The 2025 Kentucky Derby is less than two weeks away, with the first leg of the Triple Crown set for Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs. Deep closers tend to struggle in the Run for the Roses, as 11 of the last 15 winners were in the front half of the field after the opening half-mile. There are also certain post positions to avoid, as the last horse to win from Post No. 1 came in 1986, while the last winner from Post No. 2 was in 1978. Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sandman (8-1) and Sovereignty (8-1). Should you back any of those 2025 Kentucky Derby horses with your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby futures already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez, even though he’s one of the favorites. In fact, Demling says Rodriguez doesn’t even hit the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez could be one of the popular 2025 Kentucky Derby picks as a Bob Baffert horse. Baffert is tied for the most wins in Kentucky Derby history (six), but two of his three Derby victories over the past 20 years were favorites. Rodriguez, who is currently priced at 10-1 odds, is unlikely to move to favorite status for the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Rodriguez is the son of a Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, who won the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Any Kentucky Derby win is impressive, but Authentic’s came in a smaller 15-horse field as the final leg to the Triple Crown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Rodriguez has failed to win three of his five career races and has never started at Churchill Downs. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2025. A fast finish in a horse’s final prep race is often a positive sign heading into the Kentucky Derby, as 20 of the last 27 winners ran the last three furlongs of their final prep race in less than 38 seconds. Luxor Café is among the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders who fit that mold, as he stalked the early leaders before taking the lead on the final turn in his Fukuryu Stakes victory on March 29.
He qualified for this race via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, winning four straight races. Japanese horses are winless in eight starts in the Kentucky Derby since 1995, but Forever Young finished third last year. Luxor Café is the son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, so Demling is high on him as a longshot in the Run for the Roses. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who “has a legit shot.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
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