NFL offseason power rankings: No. 17 Seattle Seahawks bank on QB swap for Sam Darnold

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The Seattle Seahawks won 10 games and almost made the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s first season as their head coach. They didn’t act like it after the season was over.

Most 10-win teams don’t make major changes. The Seahawks made a couple. They swapped out quarterbacks, trading away Geno Smith and then paying Sam Darnold in free agency. Smith wanted a new contract, but it’s not like he got that much more from the Raiders than Seattle paid Darnold. The Seahawks made a choice to move on to the younger Darnold. Then the Seahawks traded away perhaps their most marketable star, receiver DK Metcalf. They got a second-round pick in return, which wasn’t the kind of offer they couldn’t refuse. They just wanted to be done with Metcalf before they had to give him another contract, and Metcalf wanted out too. The Seahawks could have run it back with Smith and Metcalf. It wouldn’t have been cheap, but they could have figured it out. They chose a different path.

That’s not how most NFL teams operate. Teams will talk themselves into the idea they’re closer than they actually are, and stick with the status quo to avoid second guessing. Give the Seahawks credit for being bold.

“We kept a mentality throughout, why are we making these decisions?” Macdonald said. “If we go down this road, what does it look like? Is it best for our team? That’s the criteria. It seemed like it happened really quickly but we feel like we went through the process the right way and made the best decision for us.”

[Get more Seattle news: Seahawks team feed]

The quarterback switch was interesting because the team talked up Smith in the offseason, then bailed when the price got too steep. Smith was traded for a third-round pick, then got a two-year, $75 million extension from the Raiders. Darnold, about seven years younger and coming off a huge season with the Vikings, was signed for $100.5 million over three years. The Seahawks gave up familiarity, but got younger and cheaper at the position while acquiring a top-100 draft pick. It could backfire if Darnold can’t replicate his fantastic season outside of a great environment with the Vikings.

The Seahawks have been in the middle of a gradual transition for a few seasons. Over the past few years Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll departed, along with any other remaining members of the team’s mini-dynasty of the 2010s like Bobby Wagner. Popular receiver Tyler Lockett was released this offseason. The defense underwent an identity change in Macdonald’s first season as coach. Then came the big trades that sent off Smith and Metcalf, which led to the Darnold addition.

Up to now, the Seahawks have remained competitive. It’s not easy to win 10 games. Seattle hopes that though some more changes, the ceiling gets a little higher.

Offseason grade

The Seahawks offense will look different. Last season Geno Smith was throwing to DK Metcalf, and both were traded away. Sam Darnold steps in as the team’s new quarterback and he didn’t come cheap. Darnold had a more productive 2024 season, but is he a better quarterback than Smith? The Seahawks hope so. There was also an offensive coordinator change to Klint Kubiak, who comes over from the Saints. The big free agent additions other than Darnold were two players who the Seahawks are hoping have at least one more good season left at the end of great careers: receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence. Neither one is a sure thing. The Rams had no interest in bringing Kupp back (and his ability from the slot is oddly duplicitous with 2024 Seahawks breakout star Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and Lawrence had seven sacks in 21 games over the last two seasons with the Cowboys. Seattle put a priority on re-signing free agent linebacker Ernest Jones IV and defensive tackle Jarran Reed, and were able to retain both. The Seahawks released Tyler Lockett and defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones, a big signing two years ago who didn’t work out. The draft was good. First-rounder Grey Zabel provides needed offensive line help, second-rounders Nick Emmanwori (safety) and Elijah Arroyo (tight end) should be immediate contributors and Jalen Milroe is an intriguing developmental quarterback in the third round.

Grade: B-

Quarterback report

It’s just one ranking, but Pro Football Focus ranked Geno Smith as the 10th-best quarterback in the NFL going into this season and Sam Darnold 26th. That seems like way too wide of a gap, but it shows that Smith is underrated and Darnold has a lot to prove. Was Darnold’s big season (he finished ninth in the MVP voting) a fluke fueled by Kevin O’Connell’s play-calling magic? It was completely beyond Darnold’s previous level, and poor outings in the regular-season finale and a playoff loss rekindled skepticism about what had looked like a true breakout. Mike Macdonald laughably had to affirm during the offseason that his $100.5 million quarterback would be the starter in Week 1. Outside of the Seahawks’ building there isn’t a lot of faith in Darnold coming into the season.

A big factor for Darnold, as it was with Minnesota, will be his synergy with new Seahawks offensive coordinator and play-caller Klint Kubiak. The Seahawks made an unconventional hire at offensive coordinator last season with Ryan Grubb straight from the University of Washington, and they admitted a mistake when they fired Grubb after one season. Kubiak was a hot name early last season when New Orleans’ offense got off to a fast start, and even though the Saints faded badly — injuries played a big role in that — the Seahawks are hopeful that Kubiak can direct a more balanced offense that emphasizes a tough run game, led by a capable running back duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. That could help take pressure off Darnold.

