Last week, we focused on the players to worry about after the first month. Today, maybe I’ll put a pep in your step by looking at the struggling players you shouldn’t worry about. I’m the life of your fantasy party: Dr. Feelgood.
Again, I make no promises. I’m not saying these players will stop being unlucky or help you win a championship — they don’t deserve to be this bad.
Advertisement
Access The Athletic’s guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball.
Hitters
Brandon Lowe (2B, TB) should be hitting .266 with a .474 slugging percentage, not his actual .203/.305. For his career, his actual stats are .004 from his expected ones. His barrel rate is still very good at 10.8%. His hard-hit rate is well above league average. The barrels are great, even when you adjust for his high K%.
Dylan Crews (OF, WAS) should be hitting .259 with a .468 SLG — in other words, like a rookie considered by many the best prospect in baseball. His barrel rate is 14.8% (average is 7%), and even on a per-PA basis (meaning K% adjusted), he’s 9.6% — twice the MLB average. Of course, he has nine steals, so Crews has a path to be a major asset going forward.
Yordan Alvarez (OF, HOU) has been disappointing, even in his expected stats, but he should be .246/.495 in AVG/SLG (terrible for him). But it’s not his actual .210/.340. His expected stats are a normal one-month variance, and his actual stats are an inexplicable disaster. I’m not buying that a bad lineup impacts his stats to this degree. Baseball is not a team game. It’s hitter vs. pitcher. Who is behind or ahead of him matters for his counting stats, but not his averages.
Salvador Perez (C, KC) should be hitting an absurd .331 with a .604 SLG, 96th-percentile or better. He’s actually hitting .238 with a .373 SLG. Just trade for Perez right now. His barrel rate of 15.3% is almost as high as his strikeout rate (19.1%).
Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CHW) hasn’t been good. His expected stats are just .233/.413. But the barrel rate is a career-high 13.5%. The Ks are out of control at over 30%, but even adjusted for PAs, his 7.1% barrel rate is well above average (4.8%). Generally, almost all barrels are hits. His actual stats are .188/.342. Given his 15 steals, he would be a championship-level asset if he reverts to his expected stats.
Advertisement
Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM) is having his second-best season in expected stats. His hard-hit rate is an absurd 59.4% (98th percentile), and his strikeout rate is a near career-best 17.5% (73rd percentile). The zero steals are disappointing, but in fairness, he’s just an average runner now. The power is very real.
Julio Rodriguez (OF, SEA) is having his best expected stats season. We don’t play expected stats fantasy, but should we? His K rate is a career low. His walk rate is a career high. He should be hitting .252 with a .475 slugging. That’s fine, given he should threaten 30/30.
Adley Rutschman (C, BAL) is also having his best expected stats hitting season (.283/.481 vs. actual .216/.360). The Orioles are just snake-bitten as a whole. But I’d be targeting Rutschman, whom I faded this winter, given that his walks and Ks are almost even.
Mike Trout (OF, LAA) has an expected ISO over .300. His expected average is only .248, but that’s much better than his actual (.179). His K% is pushing 30%, which is evidence of collapse. He’s not the same player he once was, I will stipulate, but he’s still dangerous. He could hit .250 with 40 homers in a full season, pro-rated for injury. He’s on the IL now with what is described as a minor knee injury.
Pitchers
Chris Sale (ATL) has earned a 3.31 expected ERA (4.84 actual ERA), which is what we should have hoped for given his age. His K% is still in the 86th percentile, and his control is in the 81st. His WHIP should be about 1.10 (actual 1.41). Even his velocity is only down about half a mile per hour, which is in line with what should have been expected at age 36.
Bailey Ober (MIN) has an xERA of 3.51 vs. 3.22 last year and 3.63 in 2023. The K%, at under 20%, is a legit worry. He’s lost a little over one mile per hour in velocity but averaged 91.4 mph (only 0.3 mph less than in 2024) in his last start. So I have reasonable hope his K% will positively regress.
Advertisement
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) is the unluckiest pitcher in baseball with an xERA (3.41) that is 2.50 less than his actual ERA. His K% is well above his career average, and his walk rate is below his career average. He’s only 15% rostered on Yahoo, which I get, but he hasn’t been this unlucky. So pick him up in all formats.
