Week 7 of the college football season brings us to a pivotal point, the midpoint for most programs and the first real chance to separate contenders from pretenders. By now, teams have enough data points to show who they really are, and oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. That means value is shrinking as efficiency models sharpen.
Advertisement
But for bettors who attack the openers early, there’s still an edge to be found before the lines adjust.
This week’s slate features a few intriguing angles: a potential rebound spot for a top-tier program, an underdog with an inflated number and a Group of Five team quietly in position to control a matchup.
Let’s dive into three early Week 7 plays worth grabbing before the market catches up.
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM.)
Appalachian State Mountaineers (-2.5, 56.5) at Georgia State Panthers
Georgia State is getting some love after holding James Madison’s potent offense to just 285 total yards in an impressive defensive showing. But before we crown the Panthers, it’s worth remembering who’s leading the offense: TJ Finley, a midseason scholarship addition who wasn’t even the starter when the season began. Against JMU, that offense managed just seven points and 249 yards — not exactly a breakout performance. Add in 15 penalties, and it’s clear that discipline and consistency remain major issues.
Advertisement
[Check out all of Yahoo’s sports betting content here in our new betting hub]
Appalachian State, meanwhile, comes off a shaky defensive effort against Oregon State, where it gave up chunk plays through the air. But the Mountaineers still found a way to win, and it’s telling that this program has made a habit of bouncing back when the market sours on them. Their secondary should look far more comfortable against a Georgia State offense that ranks bottom-40 nationally in explosive plays and lacks the talent to exploit App State’s defensive weaknesses.
The matchup edge is on the Mountaineers’ side in the trenches, and with a steadier quarterback and cleaner execution, they should handle business here.
Bet: App State -2.5
Northwestern Wildcats at Penn State Nittany Lions (-21.5, 48.5)
Yes, we’re doing this again. After backing Penn State -24.5 last week in a shocking outright loss to UCLA, it’s fair to ask why anyone would return to that well. But this is exactly the kind of overreaction spot where value shows up.
Advertisement
The market has overcorrected, fading Penn State too aggressively after two straight losses. Context matters: UCLA underwent major in-season staff and schematic changes, making prep and film work unusually difficult for Penn State’s defense. The result was a sluggish, confused start and a deficit they couldn’t erase. But despite the mess, the Nittany Lions are still significantly more talented and structured than Northwestern.
To illustrate: Oregon closed as a 24-point favorite at home against Northwestern last month (roughly +26 on a neutral), while Penn State sits at -21.5 at home this week (neutral +23.5). That implies only a 2.5-point difference between Oregon and Penn State, a gap that’s simply too narrow based on underlying efficiency metrics.
This is a “buy low” spot on James Franklin’s team. Expect urgency, sharper execution and a refocused defense.
Bet: Penn State -21.5
NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-22.5, 61.5)
Notre Dame is a quality team, but this spread feels bloated. The Irish beat Boise State 28-7 last week, a score that looks dominant on paper but was fueled by four Broncos interceptions. Strip away those turnovers, and Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency was ordinary at best.
Advertisement
On the other side, NC State comes in healthier and quietly steady. Yes, injuries have hit the Wolfpack defense, but they handled their game against Campbell with ease and now face a Notre Dame offense that hasn’t been explosive in recent weeks. NC State’s defensive front should be capable of generating enough pressure to keep this within striking distance, and QB CJ Bailey provides enough mobility to extend drives.
My projections make this line closer to +17, meaning we’re catching over a field goal of value in a spot where Notre Dame may not have the offensive gear to create true separation.
Bet: NC State +22.5
Week 6 betting recap
-
Penn State at UCLA (early article bet: Penn State -24.5): Loss.
-
UCLA (+24.5) shocked the college football world with a 42-37 upset, becoming the first 0-4 team in 40 years to beat a top-10 opponent. The Nittany Lions’ offense was lifeless early and couldn’t recover.
-
-
Virginia at Louisville (early article bet: Louisville -7.5): Loss.
-
Virginia pulled out a 30-27 overtime win despite being outgained and limited to 237 yards. Two defensive scores made the difference as Louisville’s turnovers again proved costly.
-
-
Ohio at Ball State (early article bet: Ohio -14.5): Loss.
-
Ball State rallied late, scoring a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute to stun the Bobcats 20-14. Ohio was shut out in the second half.
-
-
Virginia at Louisville (Under 61.5): Winner.
-
Lost the Louisville -7.5 early week bet, so it’s nice to come out of this game 1-1.
-
-
Clemson at North Carolina (Over 46.5): Winner.
-
Clemson exploded for 28 points in the first quarter and never looked back, cruising past the total in a 38-10 rout.
-
-
Vanderbilt at Alabama (Under 55.5): Winner.