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “QB Geno Smith and WR DK Metcalf (along with Tyler Lockett) are out; QB Sam Darnold and WR Cooper Kupp are in. The Seahawks (+500) have the longest odds to win the NFC West at BetMGM and are a long shot (+180) to make the postseason, but there is hope in the Pacific Northwest. While the Seahawks are slight underdogs in four of their first five games, they do get to face the NFC South and AFC South. Seattle will have plenty of travel though, and doesn’t play consecutive home games until Week 15.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Early Yahoo drafters are treating Kenneth Walker as the RB18. I’m not interested at that price. The Seahawks have a substandard offensive line, and Zach Charbonnet was a more efficient runner and receiver than Walker last year. Walker has also missed multiple games due to injury in each of his three pro seasons. I’ll think about Charbonnet in the later rounds, or skip this backfield altogether.”

Stat to remember

The Seahawks defense was transformed after a midseason trade with the Titans for linebacker Ernest Jones IV. Jones joined the team in Week 8, and from a Week 10 bye on the defense ranked sixth in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per play. It ranked 21st before the bye. Seattle allowed 24.6 points per game before the bye and 18.4 after it. The starkest difference was against the run, with Seattle allowing 139.4 rushing yards before the bye and 99.8 after it.

Jones played well and had a big role in that improvement. There’s a reason Seattle signed him to a three-year, $28.5 million extension. But it seems more likely that the defensive improvement coincided with the team getting used to Mike Macdonald’s new and complicated scheme over the second half of the season. Regardless of what led to the massive improvement, there’s no reason it can’t carry over to 2025.

Burning question

Can Jaxon Smith-Njigba do even more?

Smith-Njigba was a first-round pick in 2023 and had a so-so rookie season. Expectations weren’t overly high for his second season. Then he tied a Seahawks record with 100 receptions and had 1,130 yards and six touchdowns while making a Pro Bowl. Not bad.

The Seahawks might rely even more on Smith-Njigba this season. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone. Metcalf never had fewer than 100 targets in his six Seahawks seasons. Lockett declined last season but still had 49 catches for 600 yards. That’s a lot of production to replace. Cooper Kupp will soak up some of the targets and yards though offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak might have to get creative to get the most out of Kupp and JSN, who both operate from the slot. Also, the Rams not making any effort to bring Kupp back is alarming considering Kupp is 32 years old with a long injury history. Even if Kupp is productive, it seems inevitable that Smith-Njigba’s targets will rise from 137 last season to something well north of 150. He showed last season he can be a high volume producer.

Best-case scenario

We’re in an era of quarterbacks reinventing themselves with their second, third, fourth, or in Sam Darnold’s case, fifth NFL team. Darnold started with the Jets, one of the worst organizations in sports, moved to the Panthers, who are not that much better than the Jets, and then spent a year learning with the 49ers before a fantastic season starting for the Vikings. It’s not that outrageous to believe Darnold, once the third overall pick of the draft, will have a Baker Mayfield type of renaissance that lasts more than one season. Two bad games to end last season don’t eliminate all the strides he made. If Darnold’s new level sticks, the Seahawks are set up well. The defense improved dramatically late last season. The offense could benefit from a change in coordinators. Seattle won 10 games last season and if Darnold continues what we saw last season in Minnesota, the Seahawks could improve and contend for an NFC West title.

Nightmare scenario

Seemingly everyone, other than the Seahawks’ brass, has given up on Sam Darnold due to two bad games to finish last season. And maybe those critics are right. Darnold’s NFL career has had way more failure than success. It would sting to realize early in the season that moving on from Geno Smith to sign Darnold was a big mistake. Perhaps the offense isn’t quite as dynamic without DK Metcalf to stretch the field, and the defense looks more like it did in the first half of last season than the improved version we saw after Seattle’s bye. The main reason teams rarely make bold moves away from what feels safe is they fear being wrong. If Darnold struggles and Seattle slips to a losing season, there will be plenty of questions about their offseason plan.

The crystal ball says

The Seahawks never felt like a 10-win team last season. They profiled as a middle-of-the-road team in many advanced stats. A fairly lucky 6-2 record in games decided by seven points or less probably accounts for the difference. Seattle seems a step behind the 49ers and Rams (and maybe the Cardinals?) in the NFC West, and the NFC has plenty of wild-card contenders this season. Sam Darnold for Geno Smith won’t be the reason the Seahawks’ record slips a bit, but Darnold won’t repeat his 2024 season either. It will all leave the Seahawks pretty much where they were last season, in the middle of the pack.

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