(Photo of Julio Rodriguez: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Fantasy Football Week 7 breakouts: Oronde Gadsden II, Xavier Legette, Chimere Dike, more to get on radar now
Week 7 of the Fantasy Football season brought some new players to the forefont with breakout performances that belong on your Fantasy Football radar now. On the Fantasy side, we received more data on how each offense plans to utilize its personnel. Our expectations for backfield touches, targets in the pass game, snap shares, and overall usage are often not met, and that's when we have to pivot.In Week 7, several players jumped on the Fantasy Football radar. This could be the start of something special for some of these players, and you'll want to get well ahead of your Week 8 Fantasy Football waiver wire by putting these players on your radar. For more on every player we discuss below, you'll want to make sure to check out Jamey Eisenberg's in-depth waiver wire column on Monday afternoon.Oronde Gadsden II, TE, […]
NFL Week 7 winners and losers: Chiefs, Eagles rediscover offensive juice as Dolphins, Jets sink to new lows
Another Sunday, another full slate of NFL action nearly in the books. And Week 7 has had no shortage of major storylines so far: After Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals outdueled Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers to kick off this week's schedule, a couple of other surprising teams stole the spotlight, including the Cleveland Browns against the sinking Miami Dolphins.Some results were fairly predictable, like Mike Vrabel leading a decisive win over his old team, the Tennessee Titans, thanks to another crisp performance from quarterback Drake Maye. Others were a bit more eye-opening, like the Los Angeles Rams laying waste to the Jacksonville Jaguars overseas, despite the latter entering the international contest with a promising 4-2 record. And then there were the literal no-contest matchups, like the Kansas City Chiefs blanking the rival Las Vegas Raiders in a […]
WATCH: USWNT’s Rose Lavelle scores golazo free kick to send Gotham FC into NWSL playoffs
Getty Images With the clock winding down and a spot in the NWSL playoffs on the line, NJ/NY Gotham FC needed a magical moment, and midfielder Rose Lavelle provided it. The U.S. women's national team player delivered a stunning equalizer against Racing Louisville FC, which snatched a critical point in a 2-2 draw and ensured Gotham's place in the 2025 NWSL postseason. Lavelle scored the goal off a dead-ball situation. Gotham earned a free kick in a dangerous spot in the final third, and the veteran midfielder took her place over the mark. She struck the ball with her left for a clinical finish, showing off equal parts technical brilliance and sheer will. She showed her veteran presence in a big moment and only needed a little step to get behind a sensational effort. The goalkeeper was frozen for just a […]
Packers-Cardinals takeaways: Green Bay rallies late to stun Cardinals
The Green Bay Packers took their first lead on the game-winning touchdown with 1:50 remaining in a 27-23 road victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.The decisive 10-play, 48-yard drive followed a critical Packers defensive stand on fourth-and-1, when Green Bay stuffed Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s sneak attempt. Arizona had a chance to win it in the final seconds, but Brissett’s final pass sailed out of the back of the end zone.AdvertisementThe win was Green Bay’s (4-1-1) first road victory this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (2-5) suffered their fifth straight loss by a combined 13 points.Packers still don’t pass the eye testThe Packers look little like the team that dominated the Lions and Commanders to begin the season, even if they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat on Sunday in the desert. That’s four consecutive underwhelming performances against teams […]
Chicago Bears defense puts on a show against Saints: ‘It was pretty special’
CHICAGO — On Ben Johnson’s first day as Chicago Bears head coach, he said something indicative of a change at Halas Hall.“It’s clear that modern football in the NFL is quarterback-driven,” Johnson said in January. “That is no secret. You can look at analytics right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio, which has been for 20 plus years.”AdvertisementThat might be true league-wide, by the slimmest of margins, but for the third win in a row during this four-game win streak, the Bears defense was a bigger story than the quarterback.Lovie Smith must be proud.Johnson isn’t changing the calculus to winning in one season. He doesn’t care how, though. He wants to win. So his theory on quarterback EPA over turnover differential may have to wait a bit before making its way to […]
‘They Shut up a lot of that criticism’ 😤 Dak Prescott & Ceedee Lamb PRAISE defense in Cowboys’ WIN
'They Shut up a lot of that criticism' 😤 Dak Prescott & Ceedee Lamb PRAISE defense in Cowboys' WIN | FOX Sports <!--> --> Video Details Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb praised the Dallas Cowboys’ defense after their win, saying, ‘They shut up a lot of the criticism,’ following the victory over the Washington Commanders.. 2 MINS AGO・nfl・1:22
