We are headed into Week 6 of the NFL season, which means one handicapping situation comes into play that we haven’t seen yet this season: the rest advantage created by a team coming off its bye week. Bye Weeks started in Week 5, so while we have seen some 10-day rest advantages because of Thursday Night Football, and some single-day rest disadvantages because of Monday Night Football, this is the first time we see a full week on rest and prep advantages. That will definitely be a factor in both of my suggested plays this week.
These Tuesday NFL articles have been very reliable at producing closing line value and subsequent winners: 5-0 in the last two weeks, closing ahead of the market four times and just flat at the number in one. Let’s hope to keep it up by attacking these lines.
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Process dictates results and getting in early in the week instead of betting the NFL on game day is an essential step for good process in such a sharp and efficient betting market.
Here are two early Week 6 NFL bets I like this week:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-4.5, 50)
The bye-week rest advantage factor has been well documented and even quantified; Warren Sharp is well known for tracking past results and forecasting all of these spots going into each year. It’s certainly baked into the number posted by the market already. So to rely on this factor means there needs to be additional reasoning beyond the rest advantage spot, or a reasoning to weigh it more in this spot than in others.
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Because Ben Johnson is a first-year head coach in Chicago and QB Caleb Williams is in his sophomore season, the extra prep time likely weighs more heavily. Add in the fact that Johnson’s offense is largely predicated on timing, having the additional prep time and opportunities to practice a specific game plan does provide added value in my mind.
The Bears were also one of the teams facing a lot of injuries early in the season, primarily in their secondary. Defensive Back Kyler Gordon was a full participant in the most recent Bears practice and after missing the last four weeks is expected to return against a Commanders offense that will still likely missing WR Terry McLaurin.
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This is a spot I would take both against the spread and money-line numbers. I think this closes at +4 or maybe even +3.5, and grabbing +4.5 (-105) and the money line at +185 is a no brainer. I like to split my exposure up 0.75 units on the spread and 0.25 units on the money line.
Bet: Bears +4.5, Bears ML +185
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 38.5)
This is the second game that represents a strong rest advantage spot, but the rest factor for the Steelers also comes with a travel disadvantage for the Browns. This is a disastrous schedule spot for Cleveland and worth fading.
Pittsburgh’s bye week in Week 5 is juxtaposed with the Browns having to travel back from London after Sunday’s game against the Vikings. According to my research, a team coming off of its bye has never played a team returning from an international game. This factor is completely unknown by the market.
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The Browns are also starting a QB in his second-ever career start in Dillon Gabriel, going against a veteran defense with time to prepare for him.
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However, we also need to factor in the very low total at 38.5, the medium sized spread at -5 and shift our position to the money line. BetMGM has the best price in the market for a money line position at -235. Even books pricing the spread at -4.5 have a steeper money-line number.
I prefer the money line to any other way to back the Steelers because of the low total and divisional game aspect as well. Some bettors don’t want to lay a big risk stake betting into a -235 line, to which I would respond to still bet the strongest number and lay one unit, just bringing home less return. The only that that matters long term in betting is the expect hit rate exceeds the implied probability of the odds you are betting into, and if this line closes north of -250 this is a no-brainer wager to make.
If it the spread moves from -5 to -5.5, the move through a non key number is still valuable, but I prefer the money line here.
Bet: Steelers ML -235
This news was originally published on this post .
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