The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a divisional matchup on Thursday. The Steelers are leading the AFC North with a 4-1 record through five games. The Bengals are shockingly sitting in second, posting a 2-4 record thus far.
Pittsburgh’s been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. They currently rank ninth in the league in points (.436) per play. They also feature an elite defense, ranking fifth in points allowed (.311) per play. The Steelers have a +2.4 point average scoring margin this season.
Cincinnati is dealing with key injuries, and they’ve struggled to find any success in 2025. They rank 25th in points (.313) per play, and that total has unsurprisingly dipped since the injury to Joe Burrow. They aren’t better defensively, ranking 27th in points allowed (.458) per play. Overall, the Bengals own a league-worst -13.3 point average scoring margin.
The key to this play is blitz and pressure rates. Pittsburgh ranks third in both categories, consistently getting pressure on their opponents. Cincinnati blitzes at the second-lowest rate in the NFL, and they’re well below-average in pressure rate.
Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have good mobility anymore, but he’s looked outstanding when given a clean pocket. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception when he’s kept clean this season. He’s also found drastically more success when opponents don’t blitz him.
Joe Flacco took over for the Bengals in their last game, and he looked reasonable, but he hasn’t been good this season. Although he’s been worse when blitzed and pressured, he’s struggled in most scenarios. On the season, he’s averaging only 4.0 yards per attempt with 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions when he’s pressured.
These numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise. Most quarterbacks, specifically less mobile quarterbacks, are worse when they’re blitzed or under pressure. It does show the drastic difference between the two in those situations, though.
The more important aspect is the defenses. Pittsburgh will consistently get pressure on Flacco with Cincinnati’s offensive line struggling to find success. The Bengals won’t get as much pressure on Rodgers, and he should be kept clean throughout the majority of the game.
There are concerns that this is a divisional game, which tends to play closer. Still, the Steelers feel as though they’re still a bit undervalued, and this is an ideal matchup for them.
Where to Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 spread | -108 at FanDuel Sportsbook
2025 NFL Season Betting Record: 9-16
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