-
After a 14-14 halftime score, Vanderbilt was shut out in the second half while Alabama’s ground game ate clock, finishing well under the total at 30-14.
-
Advertisement
Overall Week 6 record: 3-3 (0-3 on early article plays)
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Heisman Watch: Will Oklahoma’s John Mateer play against Texas? If he does, it could have a big impact on the Heisman race
John Mateer could vault back to the forefront of the Heisman race in Week 7. If he plays, of course.The Oklahoma quarterback is just two weeks removed from surgery on his right throwing hand after he suffered a broken bone in the team’s win over Auburn.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe initial estimation for Mateer’s post-surgery absence was approximately a month; a timeline that would have him missing Saturday’s game against arch-rival Texas. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said he was unsure of Mateer’s status for the game on his coaches show Monday night.“I don’t know when John Mateer will be back,” Venables said (via On3).Tuesday morning, ESPN reported that it was "possible" Mateer could play on Saturday.You can bet that Texas is preparing for Mateer to play — even if it may be a long shot. Oddsmakers clearly think Mateer is going to miss the […]
Most common players on eliminated teams from Week 5 in Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues — plus FAB waiver wire advice
Five weeks are in the books, which means five managers in your Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.Every week I’ll examine the most common NFL players on those cut teams and try to figure out where the puck is headed. I will also offer some FAB advice ($1,000 cap is the Yahoo default), but please remember this area is highly context-sensitive and manager-specific.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWaiver strategy in Guillotine LeaguesIf you’re new to this format, it’s critical to understand that waiver strategy is significantly different in the world of Guillotine Leagues.You can often win a traditional fantasy league with modest help from the waiver wire, maybe a timely pickup or two. Sure, it’s great if you crush the […]
Early Week 6 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Steelers
We are headed into Week 6 of the NFL season, which means one handicapping situation comes into play that we haven't seen yet this season: the rest advantage created by a team coming off its bye week. Bye Weeks started in Week 5, so while we have seen some 10-day rest advantages because of Thursday Night Football, and some single-day rest disadvantages because of Monday Night Football, this is the first time we see a full week on rest and prep advantages. That will definitely be a factor in both of my suggested plays this week.These Tuesday NFL articles have been very reliable at producing closing line value and subsequent winners: 5-0 in the last two weeks, closing ahead of the market four times and just flat at the number in one. Let’s hope to keep it up by attacking […]
Davi Brito x Sacha Bali: Duelo de campeões de realities agita o Fight Music Show 7
Foto ReproduçãoO Fight Music Show 7 (FMS 7) acontece no dia 1º de novembro de 2025, no Ginásio do Ibirapuera, em São Paulo, com a luta principal entre Davi Brito x Sacha Bali. Dois campeões de realities que agora vão resolver as provocações na base da luva. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEO confronto substitui a luta entre Acelino “Popó” Freitas e Diego Alemão, que foram retirados do evento após o ex-pugilista passar por uma cirurgia. O embate entre Davi e Sacha promete trazer grande apelo midiático, já que ambos têm milhões de seguidores e estilos de personalidade fortes e explosivos.Davi Brito quer provar que pode brilhar também no ringueCampeão do Big Brother Brasil 24, Davi Brito mostrou-se confiante e empolgado com a nova fase. O baiano, que conquistou o país com sua história de superação e carisma, vem treinando boxe sob a supervisão […]
How spring football plans to get bigger by getting smaller
For more than 40 years now, visionaries, investors and the occasional future president have attempted to make spring football work in the United States. All have foundered or failed, struggling both to draw fans and to justify their own existence.Here’s the big question that has bedeviled spring football since the USFL first kicked off in 1982: Is this a problem of product or presentation? Is the very idea of spring football flawed, or do its problems lie in the way it’s branded, marketed and offered up to the public?AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe United Football League believes it’s hit on an answer to those questions, and on Tuesday unveiled a range of strategies designed to maximize spring football’s strengths (it’s football) while minimizing its weaknesses (low attendance relative to NFL games). Starting in the 2026 season, three new franchises — the Orlando Storm, the […]
Last Night in Baseball: Turns Out The Brewers Are a Pretty Good Baseball Team
Having a tough time following along with the MLB postseason? Just want to relive the best moments?Don't worry, we're here to help you by figuring out what you missed but shouldn't have. Here are all the best moments from last night in Major League Baseball:Brewers put Cubs on the brinkThings started out so well for the Cubs, which was important after the drubbing they took on Saturday in Game 1. Seiya Suzuki kicked things off with a 3-run home run off of starter Aaron Ashby, who didn’t make it out of the second inning, and suddenly anything was possible.That feeling was brief, as the Brewers responded with three runs of their own in the bottom of the first, when Andrew Vaughn hit his own 3-run dinger to tie things up.Ashby didn’t make it out of the second inning, but he […]
