, they have slugged .480 on them, which is 27 points more than the second-best offense versus lefty changeups.

Typically, the Phillies’ game plan is based on their starter’s strengths — not the opponent’s weaknesses. They incorporate both, but they weigh their own pitcher heaviest. Whether Sánchez’s altered changeup usage in the regular season against the Dodgers, specifically in the September outing at Dodger Stadium, was intentional remains to be seen.

Cristopher Sánchez has thrived when pitching at Citizens Bank Park. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)

The other layer to all of this is Ohtani, who will be the first batter Sánchez faces Saturday night in Game 1. Every Ohtani at-bat will be a pressure point in this series. Few lefties have the wherewithal to throw Ohtani a left-on-left changeup. He saw 60 the entire season. But he struck out 13 times on a lefty changeup. He swung through 17 of the 60 he saw. He slugged only .300 on lefty changeups.

Eight of those 60 were thrown by Sánchez. Ohtani didn’t put any of them in play. He whiffed at four of them.

Those around the Phillies see this as Sánchez’s time. He will likely finish second in National League Cy Young Award voting. He could have won it in most years. Everyone knows Ohtani.

Fewer know Sánchez, whose rise has been remarkable.

“Experience is a beautiful thing that this game gives you,” Sánchez said. “And throughout the years, you gain so much.”

Roster clarity

Jesús Luzardo is likely to start Game 2 for the Phillies. (Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)

All signs on Friday indicated Jesús Luzardo would start Game 2 for the Phillies with Ranger Suárez pitching in Game 3 at Dodger Stadium. Part of the motivation is to have Luzardo at home, along with the option to have a quicker hook on him because there is an off day between Games 2 and 3.

But another reason for that alignment is to have Suárez available in the bullpen during Game 1.

The Phillies do not have to use Suárez as a reliever, but keeping the option open is wise. It’s possible Los Angeles will have six lefties sitting in their bullpen Saturday, a ploy designed to give Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as many different looks as possible throughout this series.

Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks enter this series as important figures. The Phillies will want Strahm on Ohtani and Freddie Freeman late in games. But teams have discovered it’s increasingly dangerous to have the same opposing hitters seeing the same relievers over the course of a postseason series. Suárez, if the right moment arises, could help mitigate that in Game 1.

Weston Wilson and Otto Kemp are expected to be on the roster. With all of the Dodgers’ lefty relievers, Wilson or Kemp could be pressed into pinch-hitting duty in the middle of games if the Phillies are trailing. Phillies manager Rob Thomson will have decisions to make. Brandon Marsh was 4-for-16 with a homer and three walks against lefties in September. Max Kepler was 4-for-13 with a homer and two walks against lefties in September. Both of them struggled overall against lefties this season. The Dodgers will look to exploit that.

One of Wilson or Kemp could be in left field whenever lefty Blake Snell starts, which could be Game 2 or 3.

Wilson homered in September against Dodgers rookie lefty Jack Dreyer.

The Phillies would have loved a defensive presence for the end of their bench; Wilson and Kemp have similar skill sets at the plate and in the field. They will be sacrificing defense if they deploy either one as a pinch hitter.

Patient vs. passive

Shohei Ohtani had a 2.87 ERA over 47 innings in the regular season. He allowed no hits over five scoreless innings when he faced the Phillies in September. (Justin Edmonds / Getty Images)

Everyone knows the current dynamic. The Dodgers have a strong rotation, headlined by Ohtani. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, then Snell should follow Ohtani. The Dodgers could turn to Tyler Glasnow in a potential Game 4; Ohtani would not be an option because he has never pitched on regular (four days’) rest in his career.

The bullpen is Los Angeles’ weakest unit. It showed cracks in September and was not efficient during a two-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card Series.

The Phillies would be wise to force Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to dip into his bullpen as soon as possible. Being patient is a noble goal, but it can lead to being too passive.

That is why all of the talk leading into this series around the batting cage is about controlling the game. Swing at strikes.

“It’s a balance there,” Thomson said. “I think our goal — doesn’t matter who we’re facing —  is try to get the starter out of the game as soon as we can. So that’s really what our game plan is. I don’t think it’s a secret.

“What we really want to do is keep the ball in the strike zone. That’s really the goal. If you can do that, you’ll build pitch counts.”

This and that

• Bryce Harper didn’t participate in Thursday’s or Friday’s workout; his family welcomed their fourth child this week. He came to the ballpark later in the day Friday and did one-on-one conditioning work with a strength coach.

Twice, Harper has homered in his first game after the birth of a child. He couldn’t do it for Brooklyn, his oldest daughter, because she was born in the offseason.

• The padded schedule — an extra off day between Games 1 and 2 — might benefit the oldest player in this series more than anyone. David Robertson, 40, was hit hard in five outings this season when he pitched on the second of back-to-back days. Opponents batted .368/.455/.947 against him. He allowed six earned runs (and three homers) in those appearances.

He allowed two earned runs in all of his other outings (13 2/3 innings) for a 1.32 ERA.

• The lesser lefties, Tanner Banks and Anthony Banda, could be significant factors in this series. Banks held lefties to a .172/.212/.242 line in 2025; only eight lefty relievers had a lower wOBA against lefty hitters than Banks’ .203. Banda, who was not on Los Angeles’ roster for the Wild Card Series, was just as good against lefties. They hit .144/.227/.216.

The last word

Here’s Realmuto on the extra juice in this series:

“Obviously, any team you play in the postseason is going to be a challenge, and you’re going to be excited to play,” he said. “But playing a team like this — in my opinion, they’re the epitome of what Major League Baseball should be; they go out every year and try to win, their ownership is awesome, their front office is great. It’s an organization that the other teams look up to.

“And I see us the same way. I feel this matchup is going to be a lot of fun. And it’s good for the game to have these two teams going at it.”

(Top photo of Cristopher Sánchez: Lucas Casel / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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