Max Fried aims for his major league-best seventh win when he takes the mound for the New York Yankees against the host Seattle Mariners on Tuesday in the middle contest of their three-game series. Fried (6-0, 1.05 ERA) has been stellar in his first season with the Yankees after spending eight with the Atlanta Braves, as he is tied with three others for the most wins in the majors and leads all pitchers in ERA. Fried has allowed one earned run across 27 2/3 innings over his last four starts. The Mariners counter with Bryan Woo (4-1, 3.25), who is 2-1 in three career turns against New York but was tagged by the Athletics for a season-high five runs over six frames in his last outing.
Sportsbooks have set Woo’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over +127, Under -168), while Fried’s is 5.5 (Over -146, Under +109). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Woo Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play and Fried Over 5.5 as a 3-star play on its five-star scale.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars that would pay plus-money and three others at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Michael Soroka Over 4.5 strikeouts (+101) vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Soroka, who is facing his former team for the first time, will be making just his third start of the season and second since missing the entire month of April with a right biceps strain. The 27-year-old right-hander appeared to be fully recovered in his last outing as he registered eight strikeouts over five innings against the Cleveland Guardians, his highest total since fanning nine batters versus the San Diego Padres in July 2019. Soroka could approach that number as he faces a Braves lineup that includes Austin Riley, who is sixth in the majors with 51 strikeouts.
Ben Brown Under 6.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Marlins (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts
Brown is coming off an outing against the San Francisco Giants in which he recorded a season-high nine strikeouts over five innings. However, it was the first time in seven starts and one relief appearance this year that the 25-year-old righty went Over this number. In fact, Brown has registered more than six strikeouts only twice in 15 starts and eight relief stints during his major-league career.
Jack Leiter Under 5.5 strikeouts (-100) vs. Rockies (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.4 strikeouts
Leiter has gone Over this number just once in his first five starts this season, recording six strikeouts over five innings on Apr. 2 against the Cincinnati Reds. The son of former major league All-Star left-hander Al Leiter, he fanned just three batters across 5 1/3 frames versus the Boston Red Sox in his last outing. The 25-year-old righty registered a total of five strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings in his previous two turns.
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (+106) vs. Angels (9:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
Cease recorded a season-high nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings against the New York Yankees in his last start but exited with a cramp in his forearm. That could be a cause for concern regarding the 29-year-old right-hander, who didn’t go Over this number in any of his previous seven turns this season. Cease finished with Under 7.5 strikeouts in his outing versus the Angels last year, fanning six batters in as many innings.
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