Related
Heisman Watch: Will Oklahoma’s John Mateer play against Texas? If he does, it could have a big impact on the Heisman race
John Mateer could vault back to the forefront of the Heisman race in Week 7. If he plays, of course.The Oklahoma quarterback is just two weeks removed from surgery on his right throwing hand after he suffered a broken bone in the team’s win over Auburn.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe initial estimation for Mateer’s post-surgery absence was approximately a month; a timeline that would have him missing Saturday’s game against arch-rival Texas. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said he was unsure of Mateer’s status for the game on his coaches show Monday night.“I don’t know when John Mateer will be back,” Venables said (via On3).Tuesday morning, ESPN reported that it was "possible" Mateer could play on Saturday.You can bet that Texas is preparing for Mateer to play — even if it may be a long shot. Oddsmakers clearly think Mateer is going to miss the […]
Most common players on eliminated teams from Week 5 in Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues — plus FAB waiver wire advice
Five weeks are in the books, which means five managers in your Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.Every week I’ll examine the most common NFL players on those cut teams and try to figure out where the puck is headed. I will also offer some FAB advice ($1,000 cap is the Yahoo default), but please remember this area is highly context-sensitive and manager-specific.AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWaiver strategy in Guillotine LeaguesIf you’re new to this format, it’s critical to understand that waiver strategy is significantly different in the world of Guillotine Leagues.You can often win a traditional fantasy league with modest help from the waiver wire, maybe a timely pickup or two. Sure, it’s great if you crush the […]
Early Week 6 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Steelers
We are headed into Week 6 of the NFL season, which means one handicapping situation comes into play that we haven't seen yet this season: the rest advantage created by a team coming off its bye week. Bye Weeks started in Week 5, so while we have seen some 10-day rest advantages because of Thursday Night Football, and some single-day rest disadvantages because of Monday Night Football, this is the first time we see a full week on rest and prep advantages. That will definitely be a factor in both of my suggested plays this week.These Tuesday NFL articles have been very reliable at producing closing line value and subsequent winners: 5-0 in the last two weeks, closing ahead of the market four times and just flat at the number in one. Let’s hope to keep it up by attacking […]
Davi Brito x Sacha Bali: Duelo de campeões de realities agita o Fight Music Show 7
Foto ReproduçãoO Fight Music Show 7 (FMS 7) acontece no dia 1º de novembro de 2025, no Ginásio do Ibirapuera, em São Paulo, com a luta principal entre Davi Brito x Sacha Bali. Dois campeões de realities que agora vão resolver as provocações na base da luva. PUBLICIDADE PUBLICIDADEO confronto substitui a luta entre Acelino “Popó” Freitas e Diego Alemão, que foram retirados do evento após o ex-pugilista passar por uma cirurgia. O embate entre Davi e Sacha promete trazer grande apelo midiático, já que ambos têm milhões de seguidores e estilos de personalidade fortes e explosivos.Davi Brito quer provar que pode brilhar também no ringueCampeão do Big Brother Brasil 24, Davi Brito mostrou-se confiante e empolgado com a nova fase. O baiano, que conquistou o país com sua história de superação e carisma, vem treinando boxe sob a supervisão […]
How spring football plans to get bigger by getting smaller
For more than 40 years now, visionaries, investors and the occasional future president have attempted to make spring football work in the United States. All have foundered or failed, struggling both to draw fans and to justify their own existence.Here’s the big question that has bedeviled spring football since the USFL first kicked off in 1982: Is this a problem of product or presentation? Is the very idea of spring football flawed, or do its problems lie in the way it’s branded, marketed and offered up to the public?AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe United Football League believes it’s hit on an answer to those questions, and on Tuesday unveiled a range of strategies designed to maximize spring football’s strengths (it’s football) while minimizing its weaknesses (low attendance relative to NFL games). Starting in the 2026 season, three new franchises — the Orlando Storm, the […]
Last Night in Baseball: Turns Out The Brewers Are a Pretty Good Baseball Team
Having a tough time following along with the MLB postseason? Just want to relive the best moments?Don't worry, we're here to help you by figuring out what you missed but shouldn't have. Here are all the best moments from last night in Major League Baseball:Brewers put Cubs on the brinkThings started out so well for the Cubs, which was important after the drubbing they took on Saturday in Game 1. Seiya Suzuki kicked things off with a 3-run home run off of starter Aaron Ashby, who didn’t make it out of the second inning, and suddenly anything was possible.That feeling was brief, as the Brewers responded with three runs of their own in the bottom of the first, when Andrew Vaughn hit his own 3-run dinger to tie things up.Ashby didn’t make it out of the second inning, but he […]
Be the first to leave a comment