Five keys to Bo Nix and the Broncos authoring an upset in marquee matchup vs. Eagles

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ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos will visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday in search of what would arguably be the biggest win of the Sean Payton era in Denver.

Just don’t call it a measuring-stick game.

“We know we’re a good team and can go into an opponent’s house and win a football game,” said Nik Bonitto, the Broncos pass rusher who may be playing better through four games than any defensive player in football. “I don’t think it’s a measuring stick. We know who we are.”

That may be true, but the world outside the Broncos’ locker room will have a much better idea of what this team is capable of this season following Sunday’s marquee matchup, which precedes a weeklong trip to London for the Broncos ahead of a Week 6 game against the Jets. Here are five things I’ll be watching in Philadelphia.

Is there an encore coming in the running game?

It didn’t take J.K. Dobbins long to set a new goal after becoming the first Broncos running back in 38 games to rush for a 100 yards.

“Maybe I can go back-to-back now,” Dobbins said with a wide grin late Monday after rushing for 101 yards on just 16 carries against the Bengals.

The Eagles have not allowed a 100-yard rusher since Rico Dowdle of the Cowboys put up 104 yards on 23 carries in Week 17 last season, but that milestone isn’t the chase for the Broncos in this game. The broader question is whether they create enough balance in the run game to keep the heat off quarterback Bo Nix in what will be a chaotic environment.

Payton said Dobbins and rookie R.J. Harvey were both “exceptional” against the Bengals while contributing 203 total yards of offense on 35 touches, and both benefited from a more equal division of labor that was largely distributed on a series-by-series basis as opposed to shuffling the two backs into specific run looks. The Broncos have created explosive plays in the run game in each of the first four games, but what stood out in Monday’s win was the early and sustained commitment to that facet of the offense. That had been absent at times earlier in the season, even though the Broncos have never trailed in a game by more than one score in 2025 — and haven’t trailed at all in the fourth quarter.

There will be opportunities for steady profits in the run game if the Broncos stick to it. The Eagles rank just 21st in defensive rush success rate this season, according to TruMedia.

“When we run the football early, we get into third-and-manageable,” Nix said. “We stay on the field for longer, we score points. So that’s what we’re going to continue to try to work on and continue to do.”

Can Broncos keep middle of the pocket clean?

It took Nix only a few throws into Monday night’s win against the Bengals to realize that he would be operating from a perfectly U-shaped pocket for much of the night. The second-year quarterback took advantage, delivering decisive throws from the pocket on time and in rhythm in a more efficient way than he had through Denver’s first three games.

The question for Sunday’s game in Philadelphia is whether Nix can replicate that performance without the same clean geometry in front of him. The Eagles have only five sacks through four games, which ranks 27th in the league, but they have nonetheless limited opposing quarterbacks to a 78.7 passer rating. That’s good for the seventh-best mark in the league and is a product, in part, of an ability to damage the pocket even when they aren’t getting all the way home. They rank 12th in pressure rate (38.4 percent), according to TruMedia, despite blitzing sparingly — the norm for a Vic Fangio-coached defense.

It will be important for the Broncos to handle the stress Jordan Davis can create from the interior. Payton said he has been pleased with the performance of center Luke Wattenberg despite the second-year starter being called for three accepted penalties in Monday’s game, but handling the 6-foot-6, 336-pound defensive lineman will rarely be a one-person job. The ability for Denver to give Nix some clean looks and create space in the run game could come down to how well they neutralize Davis and the interior of Philadelphia’s defensive line.

Avoiding the RB pass-game explosive

Saquon Barkley has had a slow start running the ball, by his lofty standards. The 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year is averaging only 3.1 yards per carry through the first four games and has rushed for fewer than 70 yards in three of those. Those aren’t comforting statistics for Denver’s rush defense. Barkley still has three touchdowns on the ground and is capable of flipping a game with a breakaway run at any moment. The Eagles offense has been clunky overall to start the season and that has impacted Barkley’s production. He is still arguably the most electric runner in the NFL.

Yet, where Barkley may be most frightening in this matchup is as a receiver out of the backfield. Though the Broncos limited Cincinnati’s Chase Brown for the most part in that area Monday — his 31 yards on three catches were still his highest total of the season — they have been vulnerable all year to back-breaking, explosive plays from opposing running backs. In their two losses (at Indianapolis, at the Los Angeles Chargers), they gave up 30-plus yard receptions to running backs because of coverage breakdowns that ultimately led to critical scores.

Saquon Barkley has 17 receptions this season, including four in last week’s win against the Buccaneers. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / Imagn Images)

Barkley is not the league’s most prolific receiver out of the backfield. He has eclipsed 30 yards receiving only once this season. But given his game-breaking ability in the open field and Denver’s struggles at times this season to account for that position in the passing game, it is certainly an element to watch Sunday.

Which elite corner will impact the game more?

Pat Surtain II entered the NFL as a first-round pick of the Broncos in 2021 and was coached by Vic Fangio. His position coach was Christian Parker.

Quinyon Mitchell entered the NFL as a first-round pick of the Eagles in 2024 and was coached by Fangio. His position coach was and is Parker, who now oversees Philadelphia’s talented secondary.

But the shared coaching DNA is not the only trait the two elite cornerbacks share. Just take it from Surtain.

“He has it all,” the reigning Defensive Player of the Year said of Mitchell. “He possesses the skills (and) traits that you look for in a corner. He’s very feisty. He has great feet, great fundamentals. I think he’s going to be a great corner for years to come.”

Mitchell and Surtain will be on the field at opposite times, of course, but their alternating matchups could play a big role in the outcome. Mitchell is tasked with facing Courtland Sutton, who has 199 yards receiving and two touchdowns in Denver’s past two games. Surtain will likely spend plenty of time on A.J. Brown, who the Eagles are trying to free up for more opportunities coming off a game against the Buccaneers in which he caught just two passes for 7 yards. Surtain could also see work against speedy DeVonta Smith, his former teammate at Alabama.

If you enjoy high-level defensive back play, this game will be appointment viewing — and it starts with two of the league’s best corners.

Can the Broncos finish?

There is plenty of data that points to a close game Sunday in Philadelphia. For example, the Eagles are 4-0 despite having a scoring margin of plus-20. Their biggest margin of victory is seven points, and that came after they blocked a field goal against the Rams while leading by one on the game’s final play and returning it for a touchdown. Watching that play on film this week gave Payton nightmarish flashbacks to Denver’s loss to Kansas City last year, a defeat that came after Wil Lutz’s 35-yard field goal attempt was blocked at the buzzer.

That game against the Chiefs last November was one of a handful the Broncos have lost to good teams on the road in one-possession games the past two seasons. There were defeats against the Chargers and Bengals last December that came down to the final possession. Losses to the Colts and Chargers this season were even narrower, the final outcome decided on the final play in both games.

All signs point to a similarly close game Sunday. Can the Broncos finally make the plays necessary — or, perhaps more importantly, avoid critical late mistakes — to author the biggest statement win of the Payton era in Denver? Doing so would sure make for a happy flight across the Atlantic Ocean.

(Top photo of J.K. Dobbins: Sam Greene / The Enquirer via Imagn Images)

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