Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. had never finished better than eighth in four previous Kentucky Derby appearances, but as he pressed the pace with Mystik Dan near the rail in his fifth ride last season, he saw an opening and took it. Hernandez squeezed Mystik Dan by on the rail and held off late charges from Sierra Leone and Forever Young to win the 150th Run for the Roses and etch his name in the record books. Now, he’ll try to become the seventh jockey in history to go back-to-back with Burnham Square on Saturday at Churchill Downs in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET and Burnham Square is 12-1 in the 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
He’s fourth among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses behind Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1). Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and 2025 Kentucky Derby futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling, considering his domination of this race.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, expert analysis
One surprise: Demling is fading Sandman, even though he is third in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025 at 6-1. The horse is a closer who will try to eat up ground in the race’s final half-mile. His best chances are if a speed duel takes place up front, which seems possible considering up to seven horses have frontrunner tendencies.
However, Demling isn’t keen on the talented colt’s chances because he “was still swerving down the stretch in his last race.” Despite winning the Arkansas Derby in March, Sandman might be too green to be successful in a field this big. Other 2025 Kentucky Derby closers appeal more to Demling. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Demling also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby prediction for Sovereignty. The second-place finisher in the Florida Derby is the oddsmakers’ second choice at 5-1 odds, behind only Journalism (3-1). He lost by a length-and-a-quarter to Tappan Street, who was ruled out of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 2025 field due to injury.
Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and enters with two wins and two second place finishes in five career starts. Under regular rider Junior Alvarado, the three-year-old colt could be flying from the back as the horses come down the stretch. With a projected speed dual up front, he may be able to pass tired horses late and finish near the top.
Demling has also locked in his 2025 Kentucky Derby picks for Journalism, the 3-1 favorite. Trainer Michael McCarthy made his Kentucky Derby debut last season with Endlessly and wound up with a respectable ninth-place finish. Jockey Umberto Rispoli was also in the saddle for that trip and that was his best finish after placing 14th with Brooklyn Strong in 2021. However, the expectations will be higher for both with this Santa Anita Derby winner.
Sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin out of Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, Journalism debuted with a third-place finish at Santa Anita in October of last year. He broke his maiden just three weeks later at Del Mar and has since ripped off three graded-stakes wins in a row. However, he’s never raced outside of California and he’s only raced against small fields, so the shipment to Kentucky and 19 competitors could be a shock. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a huge double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby horse profiles
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty
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