Related
Fantasy Football Week 7 breakouts: Oronde Gadsden II, Xavier Legette, Chimere Dike, more to get on radar now
Week 7 of the Fantasy Football season brought some new players to the forefont with breakout performances that belong on your Fantasy Football radar now. On the Fantasy side, we received more data on how each offense plans to utilize its personnel. Our expectations for backfield touches, targets in the pass game, snap shares, and overall usage are often not met, and that's when we have to pivot.In Week 7, several players jumped on the Fantasy Football radar. This could be the start of something special for some of these players, and you'll want to get well ahead of your Week 8 Fantasy Football waiver wire by putting these players on your radar. For more on every player we discuss below, you'll want to make sure to check out Jamey Eisenberg's in-depth waiver wire column on Monday afternoon.Oronde Gadsden II, TE, […]
NFL Week 7 winners and losers: Chiefs, Eagles rediscover offensive juice as Dolphins, Jets sink to new lows
Another Sunday, another full slate of NFL action nearly in the books. And Week 7 has had no shortage of major storylines so far: After Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals outdueled Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers to kick off this week's schedule, a couple of other surprising teams stole the spotlight, including the Cleveland Browns against the sinking Miami Dolphins.Some results were fairly predictable, like Mike Vrabel leading a decisive win over his old team, the Tennessee Titans, thanks to another crisp performance from quarterback Drake Maye. Others were a bit more eye-opening, like the Los Angeles Rams laying waste to the Jacksonville Jaguars overseas, despite the latter entering the international contest with a promising 4-2 record. And then there were the literal no-contest matchups, like the Kansas City Chiefs blanking the rival Las Vegas Raiders in a […]
WATCH: USWNT’s Rose Lavelle scores golazo free kick to send Gotham FC into NWSL playoffs
Getty Images With the clock winding down and a spot in the NWSL playoffs on the line, NJ/NY Gotham FC needed a magical moment, and midfielder Rose Lavelle provided it. The U.S. women's national team player delivered a stunning equalizer against Racing Louisville FC, which snatched a critical point in a 2-2 draw and ensured Gotham's place in the 2025 NWSL postseason. Lavelle scored the goal off a dead-ball situation. Gotham earned a free kick in a dangerous spot in the final third, and the veteran midfielder took her place over the mark. She struck the ball with her left for a clinical finish, showing off equal parts technical brilliance and sheer will. She showed her veteran presence in a big moment and only needed a little step to get behind a sensational effort. The goalkeeper was frozen for just a […]
Packers-Cardinals takeaways: Green Bay rallies late to stun Cardinals
The Green Bay Packers took their first lead on the game-winning touchdown with 1:50 remaining in a 27-23 road victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.The decisive 10-play, 48-yard drive followed a critical Packers defensive stand on fourth-and-1, when Green Bay stuffed Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s sneak attempt. Arizona had a chance to win it in the final seconds, but Brissett’s final pass sailed out of the back of the end zone.AdvertisementThe win was Green Bay’s (4-1-1) first road victory this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (2-5) suffered their fifth straight loss by a combined 13 points.Packers still don’t pass the eye testThe Packers look little like the team that dominated the Lions and Commanders to begin the season, even if they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat on Sunday in the desert. That’s four consecutive underwhelming performances against teams […]
Chicago Bears defense puts on a show against Saints: ‘It was pretty special’
CHICAGO — On Ben Johnson’s first day as Chicago Bears head coach, he said something indicative of a change at Halas Hall.“It’s clear that modern football in the NFL is quarterback-driven,” Johnson said in January. “That is no secret. You can look at analytics right now, quarterback success is a higher predictor of winning and losing than turnover ratio, which has been for 20 plus years.”AdvertisementThat might be true league-wide, by the slimmest of margins, but for the third win in a row during this four-game win streak, the Bears defense was a bigger story than the quarterback.Lovie Smith must be proud.Johnson isn’t changing the calculus to winning in one season. He doesn’t care how, though. He wants to win. So his theory on quarterback EPA over turnover differential may have to wait a bit before making its way to […]
‘They Shut up a lot of that criticism’ 😤 Dak Prescott & Ceedee Lamb PRAISE defense in Cowboys’ WIN
'They Shut up a lot of that criticism' 😤 Dak Prescott & Ceedee Lamb PRAISE defense in Cowboys' WIN | FOX Sports <!--> --> Video Details Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb praised the Dallas Cowboys’ defense after their win, saying, ‘They shut up a lot of the criticism,’ following the victory over the Washington Commanders.. 2 MINS AGO・nfl・1:22
Be the first to leave a comment