Running backs to buy-sell-hold in fantasy football — based on one key stat

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When talking about the run game, it is dang near impossible to isolate running back play from offensive line play. Barring Barry Sanders-esque skills, even the best of the best running backs need, at a minimum, functional blocking to succeed.

There are a handful of OL stats out there but I think a running back’s yards before contact is a sneaky number that measures how well a line is blocking AND how well the back is utilizing those blocks.

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You’ve almost certainly heard of yards after contact, but as the stat name would imply, yards before contact measures how many yards a back is getting before a defender can lay a hand on him.

This isn’t directly an OL stat but if a good line is getting good push up front and grading roads for their running back, obviously, those before contact numbers will swell.

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Big, giant, untouched runs will skew some of these numbers, especially this early in the season, but for the most part, the following numbers are directionally correct with five weeks in the book.

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Think of it in another way: If you add yards before contact and yards after contact, it will add up perfectly to total yards per carry. The before stats are largely an OL stat and the after stats are largely individual effort stats.

With that said, let’s talk about which running backs could be in line to see some positive or negative regression and how to use that info to buy or sell RB stocks.

All stats courtesy of TruMedia

TEAMWORK MAKES THE DREAM WORK: YARDS BEFORE CONTACT LEADERS

*Among RB’s with at least 25 rush attempts

JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT, Commanders – BUY

Of the 47 running backs with at least 25 carries, Croskey-Merritt tops the list in terms of yards before contact per attempt. He is, on average, running for 2.19 yards before a defender is making contact. In total, about a third of all his rush yards have come before contact.

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And he’s using that runway afforded to him to the fullest. Not pictured, but JCM is also posting 4.4 yards after contact per attempt, good for the second-best mark in the league among all qualifying running backs.

Good luck trying to pry him away via trade, especially after his monstrous game last week, but all this to say, if Washington finally, finally, finally commits to Bill, it’s all gas, no brakes.

NICK CHUBB, Texans – SELL

We know that the Texans have one of the worst lines in football and yet, despite this, Chubb is averaging 1.93 yards before contact, tied for the fifth-best mark thus far.

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The fact that Chubb has accumulated a league-leading 45% of his yards before contact is a huge red flag for me as I don’t see this as a sustainable number in the slightest.

Chubb’s teammate, Woody Marks, is averaging just 1.1 yards before contact, ranking 25th out of 47 running backs. That number would seem much more in line with what Houston is working with in the trenches.

Considering he just posted a solid double-digit PPR this past week, I’d love to move Chubb while his value is high.

KENNETH WALKER III, Seahawks – BUY

On the flip side, Seattle’s starting back is the RB23 in per game scoring right now and that in no way captures how well he is playing in this Klint Kubiak run scheme.

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I don’t think the line is all that talented but they’re getting schemed up pretty well in the run game; no surprise, given Kubiak and company.

The fact that Walker is getting so many yards before contact is encouraging and, paired with his big-play ability, more big days could soon be on the horizon.

Walker is like N’Sync on their comeback tour — a screaming buy, buy, buy.

LEAST MODE: YARDS BEFORE CONTACT “LOSERS”

RJ Harvey, Broncos – BUY

The rookie out of UCF has been a disappointment thus far, clocking in as the RB43 in PPR formats. He’s failed to reach 8.0 fantasy points in four of five games played.

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That being said, he is currently DEAD LAST in percentage of rush yards accumulated before contact. But remember how, at the beginning of this piece, I said yards after contact is largely an individual effort stat? Harvey is LEADING all qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt.

In other words, he’s been good individually but he’s gotten quite unlucky with run blocking. And I stress luck — scroll back up to that first chart.

While Harvey is averaging 0.39 yards before contact (fourth worst), his Denver teammate, J.K. Dobbins, is averaging 1.91 yards before contact (seventh best).

It’s not all line play obviously, Harvey is impatient to the hole, he needs to let blocks develop in front of him better but that gap between him and Dobbins is outrageous and we should see both numbers level out as the season wears on.

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I see him in a mini-Jeanty situation where his line play will catch up somewhat to his individual play, and when it does, productivity will follow.

ZACH CHARBONNET, Seahawks – SELL

It may seem like I’m talking out of both sides of my mouth here because everything I said about OL playing balancing out between teammates could be applied here to Charbizard. That being said, it appears Seattle is calling on his poké ball mostly in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

His yards before contact numbers will improve but I’m not sure about his after contact numbers. His 2.35 YAC average ranks as sixth sixth-worst.

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Plus, the vast majority of his fantasy production has come via touchdowns.

Having scored three times in just four games played, an outrageous 50.1% of his fantasy points have come via touchdowns. That’s obviously an unsustainable number.

Considering he’s posted back-to-back double-digit PPR games, the time seems right to try and move him.

BHAYSHUL TUTEN, Jaguars – HOLD

The yards before contact numbers are massively different for Tuten and Travis Etienne Jr. as well, with the rookie getting the short end of the stick.

You figure those before contact numbers will even out, but that being said, Tuten also has not been running well. He has literally zero runs of 10+ yards thus far.

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At Virginia, with his 4.32 speed, Tuten was literally the best outside zone runner I charted in what was a really deep class. But as a pro, this outside ability has yet to show itself. Per NextGenStats, he’s averaging a paltry 2.1 yards per carry on outside runs. ETN is running to the outside with a 6.7 ypc average.

I think better days are ahead but it’s also entirely possible Tuten never gets truly activated this year and Etienne continues to play 60-70% of the snaps while LeQuint Allen Jr. continues to split backup work with Tuten.

I’m not to the point where I’m dropping him because you have to have patience with rookies, but I’m also not actively looking to trade for him in either redraft or dynasty setups. It’s just too murky of a picture for me.

This news was originally published on this post .