Georgia football 2025: Win total, CFP outlook, and which breakout star could define the season

It is easy to overlook that Georgia won the SEC Championship last season — a feat that was overshadowed by a quick exit in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. But with another loaded roster, the expectations are still high in Athens heading into the 2025 season. Expert Jordan Hill from Dawgs247 joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to break down what success looks like for the Bulldogs this fall.

What are the stakes for Georgia in 2025?

No question Georgia remains a serious threat to win a national championship with Kirby Smart as head coach. The Bulldogs are just two years removed from back-to-back national titles, so anything short of a return to the College Football Playoff would feel like a step back for a program that is accustomed to elite results. But the 2025 season is not championship or bust.

“I would say it has to be a playoff appearance again,” Hill said. “I don’t know necessarily if they have to win the SEC. … I would say if they can win a game (in the CFP) that would probably qualify as a success just because, again, Georgia sort of finds itself in such an interesting situation where there’s no denying they just lost a ton of of playmakers from last year, but then you look at our recruiting rankings and these are four-stars and five-stars that are replacing those guys. So you can’t really expect a ton of fall off.”

Georgia holds the third-best odds to win the national championship at +700, trailing only Ohio State and Texas, per FanDuel Sportsbook. In the SEC title conversation, the Bulldogs (+350) sit just behind Texas (+300).

Breakout player everybody needs to know

While much of the attention will be on quarterback Gunner Stockton and his development as a first-year starter, the Georgia defense could feature a breakout star in defensive tackle Christen Miller. The 6-foot-4, 305-pound redshirt junior started 10 games last season and recorded 27 tackles, including 3.5 for loss and 1.5 sacks. With a clean bill of health, Miller has the potential to become the kind of disruptive interior presence the Bulldogs have missed since their back-to-back national championships.

“It kind of goes back to the point that we were just making about what has kept this defense from being — they’ve been really good, but not phenomenal, right?” Hill said. “And I think they haven’t had that Jalen Carter, they haven’t had that Jordan Davis. And Christen Miller is that guy that has that opportunity to be that. I thought he was really impressive last year. He played through a shoulder injury that he suffered in November. There’s no telling how much pain he was in (against Notre Dame). He had five tackles, he batted a pass at the line.”

Miller rated as a Top247 prospect coming out of Ellenwood (Ga.) Cedar Grove in the 2022 class. He ranked as the No. 140 overall recruit and No. 20 defensive lineman.

Win total outlook

The projected win total for Georgia is 9.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, with the juice on the over. Aside from the annual Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry against Georgia Tech, the non-conference slate lacks a marquee opponent.

“If they can survive some of these road tests in the SEC — at Tennessee, at Auburn — and then try to take care of a majority of these at home, the big ones being Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama, the road is pretty manageable, all things considered,” Hill said.

Kirby Smart is just 1-6 against Alabama, which includes a 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa last September.

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