Another week of the college football season has come and gone, and we are still looking to bounce back. My College Football Projection Model continues to get solid numbers against the closing line — though Wisconsin is firmly on the “No Bet” list after last week — but the results aren’t following. Hopefully things get turned around here as there is still time to make up some of the damage. We won’t stop firing just because of some poor results, so let’s move on to this week!
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Last week’s record: 2-5, -3.55 units
Season record: 15-22-1, -9.17 units, -22% ROI
We have five plays locked and loaded, and maybe a few others to be added later, so keep an eye out, just like the other weeks. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
Week 8 best bets
Louisville at Miami over 49.5 (-115)
Worst price to bet: Over 50.5 (-110)
Do your best to shop around for this one as it’s the best price in market and too good of a price to pass up. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season, but I think Miami will be a test that Louisville hasn’t come close to facing this year. Miami has a different level of talent on offense, which should allow them to score some points here. Another thing factoring in here is that Louisville plays at a pretty slow pace, but considering they’re almost a two-touchdown underdog here, I could see a higher-than-expected pace in this one, which should help us get into the 50s and to the window.
San Jose State at Utah State under 61.5 (-108)
Worst price to bet: Under 61.5 (-110)
This has moved down all day, but I’m happy to piggyback the market here. There are some injury concerns on offense for San Jose State, so that is something to watch. Either way, my model has this game closer to the mid-50s than 60s. Utah State has some decent-looking offensive numbers this season (43rd in EPA per play), but a lot of that has come against some pretty bad defenses. I’m not saying San Jose State is a juggernaut or anything, but I think we might see some struggles down to down in this one.
Houston moneyline (-105) vs. Arizona
Worst price to bet: Houston moneyline (-120)
My model thinks Houston is a strong favorite here. Both of these teams are pretty equal per my numbers, and with Houston playing at home, it’s a no-brainer. Sometimes the analysis is as simple as that. I’m not seeing much of a difference between the two teams. You throw in home-field advantage, and you get Houston close to a field goal favorite.
Tennessee at Alabama over 58.5 (-112)
Worst price to bet: Over 59 (-110)
Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and have very efficient offenses, while the defenses lag behind, which isn’t surprising. That follows the history of both head coaches in this game. Both of these offenses rank inside the top 10 in the country per my numbers, while both defenses rank outside the top 20. Tennessee will want to play fast in this game, and considering they’re more than a touchdown underdog, I think we should see a lot of tempo from them in this matchup.
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Akron at Ball State over 42.5 (-110)
Worst price to bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
These are two of the worst offenses in college football, and neither team plays particularly fast. But my model thinks this total is way too low. It’s not very hard to score into the mid-40s in a college football game, and while these offenses will certainly struggle, I’m not sure either defense is all that good either! It’s a painful play, and it pains me to even add this to the card, but the edge is just too big to ignore here.
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