Matchups to target for NFL Week 5 betting

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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.

Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.

Dak Prescott poised to pick apart the Jets defense

The Jets defense has struggled to create disruption this season, posting the lowest overall disruption rate in the NFL at just 35.5%. They’ve been among the league’s worst in generating pressure and in producing perfect coverage.

While Dak Prescott has faced consistent pressure behind a struggling offensive line, he’s been highly effective when kept clean—ranking second only to Jordan Love in EPA per play from a clean pocket. Against a Jets defense that ranks last in explosive play rate allowed, Prescott is well-positioned for a big day in this matchup.

I’ll be targeting Dak Prescott alternate passing lines and building same-game parlays around the Cowboys dominating the Jets through the air.


Bengals wide receiver duo puts up numbers against the Lions

One of PFF’s previous studies on coverage types found that talent wins out more often in man coverage than zone — elite wide receivers consistently beat lesser cornerbacks, and vice versa.

That’s a concern for the Lions, who currently lead the NFL in man coverage rate. With D.J. Reed injured and no cornerback on the roster boasting a PFF grade above 53.0 (ranking 77th or worse leaguewide), this secondary is in a vulnerable spot. Now they face Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins—a duo that, despite a slow start, carries a strong history of elite production.

Both Chase and Higgins posted well above-average underlying metrics last season, and matchups outside of Minnesota and Denver should allow this passing game to thrive.

I’ll be backing the Bengals with same-game parlays built around success through the air, expecting the offense to flow through their still-dominant wide receiver duo.

This news was originally published on this post .

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