After winning 10 games in 2024 but missing the playoffs for the second straight year, the Seattle Seahawks made major changes on the offensive side of the ball, specifically their aerial attack. Just over a week after wideout Tyler Lockett was released in early March, quarterback Geno Smith and receiver DK Metcalf were traded on the same day to the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively.
Quarterback Sam Darnold also was signed on that day, and wideout Cooper Kupp was brought onboard 24 hours later. In addition, receiver Tory Horton was selected in the fifth round of the 2025 NFL Draft the following month.
The early returns on the overhaul have been favorable. Seattle enters Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season tied with the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams atop the NFC West with a 4-2 record. The club is 3-0 on the road, and its two losses this year were by a total of seven points, with both coming on scores in the final two minutes – including one on a field goal as time expired.
Darnold, who had a tremendous season with Minnesota last season that earned him a nomination for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, hasn’t disappointed thus far. Drafted third overall in 2018 by the New York Jets, the 28-year-old also spent time with the Carolina Panthers, 49ers and Vikings before signing a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks and is third in the league with 1,541 passing yards through six games.
Kupp’s impact on the team hasn’t been as substantial, but the veteran has been solid. The 32-year-old, who led the NFL in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdown catches (16) while with the Rams in 2021, has averaged 11.3 yards on 23 receptions and hauled in his first scoring pass of the season in last week’s 20-12 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Meanwhile, Horton has made only nine catches in his rookie campaign, but three have been for touchdowns. However, the trio has a tough task in Week 7 against the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football.
The Texans, who are two-time defending AFC South champions, began 2025 with three consecutive losses (all by one score) but have posted back-to-back victories over the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens in which they scored a total of 70 points while permitting a mere 10. Houston is first in the NFL with an average of 12.2 points allowed as it has given up 20 points or fewer in each of its first five contests, while ranking fourth in total defense (265.8 yards allowed) and fifth against the pass (175.2).
But the Texans’ two wins came against teams that are having issues offensively, and they are coming off a bye week and into the hostile environment of Lumen Field. Even though the Seahawks have gone 4-8 at home since the start of the 2024 season, they are fourth in the league in passing offense (252.2 yards per game) and fifth in scoring with an average of 27.7 points.
SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team strongly believes the Seahawks will return to the playoffs this year, as they do so in more than 73% of its projection model’s simulations. But it also feels that a loss on Monday Night Football would be more detrimental to Seattle’s chances than Houston’s.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, believes the Seahawks’ postseason outlook will decrease by almost 12% should they be defeated by the Texans. Houston’s playoff chances, which the model currently have at around 44%, would drop by less than 8% with a setback in Week 7.
|
CHANCES OF MAKING PLAYOFFS |
||||
|
TEAM |
CURRENT |
WITH WEEK 7 WIN |
WITH WEEK 7 LOSS |
DIFFERENCE |
|
Seattle Seahawks |
73.2% |
77.1% |
61.4% |
11.8% |
|
Houston Texans |
44.3% |
53.7% |
36.5% |
7.8% |
A third consecutive AFC South title for the Texans doesn’t look good at the moment, as the model says they finish atop the division in just over 9% of its simulations. It also doesn’t think Seattle’s prospects to win the NFC West are promising, projecting it takes the crown just over 39% of the time.
Neither club’s odds improve much with a win on Monday night, and Houston’s don’t drop dramatically with a loss. Since the Seahawks lost to San Francisco in Week 1, their division title chances decrease by more than 11% should they fall to the Texans.
|
CHANCES OF WINNING NFC WEST |
||||
|
TEAM |
CURRENT |
WITH WEEK 7 WIN |
WITH WEEK 7 LOSS |
DIFFERENCE |
|
Seattle Seahawks |
39.3% |
43.0% |
28.0% |
11.3% |
|
San Francisco 49ers |
24.5% |
27.9% |
15.9% |
8.6% |
|
Los Angeles Rams |
34.2% |
38.0% |
24.6% |
9.6% |
|
2.0% |
3.4% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
CHANCES OF WINNING AFC SOUTH |
||||
|
TEAM |
CURRENT |
WITH WEEK 7 WIN |
WITH WEEK 7 LOSS |
DIFFERENCE |
|
Houston Texans |
9.3% |
12.8% |
6.1% |
3.2% |
|
71.1% |
76.0% |
62.8% |
8.3% |
|
|
Jacksonville Jaguars |
19.6% |
24.6% |
14.4% |
5.2% |
|
Tennessee Titans |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
After falling to 1-2 at home with Week 5’s 38-35 loss to the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Seahawks bounced back with a victory at Jacksonville in which Darnold threw for 295 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Prior to their bye, the Texans routed a Ravens team that was without two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson 44-10 as C.J. Stroud doubled his season total with four touchdown passes, including two to Xavier Hutchinson.
Seattle won four of the five previous games between the teams, most recently posting a 33-13 victory at Houston in Week 14 of the 2021 season. The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites in the latest consensus odds, but the ITL team’s model is leaning toward a cover by the Texans as it projects a 20-18 victory by Seattle.
This news was originally published on this post .
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